Migara
Cricketer Of The Year
Bigger bats will make the ball speed to the boundary. It also will help to carry the nicks and bat pads to the fielders too.
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Adjusting the batting average based on actual quality
- Thread starter subshakerz
- Start date
Victor Ian
International Coach
Bigger bats will, at some stage, cross the threshold of balance, where blocks go to the boundary while nicks clear the fielders and also go the the boundary. It's ideal really. Fielding is mostly just chewing gum and rubbing the ball on your groin a little too enthusiastically.
shortpitched713
International Captain
Ran a power regression on the great retired modern era batsmen (and Alastair Cook), to predict what their "actual average" should be. To do that I took in opposition bowling quality and conditions (ICC Rating Average), and era run scoring difficulty (era adjusted average), and multiplied those two values together, set as independent variable, and then ran a power regression. Here's the adjustments to average it spits out, and the correlation coefficient was quite strong, at over .85:
You'll note that the average delta is negative, which indicates generally that all the sub eras of the modern era were somewhat easier for batting, than the history of Test cricket as a whole.
Interesting to note though, that Lara and Viv Richards were the only positive delta players, with not many other batsmen getting particularly close. Pietersen is also one to note as having a surprisingly low negative delta for a more recent player.
Also before you ask, no I couldn't replicate this for bowlers (although I tried a couple of ways). Their performance isn't as straightforward as batsmen, because their quality is judged on more than just their simple bowling average (rightly so, i.e a performance of 1/15 and 6/90 for a match are not the same). I couldn't get a high enough correlation coefficient for me to like using it for them.
| Batsman | Regression adjusted Average | Actual Average | Delta |
| Brian Lara | 54.8266 | 52.88 | 1.946596 |
| Kumar Sangakkara | 53.25256 | 57.4 | -4.14744 |
| Viv Richards | 52.05981 | 50.23 | 1.829814 |
| Javed Miandad | 51.37148 | 52.57 | -1.19852 |
| Jacques Kallis | 50.947 | 55.37 | -4.423 |
| Sachin Tendulkar | 50.86296 | 53.78 | -2.91704 |
| Sunil Gavaskar | 50.57744 | 51.12 | -0.54256 |
| Greg Chappell | 50.1509 | 53.86 | -3.7091 |
| Rahul Dravid | 49.96341 | 52.31 | -2.34659 |
| Allan Border | 49.56112 | 50.56 | -0.99888 |
| Ricky Ponting | 49.39324 | 51.85 | -2.45676 |
| Michael Hussey | 48.61139 | 51.52 | -2.90861 |
| Matthew Hayden | 48.52506 | 50.73 | -2.20494 |
| Shivnarine Chanderpaul | 47.22449 | 51.37 | -4.14551 |
| Younis Khan | 46.92967 | 52.05 | -5.12033 |
| Michael Clarke | 46.74208 | 49.1 | -2.35792 |
| Adam Gilchrist | 46.24314 | 47.6 | -1.35686 |
| Kevin Pietersen | 46.11968 | 47.28 | -1.16032 |
| AB de Villiers | 45.66331 | 50.66 | -4.99669 |
| Virender Sehwag | 45.25856 | 49.34 | -4.08144 |
| Graeme Smith | 44.17528 | 48.25 | -4.07472 |
| Gordon Greenidge | 43.59203 | 44.72 | -1.12797 |
| Alastair Cook | 42.99906 | 45.35 | -2.35094 |
-2.38477 |
You'll note that the average delta is negative, which indicates generally that all the sub eras of the modern era were somewhat easier for batting, than the history of Test cricket as a whole.
Interesting to note though, that Lara and Viv Richards were the only positive delta players, with not many other batsmen getting particularly close. Pietersen is also one to note as having a surprisingly low negative delta for a more recent player.
Also before you ask, no I couldn't replicate this for bowlers (although I tried a couple of ways). Their performance isn't as straightforward as batsmen, because their quality is judged on more than just their simple bowling average (rightly so, i.e a performance of 1/15 and 6/90 for a match are not the same). I couldn't get a high enough correlation coefficient for me to like using it for them.
