New Zealand doom and gloom thread

[Bahnz]

I know that for some odd reason I've earned a reputation for being a bit of pessimist over the years, so I thought I'd make the most of it right now by having a long miserable rant about the doomed future of New Zealand cricket. And no, this isn't just my attempt to reverse-jinx New Zealand into winning the 2nd test.

I'm really worried about the future of the team at the moment. I just don't see how things are going to turn around. Vettori is the best spinner in the country by miles and he's completely rubbish. Martin is still probably our most consistently effective seamer and he's at least 5 years past his best. Taylor is our best batsman by a distance, and even he has only a vague notion of how to build a test innings.

The next generation of fast mediums are either ridiculously injury prone or worryingly pedestrian. Outside of the Taylor-Ryder-Williamson trifecta, there don't appear to be any emerging New Zealanders capable of averaging 35+ in test matches (or ODI's for that matter). The team doesn't even have sucess in limited overs cricket to stimulate public interest anymore. As shown by the following article, in terms of on the field performances New Zealand is now the 9th best ODI side in the world.

Numbers Game: Desperately seeking a facelift | Regulars | Cricinfo Magazine | ESPN Cricinfo

I know success and failure are cyclical in sport, but I'm really worried that we might be seeing a permanent decline in the fortunes of New Zealand cricket. As a cricketing nation, we've basically been getting progressively worse since Chris Cairns retired in 2004, despite the emergence of several long heralded players.

Is there any hope that things will turn around? I honestly don't know, but I struggle to see anyone new changing things anytime within the next 5 years. There are a few potentially exciting youngsters floating around here and there, but we've been hearing tales of how young cricketers (fast bowlers in particular) will arrest New Zealand's slump for years (cough...Sherlock...cough). It never seems to eventuate. If change is going to be achieved, I think it has to come from the current core of the side. The problem is that we've been waiting for such a change for the past 4 years. At this stage I just don't know if it will ever happen.

[Flem274*]

New Zealand are an honest, hard working outfit whose sum is greater than their parts and it is always heart warming to see them achieve a rare upset when their opponents do not play to their potential.

[Mike5181]

I have to admit some of the names we had a few years back really show how badly our team has declined.

Stephen Fleming, Shane Bond, Chris Cairns, Mark Richardson, Nathan Astle, Jacob Oram, Craig McMillan etc.

[Flem274*]

Taylor, Ryder, Williamson will be remembered as far better than any of those middle order batsmen.

Taylor already is.

[Flem274*]

Originally Posted by Flem274*

New Zealand are an honest, hard working outfit whose sum is greater than their parts and it is always heart warming to see them achieve a rare upset when their opponents do not play to their potential.

But srsly I think some people in influential places buy into this somewhat. You hear it in interviews with players and management all the time. "If we play our best we will compete" and the like when we're playing teams with similar rankings to ours, let alone higher ups.

And we will never win with the above attitude. Ever. Considering NZ successes in sports of similar sizes with much, much, much less funding behind them, there is no excuse for the second largest sport in NZ to hide behind mummys legs.

[Fusion]

NZ are staring into the Test cricket abyss

A piece by Osman Samiuddin, whom I respect as a writer. He makes the argument that the recent downturn in performance can't be attributed to the cyclical nature of things, but is rather an indication of more deep seated problems within NZ cricket.

[uvelocity]

well if you all stop moving here there might be some left there to get good at cricket

[BackFootPunch]

So, for us to arrest our prolonged downward trend, what do we need exactly? And who among the emerging domestic players are likely to provide it?

Three things we desperately require:

1. Genuine strike bowler.
2. Genuine wicket taking spinner (at least in spin-friendly conditions).
3. An opening batsman with the mental fortitude and technique of at least someone like Rigor.

I'm happy with our keeping options, our middle order batsmen should get there and if we can find a real spinner then Vettori is a legitimate option as an all-rounder.

Where are they coming from?

1. I don't think Wagner will quite fill this role at Test level. Gillespie doesn't really fit the genuine strike bowler position either. Matt Henry is a possibility I guess, injury permitting. Ben Wheeler is a guy I think could be pretty damn impressive. I think the most realistic option though is Dougeh but only if we can get supporting bowlers who can actually do a job rather than leaving Bracewell to contain as well as take wickets.

2. I really don't know. I don't think Nethula is up to it and Bruce Martin isn't better than Vettori. Todd Astle has come on as much as we'd all hoped.*

3. Opener. Guptill looked pretty good in this Test. I think he's worth persisting with. If everyone had the same attitude as him we'd be a far better side. The disappointment he felt when he got out was palpable. As for someone to partner him - Rutherford will be watched intently in this coming season I'd imagine. George Worker progressed last season with Canterbury so if he can keep improving he's in with a shot.

