***Official*** Australia in South Africa

[Neil Pickup]

A 200+ lead has been achieved 300 times - 301 including the current game at the Wanderers.

There have been 5 defeats: the three famous follow-on wins, Kingsmead 1950 as mentioned, and the Leather Jacket Test, which doesn't count. There have been 219 wins, 200 of them analysed earlier by our filters, so therefore there are 19 wins when a team has batted again, and then bowled the opposition out in the fourth. I now need to analyse the 76 drawn games and work out how many of them have been three-innings draws (eg St John's 2004 - Lara's 400*) and how many have been four-innings draws (eg St John's 2009).

EDIT - this 76 is reduced to 61 if I remove weather-affected games that were 2-innings draws.

Of these 61, there are 40 three-innings draws and 20 four-innings draws (I know that makes 60, I found another wet 2-innings draw). Yes, I did go through every last one of the 61 scorecards manually.

Of these 20 four-innings draws, there are 13 already accounted for by the following on, so we have seven instances of a four-innings draw when a team has not enforced the follow-on, batting on instead. Therefore we have 40 more draws to add when the follow-on is enforced.

AFTER A FOLLOW ON - W 200 D 53 L 3 (256)
AFTER BATTING ON - W 19 D 7 L 1 (27)
WEATHER AFFECTED (no third innings) - 16 = 299 matches + leather jacket test.

There we have a 26% draw rate batting on, and a 21% draw rate enforcing.
The win rate is 70% win rate batting on, and a 78% win rate enforcing.
The (not lose) rate is 96% batting on, and 99% enforcing.

The only thing in favour of not enforcing is the sheer scale of the disaster if you lose after enforcing the follow on.

 

[Uppercut]

Of these 61, there are 40 three-innings draws and 20 four-innings draws (I know that makes 60, I found another wet 2-innings draw). Yes, I did go through every last one of the 61 scorecards manually.

Of these 20 four-innings draws, there are 13 already accounted for by the following on, so we have seven instances of a four-innings draw when a team has not enforced the follow-on, batting on instead. Therefore we have 40 more draws to add when the follow-on is enforced.

AFTER A FOLLOW ON - W 200 D 53 L 3 (256)
AFTER BATTING ON - W 19 D 7 L 1 (27)
WEATHER AFFECTED (no third innings) - 16 = 299 matches + leather jacket test.

There we have a 26% draw rate batting on, and a 21% draw rate enforcing.
The win rate is 70% win rate batting on, and a 78% win rate enforcing.
The (not lose) rate is 96% batting on, and 99% enforcing.

The only thing in favour of not enforcing is the sheer scale of the disaster if you lose after enforcing the follow on.

Great work there Neil. So statistically, there's not a great deal in favour of Ponting's decision either. Handing South Africa the best bowling conditions of the game was surely the worst part of it though.

 

[Nate]

Not that worried here tbh. Last day pitch whilch includes a morning session to come. If we don't get some early on, a bit of panic may set in...

 

[inbox24]

South Africans have got this in the bag, congratulations well played.

I think we should pick 2 specialist bowlers for the next game, drop Hilfenhaus and bring in Hopes FTW.

 

[stephen]

Of these 61, there are 40 three-innings draws and 20 four-innings draws (I know that makes 60, I found another wet 2-innings draw). Yes, I did go through every last one of the 61 scorecards manually.

Of these 20 four-innings draws, there are 13 already accounted for by the following on, so we have seven instances of a four-innings draw when a team has not enforced the follow-on, batting on instead. Therefore we have 40 more draws to add when the follow-on is enforced.

AFTER A FOLLOW ON - W 200 D 53 L 3 (256)
AFTER BATTING ON - W 19 D 7 L 1 (27)
WEATHER AFFECTED (no third innings) - 16 = 299 matches + leather jacket test.

There we have a 26% draw rate batting on, and a 21% draw rate enforcing.
The win rate is 70% win rate batting on, and a 78% win rate enforcing.
The (not lose) rate is 96% batting on, and 99% enforcing.

The only thing in favour of not enforcing is the sheer scale of the disaster if you lose after enforcing the follow on.

Nice work there. Though with both situations there aren't really enough losses to say that losing is really more likely after enforcing the follow on. It really is an abberation. You can say though that drawing is more likely after batting through and not enforcing the follow on.

 

[Top_Cat]

Ascendency is still with Aus but this day was South Africa's. Some ordinary batting from Aus but SA had them under the kosh too, was great work by them. Tomorrow morning Aus need some 90's style suffocation bowling, I reckon. Even if there' no wicket or chances in the first hour, if SA aren't able to hit them off the square, they'll feel the pressure.

