Ashes predictions

[tooextracool]

Flintoff has started to run through sides lately and is far more than a "decent enough stock bowler" - him and Harmison are England's best bowlers.

no he hasnt, hes a good bowler but he simply doesnt have the tools to be a strike bowler, and if england seriously are going to rely on him to be a strike bowler for the ashes series, they're going to have serious problems. either harmison fires from all cylinders, or everyone else bowls to their full potential if they are to stand a chance.

 

[marc71178]

well done in leaving out the entire series in SA though, makes your claims look even more ludicrous. and instead of accusing others of not watching the game, you might actually want to watch his performance at lords against NZ, which was clearly match winning for anyone who is capable of judging a bowler by performance instead of match figures.

I've just noticed the one where he had that terrible injury is counted as a "poor" match - not sure on what basis that is?

 

[Zinzan]

i get offended every time i see things like this. no one is backing the english, not even ourselves. well apart from me. Furthermore poeple are taking us for joke.
loyalty for you

They are just being realistic ...thats all.

 

[Zinzan]

Mostly complete tosh there, also a whitewash is any series where you win and your opponent fails to score - that includes 3-0.

Incorrect......a whitewash means winning EVERY game in the series....

 

[Zinzan]

Unless weather intervenes - although highly unlikely or there are injuries to the likes of Mcgrath, Warne or Gilchrist, I predict 5-0 to Australia.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Unless weather intervenes - although highly unlikely or there are injuries to the likes of Mcgrath, Warne or Gilchrist, I predict 5-0 to Australia.

I really can't see it, even if you exclude the possibility of injuries to key personnel & the weather. By common consent (& ICC rankings) this is the best England team for some time & even during our numerous 90s nadirs we were never whitewashed.

I think we'll need too many of our players to be at the peak of their form over too long a period to be consistently competitive over a 5 test series, but I think we can certainly take at least a test (& hopefully a live one) off the Aussies.

 

[Zinzan]

I really can't see it, even if you exclude the possibility of injuries to key personnel & the weather. By common consent (& ICC rankings) this is the best England team for some time & even during our numerous 90s nadirs we were never whitewashed.

I think we'll need too many of our players to be at the peak of their form over too long a period to be consistently competitive over a 5 test series, but I think we can certainly take at least a test (& hopefully a live one) off the Aussies.

Undoubtably this is the best English side in the last 10-15 years and you won't get an argument from me against them clearly being the 2nd best test side in the world at the moment.

I just happen to rate this current Australian side with the way they play their test cricket up there with the greatest test sides of all-time.

The other point to consider when looking at previous tours not being white-washes is that Australia score at around 4 an over these days, thus a draw is a less likely outcome than the 90s where they probably scored at around 2.8 to 3 runs an over.

Remember its also not uncommon these days for Australia to concede 400+ to a team when bowling first and still end up with a lead at the end of day 3. That wouldn't have happened often in previous years.

 

[Scaly piscine]

I wouldn't start putting money on England unless I was getting odds of double that.

Let's look at it this way (one bit of stat analysis, then bed):

Each Test - England 25%, Draw 15%, Aus 60%
243 permutations of series results (3 different ways to the power 5)

Joint and cumulative probabilities calculating the probability of an Australian series win at 0.757, England at 0.132 and Draw at 0.111.

Intriguingly, the sets of odds selected give 3-1 and 4-1 to Australia as jointly most likely scores, with probablities of 0.162, or 5.17:1. A nil-nil draw is 13,168:1.

That's odds of 0.32:1, 6.60:1 and 7.97:1 respectively.

Feel free to suggest any other game percentages, to which I can model the result accordingly.

That assumes the Tests are independent which they aren't. Out of interest does anyone have the odds for previous Ashes series (that's before the series themselves before some smart alec comes up with odds of infinity for an England win)?

 

[Neil Pickup]

That assumes the Tests are independent which they aren't. Out of interest does anyone have the odds for previous Ashes series (that's before the series themselves before some smart alec comes up with odds of infinity for an England win)?

I did consider independence, but had neither the time nor inclination to devise a sensible set of formulae.

 

[Link]

They are just being realistic ...thats all.

that hurt..... i think im the only englishman around here

 

[wpdavid]

Undoubtably this is the best English side in the last 10-15 years and you won't get an argument from me against them clearly being the 2nd best test side in the world at the moment.

I just happen to rate this current Australian side with the way they play their test cricket up there with the greatest test sides of all-time.

The other point to consider when looking at previous tours not being white-washes is that Australia score at around 4 an over these days, thus a draw is a less likely outcome than the 90s where they probably scored at around 2.8 to 3 runs an over.

Remember its also not uncommon these days for Australia to concede 400+ to a team when bowling first and still end up with a lead at the end of day 3. That wouldn't have happened often in previous years.

I think that's pretty fair. England could be more competitive than in the last 2 Ashes series but still go down 5-0.

 

[Link]

I think that's pretty fair. England could be more competitive than in the last 2 Ashes series but still go down 5-0.

i will eat my shoes if that happens,
do you know what, i will video it and put it on here

 

[tooextracool]

I've just noticed the one where he had that terrible injury is counted as a "poor" match - not sure on what basis that is?

especially considering that the wicket he took was the only wicket they took until the last few overs on that day.

 

[wpdavid]

i will eat my shoes if that happens,
do you know what, i will video it and put it on here

If you must. I'll happily take your word for it, if that's OK.

 

[Link]

If you must. I'll happily take your word for it, if that's OK.

its fine

 

[Top_Cat]

especially considering that the wicket he took was the only wicket they took until the last few overs on that day.

Exactly. Counting that match as a 'poor' match when he only bowled 7 overs in the whole match due to a horrific knee injury and just about took the only wicket for the day is very poor form. Who's to say he wouldn'thave taken more wickets? Until his injury, he was certainly bowling well.

 

[SJS]

I wouldn't start putting money on England unless I was getting odds of double that.

Let's look at it this way (one bit of stat analysis, then bed):

Each Test - England 25%, Draw 15%, Aus 60%
243 permutations of series results (3 different ways to the power 5)

Joint and cumulative probabilities calculating the probability of an Australian series win at 0.757, England at 0.132 and Draw at 0.111.

Intriguingly, the sets of odds selected give 3-1 and 4-1 to Australia as jointly most likely scores, with probablities of 0.162, or 5.17:1. A nil-nil draw is 13,168:1.

That's odds of 0.32:1, 6.60:1 and 7.97:1 respectively.

Feel free to suggest any other game percentages, to which I can model the result accordingly.

Without going into the calculations, I have similar sentiments on what are acceptable odds for England or conversely what are England's chances.

 

[SJS]

i will eat my shoes if that happens,
do you know what, i will video it and put it on here

Its highly unlikely that you'll have to but I wouldnt bet my life on it. I hope your shoes are well cooked

 

[12th Man]

is there really any point in this poll..I would be shocked if ANYONE would pick anything other than an Australian series win.

Why not alter the poll to break it down into what score the end series result will be!!!

six against 29 ain't so bad

 

[marc71178]

Not sure if any of the 6 are serious.