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DoG's Top 100 Test Bowlers Countdown Thread 100-1

h_hurricane

International Vice-Captain
We've literally had this exact same discussion on here dozens of times, and it's not as simple an answer. Even a slight superiority in bowling can be more valuable despite a large inferiority in batting, practically speaking. The slightly better bowler could make a huge difference in getting an extra wicket that could potentially save far more runs than you're giving up. It definitely depends on the rest of your team but I'd pick the superior bowler every day if he's going to bat 10 or 11 anyway. If picking McGrath over Imran (weird 2 to be choosing from btw) means that you'd have genuine tail enders from 8-11 then picking Imran would be the better choice. I don't see why that would be the case though because if you're going to have one bowler in your team who can't bat then it would be McGrath, or possibly Murali.
Mcgrath takes around 0.4 wickets more than Imran per test match. Let us assume that in every single case the extra wicket taken by Mcgrath is an ATG batsman(Mcgrath was well known for scalping top batsmen, but this is too generous to even him). This translates to Mcgrath getting Lara 4 times in a 5 test series(based on their career head to head). Let us also assume that Imran gets Lara 2 times in a 5 test series by giving away the same number of runs as Mcgrath ( this is a bit harsh to Imran, but explains the wickets per match difference). Mcgrath gets his side 2 more Lara wickets over a 5 test series which translates to 100 runs (20 runs per test match). This is easily less than what Imran scores over him per test match.

I am not taking Bradman as example here as we never know how Mcgrath or Imran would have fared against him.
 

trundler

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McGrath + Marshall is hands down the greatest opening pair I can think of for plenty of reasons. They'd complement each other perfectly. I would have the 2 greatest exponents of 2 unforgiving styles and I'd want those 2 to crush the spirit of a batsman. Plus I'd want Imran to make use of the old ball anyway. I don't see how you can statistically quantify any of that though.
 

TheJediBrah

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Also I agree with whoever said before re. picking Warne over Murali due to batting too, especially in ODIs. You don't pick Warne because he's a better batsman in ODIs, because even more so than in Tests your bottom 4 generally has very little do. If I'm looking for a reason to pick Warne over Murali in ODIs it's fielding.

I'd even consider picking Brad Hogg over Warne in an ODI XI tbh.
 

vcs

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I think Pollock vs. McGrath is an example of why it may not always make sense to pick the slightly inferior ATG bowler with batting skills.

Imran vs. McGrath is a tough one though, Imran probably also brings something unique to the table in terms of bowling alone with reverse swing, being great in Asia etc.
 

trundler

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Also I agree with whoever said before re. picking Warne over Murali due to batting too, especially in ODIs. You don't pick Warne because he's a better batsman in ODIs, because even more so than in Tests your bottom 4 generally has very little do. If I'm looking for a reason to pick Warne over Murali in ODIs it's fielding.

I'd even consider picking Brad Hogg over Warne in an ODI XI tbh.
You seriously need do re-evaluate your life if Jedi Brah is less biased about an Ozzie player than you.
 

TheJediBrah

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Mcgrath takes around 0.4 wickets more than Imran per test match. Let us assume that in every single case the extra wicket taken by Mcgrath is an ATG batsman(Mcgrath was well known for scalping top batsmen, but this is too generous to even him). This translates to Mcgrath getting Lara 4 times in a 5 test series(based on their career head to head). Let us also assume that Imran gets Lara 2 times in a 5 test series by giving away the same number of runs as Mcgrath ( this is a bit harsh to Imran, but explains the wickets per match difference). Mcgrath gets his side 2 more Lara wickets over a 5 test series which translates to 100 runs (20 runs per test match). This is easily less than what Imran scores over him per test match.

I am not taking Bradman as example here as we never know how Mcgrath or Imran would have fared against him.
You're still doing it. I can't fault your maths but it's not that simple. I missed the start of this but why is it a choice between Imran and McGrath? Who are the other tail enders that are getting picked ahead of McGrath? Unless we are so desperate to bat deep that we want a 20+ average batsman at no. 11?
 

trundler

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McGrath has reverse swing too ftr. And a smaller disparity between home and away numbers.

Still don't understand the whole thing since they're not competing for the same spot.
 

TheJediBrah

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McGrath has reverse swing too ftr. And a smaller disparity between home and away numbers.
Also very tenuous to be basing the whole discussion on their career averages as though it's definitive proof that they are similarly skilled bowlers. McGrath is much better in most conditions.

