New Zealand doom and gloom thread

[Dazinho]

Originally Posted by wellAlbidarned

At the moment it's 2 or 3 solid performers backed up by nothing.

The lack of a Shane Bond has nothing to do with our ****tyness, I don't know why everyone thinks that. We've NEVER had a bowler resembling Bond apart from, well, Bond, even in our stronger era(s). We just need some batsmen who can put some damn runs on the board.

Bond is certainly the only quality out and out fast bowler NZ has produced in the modern era - probably their second best pace/seam bowler ever.

All I was getting at was that a bowler like this gives any team the possibility of winning almost any match, especially a low-scoring one. It rarely happens, but then without that bowler it almost certainly won't.

A bowler of that quality (not necessarily that type) is like having a good striker in soccer - it gives the opposition something tangible to think about, inspires belief in your own side and so shifts the mentality of both teams.

Teams that don't score goals struggle and so do sides that struggle to get 20 wickets regularly.

[benchmark00]

Originally Posted by straw man

New Zealand doom and gloom

Leadership
Leadership and team culture are the most important problem IMO.

Taylor looks seriously down on confidence and weighed down by the responsibility of captaincy. Definitely think he’s the sort of player to be affected by his bad batting form and dropping those catches – will feel his authority has eroded. Obviously there have been injury problems and off-field distractions too and I’m sure he’s aware of captaincy speculation and that has to contribute to him second-guessing himself about everything (my read, anyway). However I think talk of changing the captaincy to McCullum is total bollocks. Maybe he would have been a better choice originally or maybe not, but there’s no way it’s worth the turmoil of changing now (unless Taylor actually doesn’t want the captaincy, which I doubt). We all feel nostalgia for the years of Fleming’s captaincy while perhaps forgetting there were a good 3 or 4 years at the start there that were totally dire and when there were loud repeated calls for Fleming’s head. If he hadn’t had support from some quarters and a good coach he probably would never have made it through that period. Best thing to do is support Taylor and if NZC and coaching is more stable for the next 2-3 years, he’ll grow into it. Short term he needs to find a way to get some confidence back – hopefully he has mentors who will tell him he’s awesome.

Batting
Our best batsmen are already there, considering that Ryder is a twit, Vettori is injured (and not batting well anyway) and Brownlie is also in terrible form and bad against spin. Unfortunately players like Guptill and Flynn need to learn how to play spin in the subcontinent in a pressure test match, rather than in practise matches or against weaker opposition. Need a lot more of that 2-per-over grind from McCullum, Williamson and Franklin (and hopefully Taylor) next test, because no-one else is going to do it. This series is already looking like a write-off so the aim next test is for everyone to spend as much time batting against spin as possible.

As Bahnz said, lower order batting is a real weakness in this side at the moment too – five or six down equals all out. But it’s not going to get any better any time soon, apart from a small boost when Martin goes. Or if they put Vettori back to 8 and weaken our bowling

Bowling
Didn’t see enough of the Windies series to make a judgment but now have - it’s time for Martin to go. It was pretty bizarre to leave him out of a four seamer attack in Windies 2nd test and then pick him again first match of this series, presumably based on one great spell in India 2010. He bowled ok but it’s a travesty to have all of Nethula, Southee and Wagner on the sidelines (some of you are writing off Nethula and Wagner way too soon). Martin should have retired after being left out of the second test vs Windies anyway.

Wicketkeeping
I guarantee that if they drop Van Wyk for Watling, in 4 or 5 tests people will be whinging again because he will have made a mistake keeping or not scored as many runs as hoped. Guaranteed. All our potential keepers are average – accept it. Last couple of years should have taught us a few things:

· Lower order runs in NZ domestic cricket (Hopkins, Young, Van Wyk, De Boorder and some non-wicketkeeping plodders too) are meaningless when it comes to international cricket.

· Need to avoid being reactionary – see current nostalgia for Reece Young – I should dig up some of the posts that were baying for his blood before he was dropped after a measly 5 tests.

Sure, I’m wavering on Van Wyk, but if he and Taylor can sort out whose catch is whose then that would be a good start. I’d pick him for next test anyway, maybe Sri Lanka too. Watling vs spin is not pretty either. De Boorder sounds like a younger NZ-born clone of Van Wyk and I guarantee Ronchi hype is just that – hype. And if they do drop Van Wyk, please give the next guy at least three series before complaining.

Fielding
Needs to improve. Should improve under Hesson.

Summary
XI for next test is same but drop Martin for one of Nethula, Southee or Wagner, depending on conditions and who seems to be in form. On the face of it this looks like punishing a bowler for batsmen’s poor performance, but we don’t have any other batsmen and anyway it’s way too early to drop Flynn or Franklin.

