South Africa or India - Which team has the chance to be Number one ?

[Sanz]

Two teams on the rise, IMO. Which one has a better chance to be number one and dominate the next few years in Test cricket ?

 

[aussie]

Based on Australia's current form, you could say these two teams have already had their battled for the number one spot early this year.

But seriously i believe come the end of next winter, Australia/South Africa/India will all be very even. Honestly can't see India or South Africa running away from Australia to be proclaimed the undisputed # 1 test side.

 

[Richard]

Neither are remotely likely to dominate (ie, win most series with huge aplomb), any more than Australia are, any time soon, but of the two I'd fancy South Africa's chances of being number-one better.

Fact is, though their away form is unrecogniseably better at the moment than it was up to 2001, of their 7 away series' (most recent against each country), India have STILL won just 2 (England, and that could conceivably have gone the other way, and West Indies, and even that wasn't 100% convincing) and lost the other 5 (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka - though had they toured Pakistan as scheduled next year they'd have had a very good chance of reversing that one and you'd have to imagine they'll be favourites when they tour NZ but if NZ get the pitches right they've still got a perfectly decent chance).

If I was picking the toughest place to tour, I'd go Sri Lanka, India, Australia, South Africa currently. However, if I was picking the team most likely to triumph on tour I'd go Australia, South Africa, England, India. That's the reality. India's home play is excellent but not the very best there is, and their away play is still pretty moderate.

Not good enough to be considered top-side material in my book. Aus, SA and India might well be level-ish atop the pile for the next year or so.

 

[BoyBrumby]

India have the better balanced attack, but three of their most important batsmen will probably need replacing sooner rather than later. Hand on heart I think India are the better team at this moment in time, but SA probably have more mileage in them in the years to come.

 

[Dissector]

Well the obvious difference is that India is dependent on batsmen like Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman who will retire soon. The first two have already seen long spells of poor form and no one really knows how well they will hold up in the next 2-3 years. South Africa's top 6 are looking very solid, and are quite young yet fairly experienced as well. The main advantage India has is better spinners but batting is more important than spin. A lot will depend on Yuvraj and Badri. If they can emerge as test-class players very quickly then India might still do well and even become no.1.

 

[Richard]

I honestly believe that right now Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma are at least as good as Steyn and Ntini. Certainly they're far more reliable and better worth a bet in difficult seam-bowling conditions, though they're not as devastating-when-conditions-are-right as Steyn especially is.

And certainly Munaf Patel if his fitness was better would probably be better than Morne Morkel too.

Less sure about Sreesanth et al, never really rated him or any other (currently available) Indian seamer away from the above three. But SA don't exactly have seamers coming out of their ears either - Andre Nel's completely lost it of late, Zondeki has never terribly impressed me and the next in line appear to be bowlers who I don't really know a hell of a lot about. Though there's some lad who was apparently almost as good as Tim Southee at the u19 WC not so long ago who might be able to step-up to the plate in a year or two. Hopefully. But it's a far cry from the time when they had Donalds, de Villierses, Matthewses, McMillans, Pollocks, Kluseners, Terbrugges, Haywards and others, all within a few years of each other. The one advantage that they had then and have now is Kallis, of course, who's a pretty good bowler again at the moment having not been for a while.

Clearly, on a turning pitch Harbhajan Singh >>> Harris, and Mishra is of course a wristspinner, though not a classical one with a "gargantuan" Leg-Break delivery. On a non-turner, neither India nor South Africa's spinners should pose any problems to good Test batsmen. Imran Tahir currently appears to be doing his usual follow-a-good-season-with-2-crap-ones routine, but you never know, if he turns-out good, he might be SA's answer to Mishra.

 

[Harry Harrison]

Two teams on the rise, IMO. Which one has a better chance to be number one and dominate the next few years in Test cricket ?

obviously South Africa. Who has doubt about it?

 

[Harry Harrison]

I honestly believe that right now Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma are at least as good as Steyn and Ntini. Certainly they're far more reliable and better worth a bet in difficult seam-bowling conditions, though they're not as devastating-when-conditions-are-right as Steyn especially is.

And certainly Munaf Patel if his fitness was better would probably be better than Morne Morkel too.

Less sure about Sreesanth et al, never really rated him or any other (currently available) Indian seamer away from the above three. But SA don't exactly have seamers coming out of their ears either - Andre Nel's completely lost it of late, Zondeki has never terribly impressed me and the next in line appear to be bowlers who I don't really know a hell of a lot about. Though there's some lad who was apparently almost as good as Tim Southee at the u19 WC not so long ago who might be able to step-up to the plate in a year or two. Hopefully. But it's a far cry from the time when they had Donalds, de Villierses, Matthewses, McMillans, Pollocks, Kluseners, Terbrugges, Haywards and others, all within a few years of each other. The one advantage that they had then and have now is Kallis, of course, who's a pretty good bowler again at the moment having not been for a while.