Still don't understand the whole thing since they're not competing for the same spot.
Exactly what I've been thinking this whole time.
 

h_hurricane

International Vice-Captain
You're still doing it. I can't fault your maths but it's not that simple. I missed the start of this but why is it a choice between Imran and McGrath? Who are the other tail enders that are getting picked ahead of McGrath? Unless we are so desperate to bat deep that we want a 20+ average batsman at no. 11?
I agree that it is not that simple :) Between, for me, it was never between Imran and Mcgrath until Steven brought it up. Marshall and Warne are not 20+ average batsmen anyways. All I am doing is having my batting lineup as strong as possible while also picking some of the greatest bowlers ever, giving it as much cushion as possible against any batting collapses. We can agree to disagree. There was nothing better to do than this on a sunday :D
 

stephen

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
As I said earlier, it would have been a simple choice to pick McGrath if their batting would have been close, but it isn't. McGrath's batting was really poor. Running out of partners argument assumes that imran is working with 9, 10, and 11. But doesn't think about his partnership with number 5,6, and 7. The expected number of runs far exceed the very marginal reduction in bowling quality.
I'm interested now, I would like to explore this a bit further and am willing to accept that I could change my mind at the end of this post.

Assuming Gilchrist is batting 7, McGrath never really held his run scoring back.

Assuming the following team (ave in brackets):

Gavaskar (51)
Hobbs (57)
Bradman (100)
Tendulkar (54)
Lara (53)
Sobers (58)
Gilchrist (48)
Hadlee (27)
Marshall (19)
Warne (17)

The team is already on average making 484 runs per match on average. So we look at Imran (38) vs McGrath (7). If the averages were unmoved in this hypothetical tournament vs the Martians, the extra 31 runs is worth an extra 6% to the batting total. This is ignoring the fact that by batting lower down the order, Marshall and Warne are not going to be averaging as much as they did batting at 8 and 9 like they did in real life.

Statistically, McGrath's bowling is 5% better than Imran's bowling on a pure numbers basis and takes 0.4 more wickets per match than Imran. So in this analysis, on average Imran comes out quite a bit further ahead since the extra economy that McGrath offers is roughly only contributing a 1.5% opposition run saving over Imran.

However, this is misleading since the game of cricket is not really played in averages. If it were so, wouldn't we simply play Miller, Imran, Kallis and Sobers as our four batsmen and pick Chappell and Border in our middle order instead?

No we wouldn't, because bowling is more important than batting in test matches. You need 20 wickets (well, at least 10 wickets in theory) to win a test.

But even just looking at batting, the problem with looking at averages for tail enders is that they're very misleading if you're trying to get an idea of how many runs they usually offer to the team. For the top 7, average is a decent approximation of how many runs they will score when they go out to bad. But the lower you go in the batting order, the less likely a batsman is to contribute runs. That's because they're far more likely to end not out. Runs per innings is a measure of what they *actually* output on average. The lower a batsman bats, the wider the gap between their RPI and their average.

Looking at Glenn McGrath's batting stats, he batted in 11th position in 128 innings. He scored 603 runs at 7.6. His runs per innings though was 4.7, giving a whopping 62% difference between his runs per innings and his average due to not outs. In the whole of history, number 11s have contributed 26962 runs at an average of 8.57. They have done so over 5998 innings giving an average RPI value of 4.5. So historically, a number 11 will only score 52.5% of their batting average.

A number 10 will score 76% of their average. A number 9 would score 84% of their average and a number 8 will score 87% of their average.

So let's look at the two tails and adjust based on their batting position:

Name (ave) (RPI based on historic averages)
Imran (38) (33)
Hadlee (27) (23)
Marshall (19) (14)
Warne (17) (9)
Total (101) (79)

Hadlee (27) (23)
Marshall (19) (16)
Warne (17) (13)
McGrath (7) (4)
Total (70) (56)

So the actual RPI difference between these two sides (assuming averages don't change shuffling players up/down the order) is 23 runs in total. Assuming that the top 7 make their averages, they make 421 the two average scores are 500 and 477. The side with Imran in theory makes around 4.8% more runs than the side with McGrath.

But it's not even that simple in Imran's case. He batted a significant proportion of his career in different batting positions. He batted mostly at 6, 7 and 8. Here are his stats in those positions:

Position - innings (ave) (rpi)
6 - 23 (62) (40)
7 - 63 (35) (29)
8 - 30 (27) (24)
All - 126 (38) (30)

Looking at Imran's overall record, his RPI is actually far lower than the average number 8 batsman despite spending a huge proportion of his career batting 6 and 7. Even if we use his career average RPI, we're still looking at the difference in scores between the two sides now being 20 runs in total, or 4% of the batting total.

