*Official* English Football Season 2011-12

[sledger]

I suppose Arsenal were lucky that Dalglish squandered the best part of £80m on terrible players. That much I would agree with. Otherwise any good fortune they had was surely balanced out by the amount of injuries picked up by key players.

 

[Ikki]

Arsenal are a far better side than Liverpool. Luck doesn't explain why they've finished in the top 4 for 3 seasons running when Liverpool haven't.

Over 1 season? Yeah, luck might have played a part (although you seem to have ignored Arsenal a) selling Fabregas and Nasri at the start of last season and b) the horror start to the season when they had an entire team out through injury, as well as not having their first choice back 4 until about March) over the course of 1 season, but over 3? That represents a clear ability gap between the sides. It's ludicrous to suggest that there isn't a great deal between Arsenal and Liverpool when the league table from the last 3 seasons quite clearly shows there is.

The irony is that midway through the season people were saying Arsenal shouldn't expect to be in the top 4 precisely because they lost players and they were struggling for form and results. There were calls for curtains on Wenger's tenure. People, especially these days, have short memories. 3 years ago Liverpool were the #1 ranked team in Europe and runner up in the EPL. The bulk of the players then are still in the team. There is no reason to think Liverpool shouldn't be aiming for the top 4 and there is no chance that Arsenal are clearly better - not if you actually watch the games - and that Liverpool should not push to rival them.

Arsenal were incredibly lucky in a very important period - in a handful of matches around the time they played the return leg against Liverpool - and on the balance of play didn't deserve to win so many of those matches. Such a thing could have totally derailed their season. Conversely, Liverpool started the first half of the season brilliantly in terms of play but didn't pick up as many points as their balance of play deserved. As it is with football, momentum can be a killer or a rejuvenator. It killed us not to get those points, made us distrust the way we played and we got slack towards the end when it was obvious top 4 aspirations were done with. Ironically, in the cup competitions we did very well because we still had something to play for and we beat the best teams, or those above us, in the Premier league on the way to both cup finals (City, United, Chelsea, Everton). On the other hand Arsenal grew in confidence, it could have all went wrong but didn't. As their rivals tripped up, they consolidated and built upon what they had.

Between the two teams the most important facet was chances taken, and as I said that was down to Van Persie. Take him away and Arsenal are in a whole lot of trouble. Liverpool not only had a better defensive record (3rd best in the league), but they had more chances made. The goals scored column is what killed us - as well as the woodwork struck column. More goals, more points, and a totally different outlook to the season. But it isn't about league position, that is the reflection of the results of the team in that year and not necessarily an accurate reflection of how good that team is or should be. Chelsea, for example, is a team that finished below Arsenal, yet I would rate them ahead of both us and Arsenal.

I suppose Arsenal were lucky that Dalglish squandered the best part of £80m on terrible players. That much I would agree with. Otherwise any good fortune they had was surely balanced out by the amount of injuries picked up by key players.

Liverpool had their best player out for most of the season (Lucas) and plenty of injuries to others (Gerrard, Johnson, Agger, Kelly, Adam) and lest we forget a big period of suspension for Suarez.

You give us Van Persie and the two teams fortunes are swapped/reversed. The efforts of one player, as good as he was last year, being the difference is not a strong point to argue one 'team' being clearly better than another.

I dislike this talk in general, because it is incredibly speculative. But other fans talking about how Liverpool should be happy to be 6th is just well...nevermind. We'll see who is right in time.

 

[sledger]

All you're doing is making arguments based on "ifs" and "buts".

If Liverpool scored more goals...

If Arsenal lost all their confidence...

If Suarez wasn't a racist...

If Liverpool had Van Persie...

 

[Ikki]

I guess it is. But, so what? You're doing the same. "If Liverpool are as bad as they were last year...if Van Persie continues to score at this rate, etc".

Just because Arsenal were much better than us last year in terms of accruing points it doesn't mean they are or will be much better than us this year. That the main difference between the two teams was that Liverpool were amongst the worst chance takers across all the top leagues in Europe - despite being amongst the best in Europe for creating chances - and that Arsenal, conversely, had a player who was the voted the best in the league because he took what little his team gave him and converted it into goals.

Basically, I don't envision us being that wasteful in front of goal for a second season running. It isn't going to happen and I wouldn't be surprised if Suarez has 20 goals in the league alone next year.

 

[sledger]

I guess it is. But, so what? You're doing the same. "If Liverpool are as bad as they were last year...if Van Persie continues to score at this rate, etc".

Don't create a straw man, I didn't say anything of the sort. My view on the matter is that Arsenal were comfortably better than Liverpool last season, and until now I see little to convince me that things will be any different in the immediate future.

That the main difference between the two teams was that Liverpool were amongst the worst chance takers across all the top leagues in Europe - despite being amongst the best in Europe for creating chances - and that Arsenal, conversely, had a player who was the voted the best in the league because he took what little his team gave him and converted it into goals.

