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Group E - Spain, Germany, Japan, Costa Rica

Who will qualify from the group?


  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .

BoyBrumby

Englishman
So if Japan beat Costa Rica, are they in? What’s the first tie breaker? Goal differential or is it head to head?

edit: looked it up. Surely if records are tied, you should move on if you beat the other team? But Iguess the downside would then be that there would’ve be a lot more dead rubbers given only 3 games per team.
It's how we roll in UEFA, I think every European Nations Championship has been head-to-head results since the tournament expanded to 16 teams in 1996, but FIFA, for whatever reason, has never followed suit.

I don't really have a massively strong opinion one way or the other, think I just prefer goal difference, but that's more out of habit than anything else.

Off the top of my head the only time it's made a difference in qualification was from Euro 96, when the Czech Republic and Italy both finished on 4 points with the latter having a superior goal difference, but the Czechs advanced because they'd defeated Italy 2-1.
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
FIFA i think has used head to head in the past. I remember England couldn’t finish top of the group in 98 once Romania beat us as they had 6 points to our 3 with a game each to go.
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
This is so much fun to watch. I’m always surprised how much I enjoy watching every game in the WC and then my interest seems to completely fall off in between.
In general; do people who know the sport (as well as other sports) think more upsets happen here compared to other sports? Can’t think of another situation where a team ranked 51st can even remotely have a chance of beating a top five team.
Maybe less so than the old days but there’s usually significant cup upsets in English footy season after season where a side from the third or fourth tier knock a Prem side out. And indeed Exeter City beloved by @grecian and @Neil Pickup famously drew 0-0 with Man United when Exeter were fifth tier. I don’t think United were champions of England at the time but they were very much in the elite.

There’s also stuff like Greece in 04 and Leicester in 2016 that are worth looking up
 

Uppercut

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This is so much fun to watch. I’m always surprised how much I enjoy watching every game in the WC and then my interest seems to completely fall off in between.
In general; do people who know the sport (as well as other sports) think more upsets happen here compared to other sports? Can’t think of another situation where a team ranked 51st can even remotely have a chance of beating a top five team.
It’s hard to compare but the short answer is probably yes. The best club teams are getting better at beating average teams very consistently but that’s not really happened at international level. In World Cup games it always feels like both teams have a chance, with the odd exception.

Also almost every country plays football a lot, so the teams around 50th in the world are much better than the equivalent in any other sport. Japan have a bunch of players who are regular starters in top European leagues.
 

BoyBrumby

Englishman
FIFA i think has used head to head in the past. I remember England couldn’t finish top of the group in 98 once Romania beat us as they had 6 points to our 3 with a game each to go.
I genuinely don't remember that, but good knowledge.

Maybe less so than the old days but there’s usually significant cup upsets in English footy season after season where a side from the third or fourth tier knock a Prem side out. And indeed Exeter City beloved by @grecian and @Neil Pickup famously drew 0-0 with Man United when Exeter were fifth tier. I don’t think United were champions of England at the time but they were very much in the elite.

There’s also stuff like Greece in 04 and Leicester in 2016 that are worth looking up
I think the uniquely high premium footy puts on goals makes it particularly susceptible to upsets.

In practically all other football codes (or at least the ones I know a reasonable amount about) if a team dominated possession and territory like Argentina and Germany did against Saudi Arabia and Japan respectively they'd have won easily.

But with the beautiful game a striker can bollocks up his runs and fall foul of the offside rule like Martinez did for the Argies or a keeper can have a blinder like the Japanese custodian did tonight.
 

Uppercut

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The challenge for any sport is making sure the better team doesn’t always win, but that the result doesn’t feel random and meaningless when they don’t. Football is very good at that.
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
It’s hard to compare but the short answer is probably yes. The best club teams are getting better at beating average teams very consistently but that’s not really happened at international level. In World Cup games it always feels like both teams have a chance, with the odd exception.

Also almost every country plays football a lot, so the teams around 50th in the world are much better than the equivalent in any other sport. Japan have a bunch of players who are regular starters in top European leagues.
I think that’s fair. In cricket I can’t imagine a 50th ranked side coming close to beating a top five side in a test match.
 

flibbertyjibber

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I sent a message to the head of German cricket saying if they need a short leg fielder for the future they can call up Neuer, superb ducking technique today for the winner.

Used to play in same team with him before he moved to Germany.
 

JOJOXI

International Vice-Captain
Coupe de France also throws up a few surprises - 4th tier ASM Belfort beating 2nd tier Nancy and then 1st division Montpellier on pens to reach the semi-finals in 19/20. In 17/18 2 3rd tier sides playing each other in the semi-finals among other deep runs by lower-league sides. Think football lends itself more to upsets being low-scoring - even in T20 Cricket - every ball has some meaning - in football you can concede 20 shots, see the keeper pull of a world class performance, have 20% of the ball and win. Would argue its harder to be so obviously the 'inferior' side in a T20 and win. Volleyball/Basketball a lot more high scoring guess its easier to win 1-0 then get the ball in the hoop 30 times compared to opposition doing it 26 times.

Hockey a bit less high-scoring though more so than football - wonder if its prone to shocks - I don't follow hockey at all really.

Worldwide nature of football as Uppercut says probably plays a huge factor too. Comparison to club teams interesting - international tournaments probably more significant in many other sports so wonder if that plays a role too - less uncertainty if international teams are gelling with each other more often - whereas in football international breaks seem to be treated as an inconvinience at times and at this world cup had about a week to prepare. Guess that adds another dynamic to things and the more uncertainties perhaps the greater the scope for an upset.
 

Chubb

International Regular
Hockey a bit less high-scoring though more so than football - wonder if its prone to shocks - I don't follow hockey at all really.
No offside rule means you can just camp out in the D and wait for someone to hit the ball to you. Works like a charm for me. When I watch football I keep expecting someone to be on the back post for a pass but you can’t do that.
 

Bahnz

Hall of Fame Member
Yeah, shocks are definitely rarer in Hockey, you can't really park the bus in front of the goal to the same extent that you can in soccer (nobody really wants to physically get in the way of a de facto cricket ball moving at 130kmh+ with no protective equipment), so teams with better dribbling and finishing skills tend to run riot.
 
Last edited:

andruid

Cricketer Of The Year
I would have thought that head to head pairs well with groups where everybody plays each other home and away. They adopted it at AfCON and it has made for alot of head scratching, and convoluted math to figure out the results you need to break ties
 

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