Australia ATG vs ROW XI - in Australia

[subshakerz]

So in an actual series, who will win?

I think it's close. Australia have Bradman who is like an extra bat. But their openers won't be to the same level, nor will their lower order after Gilly. Warne guarantees them a victory in Sydney IMO. If Miller plays at 6, it weakens their batting a bit but then they have a 4 man pace attack plus Warne.

For ROW, assuming it's Hobb, Sutcliffe/Hutton, Viv, Hammond/Barrington, Tendulkar and Sobers, that's an incredible top six. ABD or Pants at 7 will be the counterattacker. And then Hadlee plus Imran/Wasim give them batting depth.

So the question is whether Hadlee, Ambrose, Wasim/Imran is enough of a pace attack? I think they need a fourth pacer or they are screwed. But there is nobody to counter Warne.

 

[_00_deathscar]

I don’t think the exercise is fair with Bradman, reckon any (ATG or near ATG) side with him almost always wins if we assume he’s an actual 99 averaging batsman.

Also if we go by stats and Lara and Sachin are in there, do we assume Warne is screwed (assuming McGrath hasn’t taken them already)? Or is he fine cos it’s at home in Aus and we go with that instead?

 

[subshakerz]

I don’t think the exercise is fair with Bradman, reckon any (ATG or near ATG) side with him almost always wins if we assume he’s an actual 99 averaging batsman.

Also if we go by stats and Lara and Sachin are in there, do we assume Warne is screwed (assuming McGrath hasn’t taken them already)? Or is he fine cos it’s at home in Aus and we go with that instead?

Warne actually did ok against Lara in Australia.

But on a broader point, I wonder if these ATG contests will inevitably turn out to be low scoring affairs, as no batsman will ever have faced the level of bowling fire power on offer. Without Bradman, struggle to see 300 plus scores be done regularly.

 

[_00_deathscar]

Warne actually did ok against Lara in Australia.

But on a broader point, I wonder if these ATG contests will inevitably turn out to be low scoring affairs, as no batsman will ever have faced the level of bowling fire power on offer. Without Bradman, struggle to see 300 plus scores be done regularly.

Yea - usually ATG batsmen will play out the good bowlers and attack the bad ones. Assuming no one's having a weird off day, there's no one to attack.

It's also a recent point from 2016/2018 or so onwards - yes, the pitches have also gotten spicier, but so have the attacks (and I suppose both are linked) - generally speaking, there aren't massive weak links in attacks anymore that you can just go after. The pressure just keeps coming - and it's borne out somewhat in the scores of late.

 

[Line and Length]

Interesting simulation but what's with the attack of:
7.SUNDAR
8.THAKUR
9.SIRAJ
10.SAINI
11.NATARAJAN

Makes a bit of a joke of the exercise.

 

[subshakerz]

Yea - usually ATG batsmen will play out the good bowlers and attack the bad ones. Assuming no one's having a weird off day, there's no one to attack.

It's also a recent point from 2016/2018 or so onwards - yes, the pitches have also gotten spicier, but so have the attacks (and I suppose both are linked) - generally speaking, there aren't massive weak links in attacks anymore that you can just go after. The pressure just keeps coming - and it's borne out somewhat in the scores of late.

In which case you are right, perhaps I should excluded Bradman as he just gives too much of an edge.

 

[Fuller Pilch]

Interesting simulation but what's with the attack of:
7.SUNDAR
8.THAKUR
9.SIRAJ
10.SAINI
11.NATARAJAN

Brisbane attack

 

[centurymaker]

I don’t think the exercise is fair with Bradman, reckon any (ATG or near ATG) side with him almost always wins if we assume he’s an actual 99 averaging batsman.

Also if we go by stats and Lara and Sachin are in there, do we assume Warne is screwed (assuming McGrath hasn’t taken them already)? Or is he fine cos it’s at home in Aus and we go with that instead?

Nah Bradman will be not be averaging 99 against this level of bowlers. (Ambrose, Holding, Wasim, Hadlee..) He will come down to 60-70 or even less. So there's nothing unfair.

 

[centurymaker]

Warne actually did ok against Lara in Australia.

