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4th thread - who's going to win?

Who will win?


  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
Oz's away record makes me far more confident than most of my compatriots seem to be. 4-0 England.
 

Pothas

Hall of Fame Member
Yep, England.

I do think Australia are a bit overrated by the media in England. So much depends on Harris and Johnson though.
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
I think England at large still sees Australia as the almighty

When NZ were putting us to the sword last week I was seeing comments like 'just imagine what Australia will do to us' as though there's this vast gulf between the kiwis and them. Australia are better sure, but not by that much.

Johnson will do nothing.

I've changed my mind. 5-0 to England.
 

Cabinet96

Global Moderator
Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
 

The Battlers Prince

International Vice-Captain
England haven't produced players the likes of Root and Cook for a long time and I can't be certain when they'll play poorly. I really don't think Australia are playing well away from home either bar random games.
Still not going to back England but maybe Australia 2-1 with Johnson in the side to overshadow slower English pitches
 

BeeGee

International Captain
Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
Predicting an England win in Australia is a huge call. Predicting an England win in England isn't.
I'm fascinated to see how Australia goes in the WI. I think that series is going to be more competitive than many predict.
 

morgieb

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
I'll take the draw. Still a tad unconvinced about England's bowling....and I think our bowling > New Zealand's. That said England are a good side at home and our batting isn't exactly flash.
 

Adders

Cricketer Of The Year
Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
Same. I have taken a bit of confidence out of the NZ series and think we're playing some decent cricket now and like GIMH says there is not a great gulf between NZ and Australia so I certainly have some hope.

That said I still think Australia will start as favorites and I'm not game enough to call it at this stage.
 

morgieb

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Doing a player-by-player analysis:

Openers:

Warner > Cook
Rogers > Lyth

First one is borderline, but up until recently Cook's form had been iffy....whereas Warner's been killing it at Test level for about 18 months. Question marks over whether Warner can handle English conditions, but Cook's record against Australia (2010/11 notwithstanding) is pretty poor. As for the second one....Lyth is still untested at Test level, whereas Rogers has lots of experience in English conditions and has proven to be very solid in his brief Test career.

Middle order:

S Marsh < Ballance
Smith < Root
Clarke > Bell
M Marsh/Watson < Stokes

I don't know who's gonna bat 3 for us....but if it's Marsh or Watson they aren't likely to be convincing....and Smith's untested at #3 and I'm skeptical as to how well he's suited up there. That said Ballance is no great shakes either....against strong bowling attacks he's been exposed and I expect us to bowl well. Still I'll give the edge to Ballance as he's more likely to play significant innings than Watson if he does get going, and isn't prone to a random shocker as easily as Darsh is. #4 is basically tied....in England I barely favour Root. Should Clarke bat 4 and Smith 3 this decision becomes a lot easier. Clarke is patchy and may only play a couple of significant innings in the series but Bell has been pretty meh for quite some time (2013 Ashes notwithstanding). If Bell wakes up that could easily decide the series. Stokes is the better all-round option than Mitch Marsh or Watson at this stage assuming he bats 6.

Keeper:

Haddin > Buttler

Tight, but Haddin's done a lot more in his career so far so for now I think he's still the better option despite being pretty dire with the bat away from Australia. Buttler is promising but I can't really think of many innings of significance he's played.

Bowlers:

Harris > Anderson
Johnson > Broad
Hazlewood > Wood
Lyon > Ali

Anderson is excellent in English conditions...but Harris has the better ability to get his man out so he narrowly has the edge. Johnson's record in England is poor, but he also has a physchological edge over many of England better batsman. Broad is obviously dangerous but he hasn't bowled very well recently....I'd give this battle to Johnson but Broad waking up and making me eat dirt would not the least bit surprise me. Hazlewood is a perfect 3rd seamer for our attack and I can see him being very dangerous in these conditions....Wood hasn't excited me as much - this is probably the main difference between the two attacks. As for the spinner, I'm a bit skeptical of how well Lyon will bowl given that English wickets are generally less true than Australian ones....and unlike the majority of offies Lyon's not great on slower wickets. That said, Ali's prone to lacking control and a consistent length....to me you still can sorta tell that he hasn't been a true bowling option for most of his career, and I'd probably take Lyon's bowling at this stage over Moeen's. As for the lower-order's batting itself, Moeen is obviously a better batsman than anyone in the Australian tail but you'd expect a lot more resistence in the Australian tail, especially given Broad's recent "showings" with the bat.



So 8-3 Australia, but a lot of the calls are lineball or basically tied. Another person could easily argue that one person who I've thought was inferior is better. Could be a very crazy series depending on who shows up.

I'll be interested to see what kind of pitches England throw up. I think the slower the better for England, but on days that it's sunny I'm not sold that they can effectively exploit it in the same way Pakistan did in our tour to the UAE.
 

Dan

Global Moderator
Openers:
Cook & Lyth vs. Warner & Rogers (Cook = Warner > Rogers > Lyth)

Middle Order:
Ballance, Bell & Root vs. Smith, Clarke & Marsh -- Honours Even (Clarke > Root = Smith > Bell > Ballance > Marsh)

All-Rounder:
Stokes vs. Watson/Marsh (Stokes > Watson > Marsh)

Wicketkeeper:
Buttler vs. Haddin (Buttler's Batting = Haddin's Keeping > Buttler's Keeping > Haddin's Batting)

#8 Batting:
Moeen vs. Johnson

Tail Wagging:
Broad, Wood & Anderson vs. Harris, Hazlewood & Lyon (Troll runs: Harris > Anderson > Hazlewood > Lyon > Wood > Broad)

Fast Bowling:
Anderson, Broad & Wood/Woakes vs. Johnson, Harris & Hazlewood/Starc (Harris > Johnson > Anderson > Broad > Hazlewood > Wood > Starc > Woakes)

Spin Bowling:
Moeen vs. Lyon -- Honours Even

Fielding:
England vs. Australia

Captaincy:
Cook vs. Clarke
 
Last edited:

Adders

Cricketer Of The Year

Captaincy:
Cook vs. Clarke
If it ends up being a tight series this could be such an important factor, and lets face it there is just no contest in this department.......................Cookie by a country mile :ph34r:
 

Dan

Global Moderator
If it ends up being a tight series this could be such an important factor, and lets face it there is just no contest in this department.......................Cookie by a country mile :ph34r:
Ashes time: when good posters turn into one-eyed, partisan hacks :ph34r:

Also the time GIMH becomes even more insufferable than usual, but the less said about that the better. Keep making up that fictional '05 series; maybe someone will believe you one day!
 

Spark

Global Moderator
Yep, England.

I do think Australia are a bit overrated by the media in England. So much depends on Harris and Johnson though.
Not as much as England get overrated by the media in England if they win a Test or two.
 

Daemon

Request Your Custom Title Now!
if you have ever done a player by player analysis, please slap yourself hard
 

Red

The artist formerly known as Monk
What're the odds there'll be a Watson ton in the draw
No, Watson will ton up in the fifth test when the series is already decided one way or the other. Up until that point he won't have made a better score than 35, but his bowling will have been economical despite lack of wickets and, regarding batting, he'll declare he's "hitting them as well as ever and just one big score away from breakthrough". He will make 140 in the second innings of the dead rubber, meaning he will get another test series at home in the summer.
 

Howe_zat

Audio File
Australia haven't won in England since I was 9, when they had one of the best sides ever and England were at their lowest. They've won 1 test here out of the last 14. They can't hack it
 

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