wpdavid said:
Bottom line is if I had to pick either Butcher or Key to bat for my life in SA, I'd probably pick Butcher. However, I do think you're being a bit generous to him. In some ways, he's the opposite of Trescothick, who tends to contribute very little in tough situations but cashes in when the odds are in his favour. Butcher, OTOH, seems to switch off when the going is easy but has produced a number of really gutsy knocks - I'm thinking of Tests 1 & 2 in the WI and Trent Bridge & Leeds last year. But he does tend to give it away too often, and, as I said before, he only has himself to blame that he's not fireproof.
Why?
He's failed in three series where he should have cashed-in - The Ashes 2002\03 (whether the team was called "Australia" or not there were still plenty of runs to be had, especially once Warne got injured), the India series that preceded it, and the recent New Zealand series.
I really don't blame him overtly for his failures in New Zealand (2001\02) and Sri Lanka (2003\04), because hardly anyone achieved much in very bowler-friendly conditions at the opposite ends of the spectrum. And equally he's cashed-in big-time against Sri Lanka (2002) and Zimbabwe (2003) and cashed-in pretty well against India (2001\02). He's also conquered tricky batting circumstances aplenty (Australia 2001, South Africa 2003 and West Indies 2003\04).
I seriously think he is as good a player as England could wish for. Averaging 43 in these three years is something not many have managed to do. Vaughan had one golden, very lucky, year; Trescothick had a hell of a lot of luck in 2000, 2001 and 2002 and otherwise has done sod-all in the last 2 years before this summer; and Thorpe (whose average I'm not actually sure of) is about as good as him.
It's a nice situation to have though. I thought Key batted well on Monday, if only because he seemed to have cut out the shots that were getting him out in previous innings this summer, and I'm all for players who are prepared to learn from their mistakes. The way some people write him off because of how he played in Aus 2 years ago is nonsense. It seems pretty clear that his time in Aus last winter has helped his game. Even if this is only against WI, his runs in the CC before he was called up were well beyond what he had ever achieved previously and if he's providing a bit of competition and cover at the top of the order, then that can only be a good thing.
I'd agree with most of this, but as I say earlier, I'm really not sure whether not having a clue as to your best-XI, with vested-interests all around, is a good thing.
I mean, take this for another hypothesis:
Butcher and Key both make plenty of runs in the warm-up games. Butcher is rightly afforded his place in The First Test, but the wicket is dicey, Pollock, Ntini and Nel are almost unplayable and Butcher scores 3 and 6. Key then comes in for the Second Test, on a much better batting track, and scores 80. He is sure of his place for the next 2 Tests, both played on tracks which offer a little to the seamers while not being unplayable, and Key twice makes very costly failures. This costs the series. Butcher gets his place back but by then the damage is done.
Of course we don't know at all that something like this is going to happen, it's total guesswork, but knowing English cricket it's exactly the sort of thing that you can bet your life has a chance of happening - however many corners are supposedly turned.