But on a broader point, I wonder if these ATG contests will inevitably turn out to be low scoring affairs, as no batsman will ever have faced the level of bowling fire power on offer. Without Bradman, struggle to see 300 plus scores be done regularly.

Low scoring contests are likely on a good pitch (certainly on a helpful pitch) but I expect the pitches to be flat to make it a worthwhile contest.

 

[Migara]

So in an actual series, who will win?

I think it's close. Australia have Bradman who is like an extra bat. But their openers won't be to the same level, nor will their lower order after Gilly. Warne guarantees them a victory in Sydney IMO. If Miller plays at 6, it weakens their batting a bit but then they have a 4 man pace attack plus Warne.

For ROW, assuming it's Hobb, Sutcliffe/Hutton, Viv, Hammond/Barrington, Tendulkar and Sobers, that's an incredible top six. ABD or Pants at 7 will be the counterattacker. And then Hadlee plus Imran/Wasim give them batting depth.

So the question is whether Hadlee, Ambrose, Wasim/Imran is enough of a pace attack? I think they need a fourth pacer or they are screwed. But there is nobody to counter Warne.

Pick Gavaskar at top, and he with Tendulkar, Lara and Sobers will take care of Warne, pretty savagely, especially two Indians. Warne's record against Indian batsmen at Australia is beyond crap.

 

[centurymaker]

And I agree that batsmen will have a very hard time not getting any easier bowlers to cash in on. They often rely on getting more of the runs against weaker bowlers in a lineup. They can't do that here. They won't be able to play out a certain ATG bowler and make hay against others. Sustained ATG level bowling all round will be very difficult to face.

 

[subshakerz]

Pick Gavaskar at top, and he with Tendulkar, Lara and Sobers will take care of Warne, pretty savagely, especially two Indians. Warne's record against Indian batsmen at Australia is beyond crap.

Gavaskar struggled against Lillee.

 

[Victor Ian]

If you are going to give Warne Sydney then he also has Brisbane. He is a monster there.

I've raised it before that picking your best 4 fast bowlers may not be the best team. You want your best 3rd bowler. Garner has to play in Australia. Is Hadlee going to be any good without the new ball if Ambrose and Marshall play.

Before people settle on their World team, I think the rules should be established. Has the bouncer limit rule been established? Uncovered pitches? Helmets and good pads? I presume it will be modern rules, because that is what the sim will employ. Imran is going to be much less effective as there will be no movement of the ball, because sims don't employ murrey mints and bottle tops, etc. He will still be good, but this needs to be considered. I presume it's with a kookaburra, so any natural reverse swing will exist for a very short window.

It's true that Bradman will only average 60. And the rest of the great bats are only going to average 30.

And picking Pant! Some are being dip****s to suggest such a thing. Subshakers is spending all his time in the other thread talking about how you can not judge a player until the finality of their career, yet here he is espousing putting in a guy who very definitely is a player who relies on the eyes and timing of youth which will most likely fade in the future. He is much better than the **** **** he started as, as a keeper, but he is still not world class. Pick a proper keeper, goddammit! Same goes with DeVilliers. He was never good enough to oust Boucher from that position, so what is all this revisionism based purely on batting average while a keeper? He didn't have to keep against Australia when they were killers. He got to keep against Australia when they were in a **** phase and the rest of the world were in a **** phase. He's OK, but who he drops here will make a world of difference. It's not just about the catches. It's also about how many byes are you going to let through and how much pressure you can exert by standing up to the stumps for ****s like Hayden and ponting who are going to go down the pitch.

 

[Victor Ian]

Pick Gavaskar at top, and he with Tendulkar, Lara and Sobers will take care of Warne, pretty savagely, especially two Indians. Warne's record against Indian batsmen at Australia is beyond crap.

Is this because the Indian batsmen that Warne bowled against were trash against McGrath and Gillespie, getting out before Warne had a chance to take their wicket? McGrath will be in this team, so the advantage Tendulkar gets is negated by the amount of times he got out cheaply before Warne had a chance.

Unrelated to Migara's thing, but another thing to consider is how much of an advantage will the worlds team have in terms of openers. All around the world, I'll give them that, but in Australia, I'd say the advantage is negated, because our guys are so much better here.