Clearly, on a turning pitch Harbhajan Singh >>> Harris, and Mishra is of course a wristspinner, though not a classical one with a "gargantuan" Leg-Break delivery. On a non-turner, neither India nor South Africa's spinners should pose any problems to good Test batsmen. Imran Tahir currently appears to be doing his usual follow-a-good-season-with-2-crap-ones routine, but you never know, if he turns-out good, he might be SA's answer to Mishra.

Zaheer Khan + Ishant Sharma = Stayn + Nitini

 

[susudear]

India

No doubt about that. Choke Africa's win in subcontinent has come on non spin conditions. Oh wait till they tour Sri Lanka and get thrashed by Murlli and Mandis.

India have competed Australia even in their prime. Till the good batsmen Tandulkar and Laxmaan are around, they have better chance.

 

[Richard]

Zaheer Khan + Ishant Sharma = Stayn + Nitini

No doubt about that. Choke Africa's win in subcontinent has come on non spin conditions. Oh wait till they tour Sri Lanka and get thrashed by Murlli and Mandis.

Oh dear, more -happy idiots. 2 in 1 day.

 

[Harry Harrison]

Oh dear, more -happy idiots. 2 in 1 day.

Richard one is you, who is the second one?

 

[Bees]

I picked South Africa, but I'm sure that decision was influenced strongly by desire.

Both are two great teams and I'd love to see both succeed. Saffies trying to unglue India from the top or India trying to unglue the Saffies from the top are two scenarios that would give me great joy.

And Australia are always fantastic to have around, because you know you're never safe!

Great times ahead, indeed.

 

[Richard]

Richard one is you, who is the second one?

 

[susudear]

Oh dear, more -happy idiots. 2 in 1 day.

 

[Xuhaib]

Not so sure yet.

 

[Langeveldt]

Not so sure yet.

The pessimist in me says India, but we did very well there in recent times.. Nice to see crickets order getting well and truly shaken up

 

[cricman]

Sri Lanka gets no love? They beat India 2-1

Mendis + Murali is the Best Spin Duo in World Cricket and there batting is sold barring the last series vs Zimbabwe

 

[Langeveldt]

Sri Lanka gets no love? They beat India 2-1

Mendis + Murali is the Best Spin Duo in World Cricket and there batting is sold barring the last series vs Zimbabwe

Very good point, although I'm not sure how long murali has left as a fit and firing test class bowler.. Mendis I think is basically a very scary replacement

 

[Uppercut]

I went for India. While i gave SA the edge for the number two slot before this series began based on recent results, i'd personally have to say the Indian side looks like it has more potential. Ishant, Zaheer, Mishra, Gambhir and Dhoni really do look like quality cricketers. The big test for them is how they deal with the loss of Tendulkar, Dravid and Laxman. The big test for SA is how they deal with the loss of Kallis, Boucher and Ntini. I'd just about back India to have a bit more depth. SA could struggle a bit with all the players who have ****ed off to England.

 

[Richard]

Sri Lanka gets no love? They beat India 2-1

Mendis + Murali is the Best Spin Duo in World Cricket and there batting is sold barring the last series vs Zimbabwe

Lanka's batting isn't really solid though. Sangakkara is obviously outstanding, Mahela Jayawardene is much better than he used to be, and in Vandort, Silva and Dilshan there are batsmen who've always had promise if not always deliverance. Prasanna Jayawardene's an OK-ish lower-order player but no more than that.

However, the Lankan seam-bowling is currently in a very much unsure state. Vaas must surely retire soon, else he'll be bowling on beyond the time he's of use and I'd hate to see that, Maaalinga isn't outstanding, and aside from those two there's never really any great certainty about the pecking-order - Chanaka Welegedara bowled decently on his debut against England but hasn't played since, for example.

Sri Lanka could not even win in West Indies last year. They have still won just 2 serious Test series outside the subcontinent in their quarter-century Test career (NZ '94/95, Zim '99/00). Until very recently, they'd won just 3 games outside the subcontinent - the 1 that game them victory in each of those series' and a one-off Test in England in 1998. They've won 3 in the last 2 years and this has enabled them to earn 1-1 series draws on each occasion, but to be the best side in The World you have to win at least one series away from home. As I say, SL last did that in 1999/2000, and that too against the only team who could be said to be conclusively weaker than them.

As I said, I don't have many doubts that right now SL is the toughest place to tour - they've beaten India recently, beat SA in 2004 and 2006 and I'd back them to do it again at this moment if they were to be given the chance, and I'd also back them to beat Australia. They've also seen-off England without difficulty not so long ago. I don't think it'd be too much to suggest they'd have precious little bother dealing with the current Pakistan, NZ or WI either. But on tour, I'd expect them to struggle in NZ, and as I say above, if NZ get their pitch preparation right and their bowlers hit their straps, I can see India doing likewise.