Long post here so I appreciate it if you get through it.
The thing is people will rate other ATG bowlers who have a similar amount of away appearances. If we move Imran's record back to the beginning of the series against India (21 Nov 1979) It's now 26 matches at 21.13. How does that compare to similar match records?
Miller 27 total matches at 25.48
Davidson 27 total matches at 20.10
Lillee 26 total matches at 24.28
Trueman 20 total matches at 26.08
Grimmet 18 total matches at 23.86
Laker 17 total matches at 28.60
Barnes 17 total matches at 17.96
O'Reilly 15 total matches at 21.18
Other names who played less than 26 away matches include: Harold Larwood, Frank Tyson, Ian Bishop & Colin Croft.
These are highly regarded bowlers of which several ex players have said are amongst the best they've ever faced.
Why is Imran being held to a different standard? He can't control the match scheduling of his country or when injuries occur.
This was a solid 8 years of ATG bowling from 27 years old to 35, it's not a short peak.
Sure you can look at a players overall record if you wish but from my opinion, had Imran not changed his action to bowl faster in 1976 while playing county cricket, learned reverse swing bowling around 1977 & improved his bowling ability from 1979 onwards he wouldn't be in the conversation as an ATG. You rate the player when they are the finished product, not when they are called up early. In a similar vein we don't judge Viv Richards, Sachin Tendulkar or Ricky Ponting's overall ability for their last few years when they were over the hill. James Anderson was an average bowler in his first few years before it clicked for him, we don't remember him for that. Khan is the same as a late bloomer.
I know that's your point & I've been agreeing with you the whole time that if it's on bowling alone you pick McGrath.
The reason why I pick option 6 as my 4th bowler is because of the combination of his primary bowling & secondary batting skill (which you also agreed would be handy for a number 8) which has been the point of my discussion the whole time (the overall value of the player to the team not just their bowling). I can also argue his fast old ball bowling (reverse swing) makes him a dangerous option later in the match, which blends well with my opening bowlers who offer different skills (Hadlee accuracy/movement & Marshall pace/movement).
The point about Khan not averaging over 30 anywhere was merely to say that he could perform in all conditions & wasn't just a home ground hero. Singling out McGrath's record in Pakistan was just a cheeky dig, of course I rate McGrath's bowling higher.
How much does it matter what my 4th best bowler (Marshall, Hadlee, Warne > Khan) does with the ball over someone else slightly better in comparison to the additional batting he brings? If my other 3 bowlers are doing the heavy lifting getting out the best batsmen, it might even be more advantageous for me to have Khan who can bowl faster reverse swing at the tail in comparison to McGrath with the old ball. He still has his uses against the batsman as well, he was quite economical (so could be used as a holding bowler while Warne spins his magic at the other end) & he could still get the best out like Gavaskar & G.Chappell (albeit not as well as some other giant killers would).
With regards to match winning performances with batting, how many times do you think someone who batted at 7 or 8 for the vast majority of their wins (23/26 matches) is the one scoring the match winning runs with the bat? Pakistan had a good batting lineup in those days, from the 15 matches Pakistan won in the 4th innings he only batted in 2 of them! He scored the winning runs in one (which you mentioned) & was out for a duck in the other (coincidentally this was his last match). Compare this to all the games they lost in the 4th innings: 7 times. Only in 1 game did they lose by less than 100 runs. Against Australia by 92 runs when they were set a target of 429... (he still scored 45 from 111 balls in that knock btw). So really it was never a personal failure of his that they lost considering the margins of their loss (he still averaged 30 in those 4th innings losses as well). Had he needed to walk out to the middle with 50 or even 100 runs to win & failed that is fair enough but such a situation never arose.
26 matches out of 88 is already a low amount of wins to pick from. Coupled with the fact that test matches between teams of varying ability is most likely going to be won by 50 runs or more (
Over 85% according to this article) The 80's only had a result only 54% of the time (
Source) so a draw is the most likely result. So what about his efforts salvaging a draw in the 4th innings? From his 5 innings, he only got out once!
So how about consistency of getting a start? (20 runs) And how does that compare to a batsman that batted for a similar amount of innings?
Khan was dismissed 47 times out of 126 Innings for 19 runs or less.
Doug Walters (125 innings Average 48.26) dismissed 50 times/125 for 19 or less.
So he's actually slightly more consistent for starts than a very good bat.
What about someone known for being hard to dismiss?
Bill Lawry (123 innings Average 47.15) Lawry got out 47/123 for 19 runs or less.
So it would appear that Khan was no less consistent than some high quality specialist batsmen. I believe I have read somewhere that the difference a batsman makes in his average is the ability to make bigger scores once he has a start.
So between 2 ATG sides with little to split, where the margin of victory is likely to be smaller. Those runs in the tail could make the difference. Imran has shown that he averages 30 even in 4th innings losing tests. So in a 5 match series where variance matters less I am sure that the extra runs he provides could be a difference maker.