Forecast is it’s not going to get any better as 2012/13 season is incredibly tough - two tests in Sri Lanka, two tests in South Africa, three tests at home vs England, two tests in England. It’s going to be really ugly - I can’t see us winning a single test and it will be tough to even scrape out draws.

We need to select players and stick with them. The patience that’s been afforded Williamson – yeah we need to show that for pretty much every other player NZ picks too, unless they’re a real mistake who shouldn’t have been picked in the first place (like Nicol). I would more or less take this 15, add Vettori, minus Martin and maybe one spinner (3 is too many), and not change more than a couple of players over those next 9 tests. Try to build a unit through a period of stability and give Hesson some time to have an impact.

Shorter summary
It’s going to be ****

So what you're saying is that other than the captaincy, the batting, the bowling, the keeping and the overall fielding, everything is going swell?

[straw man]

Not quite, cos Trent Boult

[AndyZaltzHair]

The key problems which I feel for NZ are Ross Taylor's slump of form/lack of any runs, Williamson not being able to convert his starts to big tons and McCullum needs to contribute with some.

NZ got to make use of what they have to the full potential. Someone should come forward and bring the best out of players both in batting and bowling department. Not an easy job for Hesson but somehow he got to manage that. Constant changing and chopping is not the solution.

If likes of Taylor, Williamson, McCullum, Boult perform to their full ability, more than half of the problems will be solved.

[Monk]

Isn't Martin Crowe making a comeback?

Heard that a few months ago.

[ganeshran]

Originally Posted by Monk

Isn't Martin Crowe making a comeback?

Heard that a few months ago.

He made a comeback, got injured in his first game and quit cricket for good

[James]

Looks like NZ Herald are in on the doom and gloom for the Black Caps.

Cricket: When will the Black Caps next win? - Sport - NZ Herald News

My opinion on it is I feel as though the current batsmen are taking their positions for granted because they know there's really no one in domestic cricket pushing for a spot in the team. Seems like the previous coaches are a bit fed up with them as well with their recent comments in the media.

Is the real problem then that these days there's no real depth in the domestic game now and the lack of first-class cricket being played back in NZ for the batting lineup to practice their games?

I think as well we're perhaps getting a little carried away with the expectations of the current team. In all seriousness, there isn't a lot of experience and battle hardened players there.

I would say stick with the current lineup and just hang onto them for a year or two and hope all the Test cricket that is coming up for the Black Caps helps them grow for the future but with less expectations expected of the team. Short term pain for hopefully long term gain.

[Hurricane]

I think it was SteveNZ who blew away (politely pointed out it wouldn't work) my theory that we should stop playing listA since no one watches it - and play an extra round of PS. Somehow he showed me that there weren't enough days used up by ListA cricket, I still think there is merit to my suggestion and they should look at making it work somehow. The four day domestic cricket we play the better,

[SteveNZ]

Originally Posted by Hurricane

I think it was SteveNZ who blew away (politely pointed out it wouldn't work) my theory that we should stop playing listA since no one watches it - and play an extra round of PS. Somehow he showed me that there weren't enough days used up by ListA cricket, I still think there is merit to my suggestion and they should look at making it work somehow. The four day domestic cricket we play the better,

Not sure if I said that..but I don't think there's much merit in giving away List A cricket, given there's still a place for 50-overs in internationals.

If I was going to show you anything, I would have showed you that there doesn't have to be a window for it. No reason you can't play a four-dayer, have a rest day, play the same side at a one-dayer, then move on. I can see the necessity for an HRV window (with imports, TV etc) but not for anything else. I think I also asked for the Ford Trophy, if it was to be played in a bunch, to start the season. No one gets anything out of four-dayers in October.

[straw man]

So maybe NZ cricket is not all doom and gloom after pushing India close at home in the second test.

However in terms of development the performance was built on some things we already knew were rare strengths in this side:
- Our best batsman (by a comfortable distance) scored a century
- Our seam attack was threatening. Although Southee turning all that raw ability into actual results was new, most of us were already thinking our seam attack as a whole is a strength or would soon be. Southee, Boult, Bracewell with backup from Wagner and a couple of others could be very strong and just need some time to quietly improve further.

So what actual development has occurred that wasn't really expected? Nothing huge:
- Patel bowled better than expected though is still no world-beater
- Van Wyk scored runs. Still question marks over keeping/slips positioning which he and Taylor need to sort out.
- Maybe, just maybe, some of our batsmen will have improved their approach against spin and that will yield dividends in Sri Lanka.

[SteveNZ]

My fingers will hardly allow me to type this out but van Wyk showed me enough in the last Test...argg....to suggest....yuck...that he deserves...geez...to stay.

And fitness pending, we now know if we put up big totals we're going to win Test matches. That 365 should have been a lot higher and we still competed. With Doug, Tim, Trent (gee he impressed me in that Test) and a couple of younger guys coming through, if we create scoreboard pressure through runs we'll win more times than we don't.