Key batter to force the pace will be Kallis, he's been on a slow-burn for a while now and you feel he's in good touch. Key bowler is Midge. If he's the speadhead now, situations like this are when the spearhead is expected to do the job for his team and take a wicket or two. And that's all it'll take, I reckon. If Aus take two early, game is essentially over.

 

[Woodster]

Would be shocked should Australia blow it from here, 454 is a huge total to chase down in the 4th innings. Obviously the longer Amla and Kallis stay together the more nervous this inexperienced bowling attack will become. Would still expect the Aussies to edge home.

 

[JBH001]

Agree with Woodster.

454 is huge, and there is the morning session to come. Smart money must be on a deserved Australian victory.

 

[JBH001]

Where are all the SA posters, BTW? The forum seems to be dominated by all the annoying Aussies!

Haha! Yeah! SFA sign of a SA presence on this thread.

 

[pasag]

There's rarley huge amounts of SA posting in match threads. Look at when India toured there (Who Posted? - Cricket Web).

 

[popepouri]

Haha! Yeah! SFA sign of a SA presence on this thread.

As Harris said, second new ball is key. Reckon if SA get through that unscathed, they're in for a shout.

 

[Burgey]

Interesting how the two attacks in this game have been mirror images of each other.

In the 1st innings, Australia bowled a fuiller length, SA shorter and the results spoke for themselves.

In the 2nd innings, SA bowled generally fuller and got results, while from what I saw of Australia's intial offerings yesterday, they bowled too short - the quicks at least, I thought North, if anythign, was too full - probably a product of mostly bowling in ODDs.

 

[Uppercut]

Ascendency is still with Aus but this day was South Africa's. Some ordinary batting from Aus but SA had them under the kosh too, was great work by them. Tomorrow morning Aus need some 90's style suffocation bowling, I reckon. Even if there' no wicket or chances in the first hour, if SA aren't able to hit them off the square, they'll feel the pressure.

Key batter to force the pace will be Kallis, he's been on a slow-burn for a while now and you feel he's in good touch. Key bowler is Midge. If he's the speadhead now, situations like this are when the spearhead is expected to do the job for his team and take a wicket or two. And that's all it'll take, I reckon. If Aus take two early, game is essentially over.

Because De Villiers and Duminy aren't capable of seeing South Africa home in awkward run-chases against Australia?

I'd actually be really concerned as an Aussie fan right now. Actually, I'd be majorly pissed off about Ponting not enforcing the follow-on. All four batsmen at the crease so far have looked like they're there for as long as they want. It's a team that are possibly the best at 4th innings run-chasing in the history of tests. Pray for some cloud cover is all I would say.

I'd also be majorly pissed off with Ponting's decision not to stick South Africa in again. I could rant all day about that, but the bottom line is that he had the choice of utilising gloomy, humid conditions with seam and swing abundant and instead decided to bat and hope things were still the same in a day's time.

 

[Top_Cat]

Because De Villiers and Duminy aren't capable of seeing South Africa home in awkward run-chases against Australia?

I'd actually be really concerned as an Aussie fan right now. Actually, I'd be majorly pissed off about Ponting not enforcing the follow-on. All four batsmen at the crease so far have looked like they're there for as long as they want. It's a team that are possibly the best at 4th innings run-chasing in the history of tests. Pray for some cloud cover is all I would say.

I'd also be majorly pissed off with Ponting's decision not to stick South Africa in again. I could rant all day about that, but the bottom line is that he had the choice of utilising gloomy, humid conditions with seam and swing abundant and instead decided to bat and hope things were still the same in a day's time.

Perth != Johannesburg, even if the weather has improved. Anyway, the main reason Duminy and De Villiers were able to bat without a lot of pressure was mainly because they were given such a good start by Smith's ton. They don't have it this time so the pressure is on the two in now and the next two to do most of the work. in conditions which are still decent for bowling, it's going to be tough. I think this attack is better than the one Aus had in Perth too. At least all the members are fit!

Agree that Ponting should have put them back in, though. As everyone has been saying, first session is crucial both both sides.

 

[silentstriker]

There's rarley huge amounts of SA posting in match threads. Look at when India toured there (Who Posted? - Cricket Web).

WTF? 1394 posts by me? Jesus. And look at the top three compared to everyone else.

 

[pasag]

Reckon we'll take a few quick wickets early on and it'll be smooth sailing from there, though Ponting's referral stuff up to Smith at the start yesterday may prove vital.

 

[JimmyGS]

WTF? 1394 posts by me? Jesus. And look at the top three compared to everyone else.

How do you see that?

 

[pasag]

How do you see that?

Click on the number in the Replies column in a forum (eg click on the 2137 for this thread).

 

[howardj]

What a marvellous Monday night's entertainment.

I can honestly say I have no idea how tonight will pan out.

 

[Zinzan]

C'mon SA, 2-200 by stumps

I wasn't too far off to be fair