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Weighted AFL tipping

Mr Casson

Mr Casson

Cricketer Of The Year
Freo
Melbourne
Sydney
Adelaide
Geelong
Richmond
Carlton
Essendon

It's almost stupid to tip the favourites in this comp for any game when you look at the comparative payoffs in terms of opportunity cost. Say for example, the St Kilda and Essendon game, you're risking the chance to win 0.4 against the chance to win 2.0 or thereabouts, which means, given there's no penalty for being wrong, the payoff on Essendon is 5 times higher when it should only be about 2.

As Vimes said a few weeks back, it should change to be -1 for a wrong tip.
 
pasag

pasag

RTDAS
Round 7 Results

Jono 5.34
superkingdave 5.2
dontcloseyoureyes 4.99
Mr Casson 4.67
Clapo 4.01
James90 3.64
Sam Vimes 2.66
Ausage 2.28
alternative 2.03
Voltman 1.75
biased indian 1.75
Matteh 1.5
Irfan 1.36
ripper868 1.05
Boybrumby 0.56

Leaderboard
dontcloseyoureyes 36.06
superkingdave 32.84
jono 30.31
vic_orthdox 28.73
Mr Casson 28.28
James90 25.72
Sam Vimes 22.13
biased indian 21.43
Voltman 20.11
Matteh 19.05
Clapo 18.22
ripper868 17.8
Irfan 17.02
Ausage 16.02
Boybrumby 15.18
alternative 14.26
moregib 14.2
simon 12.88

Round 8
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
Last edited:
pasag

pasag

RTDAS
Casson will be taking over the comp from this round. I think his first order of business is instituting a -1 rule for a wrong tip to even things up a bit, but that's up to him.
 
dontcloseyoureyes

dontcloseyoureyes

BARNES OUT
Meh just wanted to see if I could win doing it this way, now I certainly won't. Especially with the market evening out and learning who the better sides are. I might continue, but for now, I cbf. Have too much **** to do as is.
 
Mr Casson

Mr Casson

Cricketer Of The Year
dontcloseyoureyes said:
Meh just wanted to see if I could win doing it this way, now I certainly won't. Especially with the market evening out and learning who the better sides are. I might continue, but for now, I cbf. Have too much **** to do as is.
Click to expand...
I'll pay the tanty, best one for a while.

You were certainly going to win the way it worked before, as explained in one of my posts a bit further up. That proves your theory well enough. As it stands you'll still do pretty well and will probably win, but if you want to withdraw, up to you.
 
Matteh

Matteh

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
Smudge

Smudge

Hall of Fame Member
Happy to go back to the old method. What's the point if you're not actually attempting to pick the winner of every game?

EDIT: Maybe next season we could try to select via the points start...
 
Last edited:
ripper868

ripper868

International Coach
Round 8
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
superkingdave

superkingdave

Hall of Fame Member
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
Mr Casson

Mr Casson

Cricketer Of The Year
Voltman said:
Happy to go back to the old method. What's the point if you're not actually attempting to pick the winner of every game?

EDIT: Maybe next season we could try to select via the points start...
Click to expand...
Not sure what the first line means, unless you're recognising the flawed nature of the way it has been up until now.

My inclination is to can this comp at the end of Round 12 and switch to line tipping - that gives this comp a few more weeks to see where it ends up and then start anew at roughly the halfway point in the season. If people want to just leave a post in here as to whether they'd prefer that or to continue with weighted odds then I'll go off the majority vote.
 
Ausage

Ausage

Cricketer Of The Year
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
BoyBrumby

BoyBrumby

Englishman
No odds this week?

Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane vs. Geelong
Richmond vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
Smudge

Smudge

Hall of Fame Member
Fremantle vs. Collingwood
Melbourne vs. West Coast
North Melbourne vs. Adelaide
Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney
Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong
Richmond* vs. Hawthorn
St Kilda vs. Essendon
Port Adelaide vs. Carlton
 
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