I think both scenarios are pretty possible, i think its pretty clear that Pietersen hasn't acted very sensibly through this whole incident, he has been childish in his behaviour and the way he has handled this whole episode, Moores will move on to different things after this, but Pietersen has to be the part of the same English side, and lot of them might not have been too impressed with the way he has conducted himself.
So now its upto Pietersen really, what he wants to do, he surely would be English media' favourite punching bag for some time now, and it all now depends whether KP wants to play on for England now, because if he feels alienated after this incident he might decide to go back to South Africa and play for some province there and hope to play for the South Africans in the few years to come, because money won't be a problem for him, thanks to IPL and CL T20.