Can we expect to beat Sri Lanka, or are the pitches going to be too slow and low?

[Bahnz]

Originally Posted by straw man

So maybe NZ cricket is not all doom and gloom after pushing India close at home in the second test.

However in terms of development the performance was built on some things we already knew were rare strengths in this side:
- Our best batsman (by a comfortable distance) scored a century
- Our seam attack was threatening. Although Southee turning all that raw ability into actual results was new, most of us were already thinking our seam attack as a whole is a strength or would soon be. Southee, Boult, Bracewell with backup from Wagner and a couple of others could be very strong and just need some time to quietly improve further.

So what actual development has occurred that wasn't really expected? Nothing huge:
- Patel bowled better than expected though is still no world-beater
- Van Wyk scored runs. Still question marks over keeping/slips positioning which he and Taylor need to sort out.
- Maybe, just maybe, some of our batsmen will have improved their approach against spin and that will yield dividends in Sri Lanka.

It's still doom and gloom for me.



The bowling's Ok, but suffers from signficant limitations. It's great to see Southee getting back to being a demon with the new ball, but he still looks fairly tame once the polish wears off. He's got a lot of limited overs cricket between now and the SL tour, so fingers crossed that he doesn't go backwards in the interim. Boult oscilates wildly between being brilliant and bloody awful. It's an experience thing, I know, but I really don't think he was that harshly done by, figures wise. For all the magic inswingers he produced, he let the pressure off way too often by drifting into the pads or serving up wide half volleys. Really hoping he tightens up over the next couple of seasons, as he's got all the tools to be a sub-30 career average bowler. Bracewell worried me a bit this tour, he looked much more loose than he did during the SA series. But its his first time in the sub-continent, so I guess it's OK to give him a free pass.

As a unit they get a B, but the lack of experience showed when they produced a ghastly first hour during India's run chase which really took all the pressure off. That played as much a part in New Zealand's defeat in the 2nd test as the shoddy batting, awful fielding and indifferent umpiring.

The batting's gone nowhere. New Zealand certainly batted with more purpose in the 2nd test than in the first, but honestly, they'll never score much more than 350 batting in that fashion, and will usually score significantly less. That's simply not enough runs to win test matches. There's no real signs of batsmen improving either. Taylor still can't last for much longer than 3 hours at the crease without self destructing. McCullum really doesn't look cut out to be a top order test bat. Guptill went backwards since his good series in WI. Kane remains stuck in limbo, neither threatening to have a total meltdown, nor seriously promising to becoming a genuine test class number 3. There's no serious challengers for an opening spot. It's a mess. Things could improve with Ryder and Vettori (if he regains his form circa 2008-2011). But you might as well wish for the moon as far as Ryder is concerned, and it may be that Vettori's natural hand-eye coordination is no longer able to compensate for his curious technique.

Fielding's a shambles, and if it doesn't improve in the next 12 months, serious questions have to be asked about Hesson and his support staff. If we're going to be **** at batting and OK at bowling then we have to be brilliant at fielding (as we were in Hobart).

[straw man]

Originally Posted by SteveNZ

My fingers will hardly allow me to type this out but van Wyk showed me enough in the last Test...argg....to suggest....yuck...that he deserves...geez...to stay.

Good on you for admitting it though

Originally Posted by SteveNZ

Can we expect to beat Sri Lanka, or are the pitches going to be too slow and low?

I'd love to see us play Sri Lanka at home at the moment but in SL I guess we expect pudding pitches and/or pitches that turn square, despite Sangakkara saying 'Sri Lankan pitches have changed'.

Tests at Galle
Tests at Colombo SSC
Tests at Colombo P Sara

Would quite like us to play Sri Lanka on that Galle pitch they used against Australia that Sri Lanka were censured for - randomness surely helps our bowlers! Otherwise most matches seem to be benefit matches for Herath and other quality spinners (Ajmal, Swann). I would be pretty happy if the pitches gave just the small amount of assistance to pace bowling that the last Bangalore pitch did - otherwise I suspect our bowling will be totally toothless.

[straw man]

Originally Posted by Bahnz

It's still doom and gloom for me.

Heh, I was only really saying I've revised my opinion to
80% doom and gloom
20% ray of sunshine that is probably imaginary

Can't really disagree with your assessment. And yes, it's highly frustrating seeing players like Williamson and Guptill take 2 steps forward then 2 steps back. Really just want to see signs of improvement, particularly from our batsmen.

And how bout this for optimism: We'll win a test against England at home next year

[Pup Clarke]

Yeah, I don't think that's too unrealistic an aim. Having a good bowling attack will always make sure you're competitive so NZ may not have to aim for scores of 350+ to stay in the match.

And Boult's the type of bowler I can envisage causing England some real headaches. They don't play swing bowling well imo and combined with the fact that he's a left-armer he should have some success.