# England will not win the Ashes

#### Adamc

##### Cricketer Of The Year
No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.
Would it be so difficult for you to just admit that this post was wrong? You'd save yourself a lot of time and further embarrassment. The fact that there are only two possible outcomes does not mean that they occur with equal probability. '50/50' implies that they do, in everyone's universe except yours, apparently.

#### dontcloseyoureyes

##### BARNES OUT
Your understanding of probabilities and distribution is terribly poor, Richard.

#### Athlai

##### Not Terrible
I'm not sure what roulette involves TBH, but I've always thought there were more than two possible outcomes? If so, it's not remotely akin to a Test series with a trophy at stake, where there can only be retention or regaining.
In roulette you usually bet on black or red though there with the 41(?) numbers on the wheel, 40 of which have 20 red and 20 black there is also however a green 00 to tip it to the casinos favor slightly. Savvy?

#### Prince EWS

##### Global Moderator
Your understanding of probabilities and distribution is terribly poor, Richard.
AWTA strongly. He's not the only one on this forum with that problem either; such a simple concept that so many people **** up.

#### Lillian Thomson

##### International Coach
Goughy doesn't start many threads but when he does they certainly stimulate debate like no other.

#### Richard

##### Cricket Web Staff Member
But the fact that there are a hundred percentage points to play with does not mean that the odds are always going to be 50:50.
1:1 if you prefer. It's, after all, directly divisible.

Either way, to coin a Cribb phrase, guess I ****ed-up something pretty simple and said something really rather different to what I meant. Not entirely sure why. Shall we all leave it at that?

#### Athlai

##### Not Terrible
1:1 if you prefer. It's, after all, directly divisible.

Either way, to coin a cribb phrase, guess i ****ed-up something pretty simple and said something really rather different to what i meant. Not entirely sure why. Shall we all leave it at that?
z

#### BoyBrumby

##### Englishman
Jesus. If Athers hadn't quoted that I'd have missed something rather special. Dicko in "I was wrong" shocker! We'll all remember where we were when it happened.

#### Jamee999

##### Hall of Fame Member
The great dates in history:

Caesar's assassination
The Battle of Hastings
Columbus discovering the Americas
The Battle of Agincourt
The Start of World War I
D-Day
That time Scotland won at football

They can now add "The Day Richard Said He Was Wrong" to their ranks. A truly historic day.

#### Richard

##### Cricket Web Staff Member
Go and find the first time it happened, I'd advise you, because this wasn't it.