[Mike5181]

Originally Posted by Flem274*

Taylor, Ryder, Williamson will be remembered as far better than any of those middle order batsmen.

Taylor already is.

You'd hope so. They're certainly more talented batsmen, but whether or not they live up to their potential is another thing. If Taylor retired today he certainly wouldn't be remembered as a better player than Fleming. He hasn't surpassed him yet. Despite his inability to convert 50s he still averaged 40 in test matches from 1994-2008. There were some seriously good bowlers during that time period. Warne, Murali, McGrath, Pollock, Ambrose, Donald, Akram, Walsh, Gillespie, MacGill, Akhtar, Vaas etc.

Actually getting Ryder in the team is the hardest challenge. It's too soon to bring him back and I'm not sure he would even if they asked. It's a shame because I could see him scoring truck loads of runs against India again.

[Flem274*]

We've never had a world class spinner and rarely a test standard spinner. Not saying it will never happen but when you have guys like Williamson (and Vettori) who are weapons on a turner in FC anywhere in the world, in all honesty, don't bother with a spinner until one shows they're awesome.

Our strength is pace bowling, when we can actually get them on the park. To do this, can the indoor crap like the rest of the world.

[Hurricane]

As much as we hate John Buchanan or want to blame him. The only thing he can really do is influence the selection of coach and team. And who amongst us would pick a different team. The actual guys they have out there have been excellent picks (Brownlie seemed like an inspired pick for a while, Bracewell, Gillespie Mach 2, Flynn Mach 2) all good picks. Some people want Martin gone but he has enough credit in the bank to see out this series before they will drop him.
What am I saying - my first point is that this is not John Buchanans fault.

I do fear we are heading into a dark age of cricket that will last for a while.

As I have mentioned before star players in NZ need to be coaxed into playing until they are 36 or 37 and not 30 31 like they do at the moment. Unfortunately I don't think we pay them enough so they start looking to cash in and spend time with family after they have had a good run with the side.

Hopes on the horizon: I would ask all NZ fans to have a look at that video Kippax has uploaded of Boam scoring 81. It is in the domestic thread. Don't worry about Boam he plays many false strokes and is not good value for his 81. Focus on Astle the leg spinner bowling to him and see what you think. He looks better than Tarun in that footage.

Tom Latham - we are investing major energy into this guy. Lets hope he can become at least an ODI player we can rely on.

Ronchi - as a specialist ODI player

And that's it can't really name anyone else in the cupboard.

Conclusion - yes the cupboard is fairly bare. Just have to hope that someone emerges this season - maybe young Rutherford or Worker or Brodie.

I think if we are to compete then we need some Jeremy Coney/Chris Harris style players. People who can actually average 35 and play a role. Is that asking too much? I don't think it should be. Guys need to HTFU and actually perform well in international cricket.

[Flem274*]

We've been having dark age threads since 2007. This is the dark age, and no different to the majority of our history. After the eighties we dropped the ball until Rixon, Graham and Fleming built a new foundation only for the ball to be dropped again by Justin Vaughan and co. and we've been terrible for a while.

[Dan]

If/when Martin goes, Boult/Wagner/Bracewell has to be the top 3 of the pace attack, surely.

I'd almost be tempted just to throw Astle into the side on spin-friendly decks and tell him to sink or swim. Give him 10 Tests minimum, see if he can handle himself at all. If not, you hang on to Vettori as long as you can and develop that U/19 bloke who looked semi-decent - he can't be worse than Nethula.

In terms of batsman, NZ's stocks aren't too bad overall. Guptill, McCullum, Williamson, Taylor and Ryder are locks when fit, IMO - Guptill may not be the greatest, but he should be rewarded for his hard work in the CC. He'll only get better at Test level. Brownlie, Watling, et al. are semi-decent back-up options.

The second opener is the problem. Daniel Flynn doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Wicketkeeping stocks are good; KvW & DdB good both do the job at Test level.

So that leaves the second opener, another quick to spearhead (since Boult/Bracewell/Wagner would be a little one-paced), and a spinner to find.

[Mike5181]

I rate Bevan Small and Matt Henry highly. Haven't seen much of Wheeler, but most people rate him as well.

[Bahnz]

Originally Posted by Flem274*

New Zealand are an honest, hard working outfit whose sum is greater than their parts and it is always heart warming to see them achieve a rare upset when their opponents do not play to their potential.

As much as everyone on this thread hates this stereotype, I really wish it were true. While guys like Astle, Styris, Richardson and (until 12 months ago) Vettori were limited cricketers, you always knew they wouldn't lay down without a fight. The current lot are arguably more talented, but their flash and pinache has proven to be no substitute for the application and teamwork displayed by their predecessors.