Converting chances is probably one of the most important things to consider when considering the quality of a team in my opinion. We've had this out before, so let's not do it again. You may believe that creating a fantastic amount of chances and missing the majority of them is indicative of a good team, I do not.

 

[marc71178]

All you're doing is making arguments based on "ifs" and "buts".

If Liverpool scored more goals...

If Arsenal lost all their confidence...

If Suarez wasn't a racist...

If Liverpool had Van Persie...

If Lucas is your best player then you've serious issues anyway!

 

[Ikki]

Don't create a straw man, I didn't say anything of the sort. My view on the matter is that Arsenal were comfortably better than Liverpool last season, and until now I see little to convince me that things will be any different in the immediate future.

The assumption that things will remain the same is an 'if' in itself. Why should it? I don't envisage Liverpool being that wasteful two seasons in a row. Although it is an expectation of change, I think there is a bigger chance we will be more prolific and that is likely to lead to more points.

Putting it simply, last year was just a freak season in terms of us not scoring considering the amount of chances we created. If our defence is still about the 3rd/4th best in the league, we still create the same or similar amount of chances, then putting even a fraction - in terms of proportion - of those chances away leads to a radically different season. I'm not predicting we turn to Barcelona overnight, just that we're probably more likely to score more goals next season than we are to remain profligate.

Converting chances is probably one of the most important things to consider when considering the quality of a team in my opinion. We've had this out before, so let's not do it again. You may believe that creating a fantastic amount of chances and missing the majority of them is indicative of a good team, I do not.

Well, this is where we disagree I guess. I think at this level, in top clubs, such wastefulness is incredibly rare. To have that occur two seasons in a row is unheard of. You can't guarantee goals, but you can set up a team to create the conditions for goals to occur. And Liverpool did that wonderfully. As I say, Liverpool-11/12+Van Persie and we stroll in the top 4. That was the difference between top 4 and 8th for us this year - that is how wasteful we were. As a team we're fine, we don't need radical changes.

 

[Furball]

According to Ikki:

Arsenal's season depends on important players not being sold.

In summer 2011, Arsenal sold Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri (as much as I don't like Nasri there's no denying his influence at the start of 2010/11 when Cesc was injured)

Arsenal's season also depends on important players not being injured.

Jack Wilshere didn't kick a ball for Arsenal last season due to injury. Arsenal's defence was also wrecked by injuries - Vermaelen was injured long term, as was Sagna (who has been injured again), and various other niggles to players throughout the season meant that Arsenal had an unsettled back four, and their first choice back four of Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelen and Gibbs probably played together about 10 times over the course of the season.

Now according to Ikki, these two things should have represented a doomsday scenario for Arsenal. Yet Arsenal picked up more points in 2011/12 than in 2010/11, and also finished higher up the table, despite selling two key players last summer and having a ton of injuries.

All the evidence points to Arsenal simply being a much better team than Liverpool. Despite virtually everything that could have gone wrong for Arsenal last season going wrong, they still finished comfortably ahead of Liverpool. The league table does not lie. You can point to Liverpool wasting chances as much as you want, over a 38 game season bad luck tends to even itself out. Liverpool wasted loads of chances because their forward players simply aren't very good, not because they were unlucky.

Liverpool are a vastly inferior side to Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United and they will struggle to overhaul any of those sides next season.

Tottenham might be a myth but they play much better football than Liverpool and have much better players than Liverpool. Modric, van der Vaart, Bale, Lennon and Adebayor would stroll into Liverpool's side. If Tottenham can get Adebayor permanently and make one or two good signings, they'll be right in the mix for the top 4 next season.

Arsenal have already strengthened by bringing in Podolski, and unlike last season, Wenger knows we'll be in the group stages of the Champions League so won't have to wait until the end of the window to do any other spending he wants to do. With Wilshere returning from injury and a hopefully settled back 4, Arsenal are a couple of signings away from a decent title challenge.

Chelsea have just won the Champions League, which seems to have re-invigorated Abramovich's spending. Eden Hazard is already confirmed, they want Hulk, they've signed Marin, they've got Mata, a Torres that looked like he might be on the mend - they'll be an extremely potent attacking force next season.

Manchester City and Manchester United aren't worth writing about - they'll comfortably ahead of the rest of the league for me.

You're expecting Liverpool to challenge the top 4/5, but how exactly are you going to do that? There's very few players at Liverpool that would be automatic starters at any of the other top clubs. Were it not for winning a trophy that no-one else cares about, you'd be staring at a second consecutive season with no European football, your league form's been that ****. You haven't finished top 4 since 2008/09. Given the size of the owners at Manchester City and Chelsea's pockets, how exactly are you going to compete financially with the top clubs, or convince a player that Liverpool represents a better career move than Arsenal or Tottenham?

 

[Jarquis]

Also the difference between ikki's ifs and buts and those mentioned by others are that ikki seems to be expecting a total reversal of fortune (Liverpool to suddenly learn how to finish for example) where as the ifs such as 'If RVP continues to score goals and remain uninjured" are things that have already occurred.
Surely it's easy to relatively easy to understand that things that have happened are much more likely to happen again that a complete reversal.

