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***Official*** Australia in South Africa 2013/14

Second Spitter

Second Spitter

State Vice-Captain
Arachnodouche said:
Does Moneyball work during playoffs? My understanding is that all those myths about mental strength and x-factors stand justified when it comes to crunch games
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The explantation for Moneyball's lack of success in the playoffs is addressed in points (2) and (3) above. And the fact baseball, fundamentally speaking, is dictated by randomness (certainly more than cricket).

However, Moneyball has been interpreted to imply small payroll. That's not necessarily true. It's about the kind of players you draft/sign. The St. Louis Cardinals arguably used Moneyball principles albeit at a higher payroll to win the 2006 WS.
 
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Ruckus

Ruckus

International Captain
Johnson with a decent chance to take his average down into the 26's for the first time in about 5 years if he can take a few more wickets. One or two more good games and his average will probably be the lowest it's ever been (minus the couple of games when he started off).
 
hendrix

hendrix

Hall of Fame Member
If you use statistics perfectly correctly while understanding variables such as playing conditions/game situation/opposition etc etc, you can select a best team but it's still only a best team out of things that have happened in the past. Things happening in the past is quite a good predictor of things happening in the future, but not necessarily.
 
Prince EWS

Prince EWS

Global Moderator
hendrix said:
If you use statistics perfectly correctly while understanding variables such as playing conditions/game situation/opposition etc etc, you can select a best team but it's still only a best team out of things that have happened in the past. Things happening in the past is quite a good predictor of things happening in the future, but not necessarily.
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Yep. This is why I quite like playing around with stats for retired players - there's no future, only the past is relevant. They're not anywhere near as relevant when you're selecting a team to play in the present or future though, even if you could create a model that took all of cricket's variables into account and gave you an entirely accurate measure of past performance, something we're not even close to anyway.
 
Riggins

Riggins

International Captain
Prince EWS said:
Yep. This is why I quite like playing around with stats for retired players - there's no future, only the past is relevant. They're not anywhere near as relevant when you're selecting a team to play in the present or future though, even if you could create a model that took all of cricket's variables into account and gave you an entirely accurate measure of past performance, something we're not even close to anyway.
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Have you ever done anything taking statistics up to a point in someone's career or in time, and modeled the 'future' based on those, and compared it to what actually happened?
 
Riggins

Riggins

International Captain
You just think AB is going to be not out here. It's just whether we can knock over the ****s at the other end.
 
Ruckus

Ruckus

International Captain
reckon smith should bowl a lot of overs here, the runs don't matter and he could produce a few jaffas on this
 
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