Third placed teams

[Magrat Garlick]

paging Pickup, Howe, Uppercut, Cab and all the other saddos who really like spreadsheets more than watching the game

Basically the format is an abomination unto Nuggan, kills the group stages and makes for a random chaos of knockouts, and allows everyone who hates mathematics and logic to spew their "oh it's so confusing" hate. I think I'd prefer having the 4 best group winners get a bye to the quarter-finals and a shorter break between group stage and second round, this would make for top-2 through while also allowing for a bonus to teams who got through the group stages with excellent results.

There's some kind of bizarre permutations in head-to-head being the tie-breaker for the group stage but goal difference for cross-group as well, you could potentially have a second placed team going through with a worse points and GD record than a third-placed team from the same group who is knocked out.

As Brumby said in the England/Wales thread:

We already have 4 points. Any permutation of results leaves us third at worst and in the three world cups with this format 4points has always been enough to go through for any team in third.

Norway got 4 in 94, but somehow managed to come fourth as Italy, Ireland and Mexico all got 4 points too.

Can't really see that being broken, only way group E reaches 4 points is if Ireland upset Italy, and Northern Ireland also have their work cut out to reach 4 points. Sounds like Uppercut will really need the abacus.

 

[GIMH]

Albania will be rooting for a comfortable England win tonight. Going to be interesting how it plays out over the next few days

I remember in 94, Italy were relying on other results to finish as one of the best thirds. Cameroon could have ousted them with a big win over Russia but lost 6-1, and South Korea also could have done but failed to beat Bolivia (though I think in that case it may have been before Italy's game)

Bit of a freak set of results in 94 mind you. Two groups with three teams on six and one with all teams on four with a GD of zero

 

[BoyBrumby]

Think Uruguay qualified with 2 points in 86.

Famously played 89 minutes with 10 men versus yer Sweaties who couldn't break them down.

Although that was under 2 points for a win.

 

[Furball]

This format's been piss. 3rd round of group games has been a complete waste of time, absolutely no tension whatsoever.

If they're going to keep it at 24 teams then the 4 best group winners should qualify for the quarter finals and the 1st knockout round should be the 2 worst winners and the 6 second placed sides.

 

[GIMH]

Could go four groups of six but then it's dead rubber city

Really they should have kept it to 16. Or gone all the way to 32. Then Scotland might have made the play offs

 

[GIMH]

Anyway I make it

Slovakia (Q)
NI (Q)
Albania
Turkey

Haven't checked tables.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

	Third-placed team
1	Slovakia	3	1	1	1	3	-	3	4	0
2	Norn Iron	3	1	0	2	2	-	2	3	0
3	Portugal	3	0	3	0	2	-	2	3	0
4	Turkey	3	1	0	2	2	-	4	3	-2
5	Albania	3	1	0	2	1	-	3	3	-2
6	Sweden	3	0	2	1	2	-	3	2	-1

Asssuming all draws in the other group, which is unlikely but as good a starting point as any.
Either Sweden or Eire has to win to put themselves in, though, while the group E 3rd (whoever it is) is very unlikely (goal swing of a lot) to fall below Turkey.

 

[GIMH]

So it looks like NI will likely play France am I right?

 

[Magrat Garlick]

I've got that as well barring a group E upset

Also Wales - Turkey, Croatia - 3rd placed F and Germany - Slovakia (repeat of the pre-tournament friendly)

A group E upset would knock Turkey out, move NI to that spot and send the group E third to play France.

 

[Pothas]

How crazy lucky are Turkey.

 

[GIMH]

Croatia have looked good. Pre tournament I'd have expected sides to rather face them than us but not now. Still, finishing first, second or third in F seems like there's no easy option. Italy, England or Croatia. All about going through.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

How crazy lucky are Turkey.

all the way from qualifying

Although I guess they beat Netherlands reasonably fair and square, no team should qualify for an international tournament after a 3-0 loss in Reykjavík

 

[Furball]

Could go four groups of six but then it's dead rubber city

Really they should have kept it to 16. Or gone all the way to 32. Then Scotland might have made the play offs

It could expand to 48 teams and we'd find a way to not qualify.

 

[GIMH]

All thirds finishing with at least three points seems to defy what was tipped before the tournament. General thought process seemed to be one win gets you through

 

[Furball]

For the third placed teams I reckon the first tiebreaker for teams who finish level on points should be games won.

 

[GIMH]

I dunno mate. Three points for a win already gives you that advantage.

 

[Furball]

I don't think teams who draw 3 games should progress at the expense of teams who win a game.

 

[GIMH]

It is what it is. At least we have three points for a win. At Italia 90 Netherlands were ranked above Uruguay who had a win and a draw.

I mean on the flipside should a side who hasn't lost go out over a side who has lost twice?

Also it's Turkey not Albania who Portugal have knocked out

 

[Lillian Thomson]

How crazy lucky are Turkey.

Not very judging by Ireland beating Italy reserves with a last minute goal.

 

[Furball]

It is what it is. At least we have three points for a win. At Italia 90 Netherlands were ranked above Uruguay who had a win and a draw.

I mean on the flipside should a side who hasn't lost go out over a side who has lost twice?

Also it's Turkey not Albania who Portugal have knocked out

Winning is more important than not losing IMO.