Unless of course you can't actually comprehend the fact Liverpool aren't as good as you'd like to think and the only reason they had the season they did is because all the luck in the universe conspired to make it so

 

[Johnners]

Not sure what you're on about Ikki, Arsenal are a comfortably better team than us.

 

[GIMH]

I can see what Ikki's saying - for two thirds of the season they were a quality finisher away from matching Arsenal/Tottenham/Chelsea/Newcastle

Of course that's a key part of the game but in theory it doesn't take as much fixing as when you have top finishers but poor players behind them.

However, in the final third of the season Liverpool were dreadful everywhere and this suggests a deeper problem. The Liverpool fans I've spoken to are optimistic about Rodgers but patiently so. They don't expect a CL push this year but expect them to be ready for one the year after. I think that's a reasonable target for a club like them to set and it sounds like he board will give Rodgers time to try and build something rather than expect miracles.

 

[Johnners]

There's no doubt imo we aren't that far away from challenging 5th/6th. Our defence is quite good, getting Lucas back will be a major boost in the midfield, as will a fit Gerrard (fingers crossed) and I'd be most surprised is Suarez blew as many chances next season as he did in the one just gone. Biggest problem is imo the lack of quality outside those few key players in the midfield and up front.

 

[Uppercut]

The difference between Arsenal and Liverpool this year was basically Van Persie.

Haha what? They were one of the best teams at passing in the league, while Liverpool were one of the worst.

 

[BoyBrumby]

I still think Rodgers is an, at best, optimistic and, more probably, a terrible appointment. He's another AVB for me (who one notes Liverpool were also interested in); a Mourinho manque. He's done well over a (very) short period for a smaller club, talks a good fight, never actually played the game at the highest level, is steeped in management toss doublespeak and will, one suspects, be found to be similarly short at a higher level.

Be interested to know fred's thoughts on him actually; didn't last too long at the Royals, after all. Fair to say McDermott's done rather better since too.

 

[Uppercut]

It'll be interesting how he gets them playing. According to the Watford fans I know he's always been dogmatic about having his teams play passing football, but he's taking over a team that Dalglish seemed to building towards a very direct style. There could be quite a clear-out, I really can't see him finding a place for guys like Carroll and Adam long-term.

 

[Furball]

I can see what Ikki's saying - for two thirds of the season they were a quality finisher away from matching Arsenal/Tottenham/Chelsea/Newcastle

Of course that's a key part of the game but in theory it doesn't take as much fixing as when you have top finishers but poor players behind them.

However, in the final third of the season Liverpool were dreadful everywhere and this suggests a deeper problem. The Liverpool fans I've spoken to are optimistic about Rodgers but patiently so. They don't expect a CL push this year but expect them to be ready for one the year after. I think that's a reasonable target for a club like them to set and it sounds like he board will give Rodgers time to try and build something rather than expect miracles.

For two thirds of the season Arsenal didn't have a fit first choice back four.

 

[Furball]

It'll be interesting how he gets them playing. According to the Watford fans I know he's always been dogmatic about having his teams play passing football, but he's taking over a team that Dalglish seemed to building towards a very direct style. There could be quite a clear-out, I really can't see him finding a place for guys like Carroll and Adam long-term.

If he can get Adam to play a simple passjng game and cut out the MOTD passes there's a good footballer there.

 

[GIMH]

For two thirds of the season Arsenal didn't have a fit first choice back four.

No doubt and believe me I rate Arsenal above Liverpool. Quite comfortably. Taking Liverpool in isolation it was their finishing that let them down in the first two thirds of the season. Before their horror run started they were up there with the teams outside the top three weren't they?

I don't think the if my aunt had bollocks way of thinking is a good way to assess teams, but I do think Liverpool have got more to work with than their end of season run suggests. That doesn't make them the equal of those other sides above them but of Rodgers is as good as Liverpool's higher ups think then there's no reason they can't make steady progress.

 

[GIMH]

It'll be interesting how he gets them playing. According to the Watford fans I know he's always been dogmatic about having his teams play passing football, but he's taking over a team that Dalglish seemed to building towards a very direct style. There could be quite a clear-out, I really can't see him finding a place for guys like Carroll and Adam long-term.

I dunno about Carroll. If his Cup Final etc was a sign of things to come and not a flash in the pan he can easily fit into a side playing good football, IMO. However, that's a big IF. He deserves the chance to fail next season but you'd have to think Rodgers will be looking for a top class forward as a priority this summer so it'll take a lot of hard wok from Carroll to keep his place.

Already excited about the prem next season. Chelsea are going to be a force, City will probably get better, United are United. Summer will be interesting.

 

[fredfertang]

Already excited about the prem next season. Chelsea are going to be a force, City will probably get better, United are United. Summer will be interesting.

Certainly will be if Mr Zingarevic has a large cheque book he's happy to flash about