karan_fromthestands
State Captain
Why?
-
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***Official***Match #35 - New Zealand vs Pakistan - November 4th - Bengaluru
- Thread starter ankitj
- Start date
Interesting insight, wondering wouldn't coaching staff pickup these things and give the bowlers new strategies etc in different conditions
karan_fromthestands
State Captain
That's what I felt. Either that or play him only in conditions that would suit his style of bowling.
jcas0167
International Debutant
Who knows, but DWL setting 180/1 after 25.3 overs doesn't seem a reasonable target in response to 401. Statistically it seems a *lot* more likely a side is going to reach 180/1 after 25 overs (not uncommon in T20) than score 402 in an ODI (neither side had scored over 400 before yesterday, Pakistan does have a 399 against Zimbabwe).
Would be interested to know at what point the CricViz win predictor tips in favour of the batting side in that scenario using their approach.
GIMH
Norwood's on Fire
With only one wicket down it seems fairly reasonable.
Adorable Asshole
International Regular
It's the NZ who were choking tho in the match and for last 4 matches.
centurymaker
Cricketer Of The Year
Weather likely to choke NZ....
straw man
Hall of Fame Member
For a 400 v 400 chase there wouldn't be much data, so it might be reasonable to quibble a little on DLS. Off the top of my head, I expect the 'launch later' dynamic in a huge chase might be proportionally less strong than in a chase of say 250. You're effectively launching all the way through and it's not necessarily easy for new batsmen to maintain the very high rate set by previous. Maybe more data will eventually show that.
However in this match, Pakistan ended up almost half way there after half the overs, just one down, so no surprise DLS had them comfortably ahead.
TheBrand
First Class Debutant
I mostly agree with you, but also in the Aus vs Pakistan game, Pak were 175-2 after 25 overs ish chasing 367 and lost quite comfortably by 60 runs.
straw man
Hall of Fame Member
Well yeah, Pakistan weren't 100% chance to win here either. But DLS said they were more than 50%, which is all it takes, and I agree. Probably 60-66% imo. Rain robbed us of our chance, which is disappointing/annoying, but well, rain sucks.
karan_fromthestands
State Captain
Even if we look beyond DLS, Pak had a much higher chance of winning since NZ went with 3 spinners on an absolute road with short boundaries. None of their spinners were looking threatening. Not sure what the equation would've been if NZ went with 3 pacers.
ashley bach
International Captain
Wonder what @trundler thinks of this factorisation.
Moss
International Vice-Captain
Some notes from watching the game at the KSCA. Was a good day at the cricket actually, very enthusiastic Bangalore crowd who showed up in decent numbers for a non-India game, and made a lot of appreciative noise for both sides. I don't believe that pitches like this one do the game any good though - I counted about four balls across innings which swung or moved off the seam. Couple that with the short boundaries, and the bowlers were never in the contest. Some highlights:
-- Lots of cheering for Rachin with some extra excitement over the fact that his parents are from here. If RCB have any sense they'd reel him in and capitalise on the Bangalore association (those who follow the IPL will know this is what RCB are least likely to do). Watching him live, it came to me that he's a reminder of early-days Yuvraj Singh in his ball striking, and how he wants to take the positive option practically every ball (which can also be his downfall)
-- By far the best part of the day was getting to watch Kane. Not the most challenging conditions to bat in but watching him unleash his full range of shots (especially the offside play and hitting the spinners over the top) was worth the price of admission, not sure if I'll get the opportunity to see him live again though one can hope; maybe when NZ visit in 2024. Again, the crowd showed their appreciation for his return and erupted when he took that running catch
-- Fakhar of course overshadowed both of them - very Gayle/Sehwag-esque innings in how he simply took the game away. His legside play was just breathtaking to watch, don't think NZ could have done anything much, even yorker length deliveries were being somehow savaged. I don't believe NZ had a sniff as long as he was there. I'd put this along with Fleming's 134* at the Wanderers in 2003 as one of the best WC chasing innings I've seen (that game too was decided by DLS)
-- Was accompanied by my cousin who's spent most of his life in the US, and knows enough about the game without following closely in recent times. Was a reminder of how distance and outsider perspectives can bring brutal honesty - this game was his first look at Ish Sodhi, and he declared him to be the worst bowler he'd ever seen! When Sodhi made a characteristic misfield at short fine leg, he wondered aloud what Sodhi was doing in this team, and I had to clarify no, Ish is a frontline bowler who's having one of his bad days! TBF as feared Sodhi was a sitting duck with those short boundaries against the left-hander
-- Both above cousin and another friend put it correctly when they said NZ barely seemed to break a sweat in reaching 400, it seemed too easy and almost low-intensity! Not entirely surprising how things turned out by the end.
