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His record in Australia is pretty good these days, though.True, but for a long while Kumble had a tough time reaping the success that he had in his early years. The medium pace business, believe it or not, worked successfully as batsman started to realize that he didnt turn the ball much and Kumble's 'rocket ball', the one that skidded on much like Mendis' 'carrom ball' went from being lethal to unthreatening. Kumble has obviously undergone various transformations since his earlier years, that is fairly obvious if you watched him earlier in his career as I did and he flights the ball far more and varies his pace more than he ever did earlier on when he bowled quicker and flatter. He also added a googly later on in his career, that has given him some serious success, largely because it turns more than his stock delivery.
The similarity between Mendis and Kumble is uncanny, although Mendis is far harder to pick and has many more variations. He too bowls flat and quick and doesnt give the ball much air. It works well for him now, but I am sure like Kumble he will have to make various adjustments in the future to maintain his success. However, lets be fair, Kumble has always been ordinary away from home.
What makes you think Mendis won't change too? Every bowler has to eventually. Mendis is reaping the benefits of his mystery right now, yes. As soon as batsmen stop under-estimating him and taking him seriously, I'm sure that'll change. That'll be his real test and it'll happen multiple times in a long career. Warne barely resembled the bowler in 2007 that he was in the early 90's.
Not directed at you but I just find the whole "Oh, he'll be in trouble once batsmen figure him out." a really pointless comment to make. Every bowler gets 'figured out', even Murali. It's how they react to that which shows how good they really are so it remains to be seen what Mendis has up his sleeve.
However, that said, he already has a few things which every good/great/all-time great/world-class bowler has that will give him the best chance of doing well over a long period;
1) He bowls very accurately and has a consistent action
2) He has subtle variation as well as the more exaggerated ones
3) He steps up for the big occasion
4) Has already done well on pitches unfriendly to his style of bowling
5) Doesn't get flustered by a bloke going after him like Sehwag did
Put all that together and you have a bloke who has a heck of a lot of potential. Whether he realises that potential, we'll see.