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shortpitched713
International Captain
Here's a prettier version of the table, it adjusts to make the era adjustment from 1970-2018 when these players careers were, instead of the entirety of Test cricket history, still ended up with a slightly negative average delta (meaning more of these players came from the somewhat more batting friendly eras of the overall modern era):
| Batsman | Regression Adjusted Ave. | Actual Average | Delta |
| Brian Lara | 56.40237 | 52.88 | 3.522368 |
| Kumar Sangakkara | 54.7831 | 57.4 | -2.6169 |
| Viv Richards | 53.55607 | 50.23 | 3.326065 |
| Javed Miandad | 52.84794 | 52.57 | 0.277943 |
| Jacques Kallis | 52.41126 | 55.37 | -2.95874 |
| Sachin Tendulkar | 52.32481 | 53.78 | -1.45519 |
| Sunil Gavaskar | 52.03108 | 51.12 | 0.911082 |
| Greg Chappell | 51.59229 | 53.86 | -2.26771 |
| Rahul Dravid | 51.39941 | 52.31 | -0.91059 |
| Allan Border | 50.98556 | 50.56 | 0.42556 |
| Ricky Ponting | 50.81285 | 51.85 | -1.03715 |
| Michael Hussey | 50.00853 | 51.52 | -1.51147 |
| Matthew Hayden | 49.91972 | 50.73 | -0.81028 |
| Shivnarine Chanderpaul | 48.58177 | 51.37 | -2.78823 |
| Younis Khan | 48.27848 | 52.05 | -3.77152 |
| Michael Clarke | 48.08549 | 49.1 | -1.01451 |
| Adam Gilchrist | 47.57222 | 47.6 | -0.02778 |
| Kevin Pietersen | 47.44521 | 47.28 | 0.165207 |
| AB de Villiers | 46.97571 | 50.66 | -3.68429 |
| Virender Sehwag | 46.55933 | 49.34 | -2.78067 |
| Graeme Smith | 45.44492 | 48.25 | -2.80508 |
| Gordon Greenidge | 44.84491 | 44.72 | 0.124912 |
| Alastair Cook | 44.2349 | 45.35 | -1.1151 |
-0.99139 |
Prince EWS
Global Moderator
I did this mathematically and I get teased about it ffs. 
shortpitched713
International Captain
Not sure how valid it would be if I did that. The model was built using the top batsmen of the modern era. I'm not sure I can extrapolate it to generally lower quality batsmen. But you can still give me a retired batsman of the modern era (1970-2018), (as long as I have an ICC ranking average for them), and I'll be able to create a regression adjusted average for them.
shortpitched713
International Captain
One must own one's nerdiness.I did this mathematically and I get teased about it ffs.
subshakerz
International Coach
Still wondering how Sanga can end up averaging 54.
honestbharani
Whatever it takes!!!
Hating @Himannv cost him 3.
shortpitched713
International Captain
To note, South African batsmen are getting hammered here on the deltas.
But I guess Steyn did bowl on green, seaming minefields.
But I guess Steyn did bowl on green, seaming minefields.
shortpitched713
International Captain
Despite the personal attacks and propaganda on this site, he was a rather good batsman. At least, that's my best guess.
BazBall21
International Regular
I've always suspected they were consciously given good batting conditions (even for the era) in an attempt to neutralise Steyn and co.To note, South African batsmen are getting hammered here on the deltas.
But I guess Steyn did bowl on green, seaming minefields.
trundler
Request Your Custom Title Now!
This confirms my belief that Smith is overrated on here. I'll take it.
Prince EWS
Global Moderator
Daily reminder that mine was better and I am having a voodoo doll made in your image aws.
BazBall21
International Regular
He never does too well in these things. His adjusted overseas average takes a whopping 8 run hit on my friend's system.
shortpitched713
International Captain
Tendulkar of course coming up with great numbers, and a pretty decent negative delta here.
For me the weakness of his BBB claim shows up, in terms of the fact that he has pretty stiff competition among the top players of the modern era alone, besides for just the traditional competing claims of Sobers or Hobbslol . It really relies a lot on longevity, which he does have over the others towards the top of this list, but that's a personally subjective consideration.
For me the weakness of his BBB claim shows up, in terms of the fact that he has pretty stiff competition among the top players of the modern era alone, besides for just the traditional competing claims of Sobers or Hobbslol . It really relies a lot on longevity, which he does have over the others towards the top of this list, but that's a personally subjective consideration.
shortpitched713
International Captain
AWS? Is that like a competing clan of yours?
shortpitched713
International Captain
Steve Smith (while technically an out of scope extrapolation, and not having finished his career) murders this list on face value due to his high ICC Rating average, fwiw.