If we assume that both bowlers take 25% of the wickets in a match, then that means McGrath saves his team a total of 3 runs per innings. Imran is therefore more valuable to this team on average by 17 runs per innings, or roughly 3.5% of the average score of this theoretical ATG side. In a real side Imran becomes even more valuable relatively.

For Imran to be worse for this side than McGrath, he would have to average around 30 with the ball, assuming that Imran bats to his average.

This is of course assuming that the tests that this team plays are all timeless. If they are not timeless and the team averages 477 runs per innings, are you really going to add a slightly inferior bowler for the sake of 20 extra batting runs per innings? I guess that's left to the reader to decide.
 

trundler

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I'll play devils advocate here since I think this sort of conjecture is essentially futile. Cricket doesn't work that way and we all know that. You're not accounting for potential partnerships imran might build nor the fact that his batting improved significantly since his batting #8 days.
 

stephen

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
I'll play devils advocate here since I think this sort of conjecture is essentially futile. Cricket doesn't work that way and we all know that. You're not accounting for potential partnerships imran might build nor the fact that his batting improved significantly since his batting #8 days.
All of that is theoretically taken into account by average and RPI.

And I was using his overall record, not his record batting at 8. He's a much less compelling all round prospect if only his record at 8 is considered.

And despite all of this, he theoretically comes out 17 runs per innings better than picking McGrath.

What I did find interesting was quantifying just how big the difference between RPI and average is when batsmen bat at 8, 9, 10 and 11. Your number 11 basically only scores half their average each innings and the number 10 75% of it. Numbers 8 and 9 are more important, each scoring around 85% of their average each innings. And real world experience suggests that having an 8 and 9 who can bat is way more important than a having a 10 or 11 who can bat.
 

Bolo

State Captain
The effect knocks up. Increase the average of number 11 and number ten sees RPI go up. Best is to distribute average evenly if they are reasonable. If they are junk, idk
 

smash84

The Tiger King
All of that is theoretically taken into account by average and RPI.

And I was using his overall record, not his record batting at 8. He's a much less compelling all round prospect if only his record at 8 is considered.

And despite all of this, he theoretically comes out 17 runs per innings better than picking McGrath.

What I did find interesting was quantifying just how big the difference between RPI and average is when batsmen bat at 8, 9, 10 and 11. Your number 11 basically only scores half their average each innings and the number 10 75% of it. Numbers 8 and 9 are more important, each scoring around 85% of their average each innings. And real world experience suggests that having an 8 and 9 who can bat is way more important than a having a 10 or 11 who can bat.
That point was interesting because as his career progressed Imran got much better as a batsman. I am guessing he played most of the number 8 innings in the beginning of his career, when he was just a trundler with no real batting talent either.
 

Bolo

State Captain
So guys, id like to propose a brand new topic to cw. Warne vs Murali.

They are exactly alike to me normally. Warne bats a bit better, Murali bowls a bit better. But I want to know who will cover the stink of Imrans bowling better. I feel like Warne might be a bit better for roads, but Murali a bit better at bowling longer if needed. I have Hadlee, so it's not just the AUS question.
 

ankitj

Hall of Fame Member
Imran had the greatest peak of any bowler since WWI. Check: http://www.relianceiccrankings.com/alltime/test/bowling/

Only reason why others like McGrath are rated higher is probably due to lengths of peak. So I don't think you are compromising much on bowling front if you're picking Imran over other bowlers typically ranked ahead of him. It also depends on what you assume about career phase that will be applicable in a fictitious phase. At something like ~3 years peak, Imran is at par with the very best if not the absolute best.
 

trundler

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If you've got Hadlee then you have someone to bowl half the overs anyway. You could pick Hadlee and Murali to bowl long spells with say, Waqar or Tyson (random) or Miller for shock spells.
 

Bolo

State Captain
Imrans peak is the compromise to me. I will get that some days, and filthy 70s medium on others.

Imran Sobers hadlee Marshall ....?
 

SillyCowCorner1

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I'll play devils advocate here since I think this sort of conjecture is essentially futile. Cricket doesn't work that way and we all know that. You're not accounting for potential partnerships imran might build nor the fact that his batting improved significantly since his batting #8 days.
Analytics can take you only so far. At that stage, we don't know the nature of the player. Is his path/progress/effect more linear? Exponential?
 

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