-- Sparing a thought for Mohammad Wasim, who looked the only bowler on either side who worked out what length to bowl. Surprisingly slippery too. Pretty much every other bowler looked anodyne.
Despite the NZ loss, was an enjoyable day and didn't leave with a bad feeling. Knew all along NZ's bowling had íssues and this particular ground was always going to cause problems (could say the same about Pakistan really - happy for their lifeline, but don't believe either side deserves to go further than a semifinal spot with the way their bowling is). I just hope that losing after putting up 400 on the board leads to the some introspection from the core group - unwilling to mess with the formula and doing the same things again and expecting different results, a reboot is due after the world cup.
-- Lots of cheering for Rachin with some extra excitement over the fact that his parents are from here. If RCB have any sense they'd reel him in and capitalise on the Bangalore association (those who follow the IPL will know this is what RCB are least likely to do). Watching him live, it came to me that he's a reminder of early-days Yuvraj Singh in his ball striking, and how he wants to take the positive option practically every ball (which can also be his downfall)
-- By far the best part of the day was getting to watch Kane. Not the most challenging conditions to bat in but watching him unleash his full range of shots (especially the offside play and hitting the spinners over the top) was worth the price of admission, not sure if I'll get the opportunity to see him live again though one can hope; maybe when NZ visit in 2024. Again, the crowd showed their appreciation for his return and erupted when he took that running catch
-- Fakhar of course overshadowed both of them - very Gayle/Sehwag-esque innings in how he simply took the game away. His legside play was just breathtaking to watch, don't think NZ could have done anything much, even yorker length deliveries were being somehow savaged. I don't believe NZ had a sniff as long as he was there. I'd put this along with Fleming's 134* at the Wanderers in 2003 as one of the best WC chasing innings I've seen (that game too was decided by DLS)
-- Was accompanied by my cousin who's spent most of his life in the US, and knows enough about the game without following closely in recent times. Was a reminder of how distance and outsider perspectives can bring brutal honesty - this game was his first look at Ish Sodhi, and he declared him to be the worst bowler he'd ever seen! When Sodhi made a characteristic misfield at short fine leg, he wondered aloud what Sodhi was doing in this team, and I had to clarify no, Ish is a frontline bowler who's having one of his bad days! TBF as feared Sodhi was a sitting duck with those short boundaries against the left-hander
-- Both above cousin and another friend put it correctly when they said NZ barely seemed to break a sweat in reaching 400, it seemed too easy and almost low-intensity! Not entirely surprising how things turned out by the end.
-- Sparing a thought for Mohammad Wasim, who looked the only bowler on either side who worked out what length to bowl. Surprisingly slippery too. Pretty much every other bowler looked anodyne.
Despite the NZ loss, was an enjoyable day and didn't leave with a bad feeling. Knew all along NZ's bowling had íssues and this particular ground was always going to cause problems (could say the same about Pakistan really - happy for their lifeline, but don't believe either side deserves to go further than a semifinal spot with the way their bowling is). I just hope that losing after putting up 400 on the board leads to the some introspection from the core group - unwilling to mess with the formula and doing the same things again and expecting different results, a reboot is due after the world cup.
Whilst some of that owes to India's bowling line-up being absolutely red hot, it doesn't help Latham's decision.
Adorable Asshole
International Regular
Judging Sodhi from just one match is just stupid tho.
RossTaylorsBox
Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Great post but I'm still going to blame you personally for the loss.
thierry henry
International Coach
While 200 (or 180) off 25 is obviously achievable if that’s what you’re set as a target, I feel like we might be overestimating how often a team reaches 180 or more for 1 off 25 in a 50 over match. Once you’re in that position 400+ is par. I daresay that much like 400+, a start like that is very rare.