 

[The_CricketUmpire]

Not the strongest side.

Gavaskar wasn't great in Australia against Lillee while Lara averages 41 there. Murali sucks in Australia big time too.

Gavaskar in Australia

Matches: 11
Innings: 19
Runs: 920
Average: 51.11
Not Outs: 1
Ducks: 2
50s: 1
100s: 5
Highest Score: 172

 

[Victor Ian]

Gavaskar in Australia

Matches: 11
Innings: 19
Runs: 920
Average: 51.11
Not Outs: 1
Ducks: 2
50s: 1
100s: 5
Highest Score: 172

Please post again without the packer affected team stats. Gavaskar seems like a really lucky **** in that he got to get centuries in Australia against our near worst teams ever, packer affect or mid 80's lolstralia, and against diminished West Indies attacks. He is a fraud.

edit: Mind you, the sim won't account for this, so the lucky **** has a case.

 

[subshakerz]

If you are going to give Warne Sydney then he also has Brisbane. He is a monster there.

I've raised it before that picking your best 4 fast bowlers may not be the best team. You want your best 3rd bowler. Garner has to play in Australia. Is Hadlee going to be any good without the new ball if Ambrose and Marshall play.

Before people settle on their World team, I think the rules should be established. Has the bouncer limit rule been established? Uncovered pitches? Helmets and good pads? I presume it will be modern rules, because that is what the sim will employ. Imran is going to be much less effective as there will be no movement of the ball, because sims don't employ murrey mints and bottle tops, etc. He will still be good, but this needs to be considered. I presume it's with a kookaburra, so any natural reverse swing will exist for a very short window.

It's true that Bradman will only average 60. And the rest of the great bats are only going to average 30.

And picking Pant! Some are being dip****s to suggest such a thing. Subshakers is spending all his time in the other thread talking about how you can not judge a player until the finality of their career, yet here he is espousing putting in a guy who very definitely is a player who relies on the eyes and timing of youth which will most likely fade in the future. He is much better than the **** **** he started as, as a keeper, but he is still not world class. Pick a proper keeper, goddammit! Same goes with DeVilliers. He was never good enough to oust Boucher from that position, so what is all this revisionism based purely on batting average while a keeper? He didn't have to keep against Australia when they were killers. He got to keep against Australia when they were in a **** phase and the rest of the world were in a **** phase. He's OK, but who he drops here will make a world of difference. It's not just about the catches. It's also about how many byes are you going to let through and how much pressure you can exert by standing up to the stumps for ****s like Hayden and ponting who are going to go down the pitch.

- Hadlee has to take the new ball

- I opt for Holding over Garner. Holding has the best record in Australia after Hadlee and Ambrose, was very good as third seamer. Garner is pretty similar to Ambrose, while Holding complements them by being an out and out speech merchant who can bounce and intimidate the best bats.

- Marshall is not necessary, his only great series was against a poorish lineup. I would opt for either Wasim or Imran for their reverse, preference to Wasim given his slightly better record.

- For keeper it's a calculated risk to take a better bat but I think it's necessary given the big edge in batting Australia have. ABD and Pant both have lower order punch, but Pant did his against strong attacks. Alan Knott can be selected but I am worried if the lower order will score enough.

 

[subshakerz]

Unrelated to Migara's thing, but another thing to consider is how much of an advantage will the worlds team have in terms of openers. All around the world, I'll give them that, but in Australia, I'd say the advantage is negated, because our guys are so much better here.

Who are the Aussie openers? I don't rate Hayden surviving an opening spell from Hadlee and Ambrose unless it's a pancake.

 

[Victor Ian]

So long as Holding has form as 3rd bowler, he is excellent.

Why risk the keeper dropping an Australian which will cost, on average 30 runs. Neither AB nor Pant are worth that much more in batting over Knott.

 

[Victor Ian]

Who are the Aussie openers? I don't rate Hayden surviving an opening spell from Hadlee and Ambrose unless it's a pancake.

You have listed 4 guys. They will all be much better in Australia than overseas. They will all average the expected average of 30, which is all you are going to expect the World team to average. The openers advantage is only a few runs at best. Do the math.