Bowling Strikerates in test matches - how important are they?

[subshakerz]

I've often wondered why such emphasis is put on traditional bowling averages in test matches when on the surface they seem to have more to do with a bowler's ability to keep runs down while taking scalps. Shouldn't the strike rate be more emphasized as it essentially is the best measure of effectiveness of the bowler in taking wickets, i.e. how many deliveries it take him to do so? I myself am split on this question.

[silentstriker]

Well no, a part of a bowlers effectiveness is his ability to keep the runs down too, either because of the match situation, or to build pressure because another bowler might be very hot at the other end.

The average is essentially a combination of the strike rate the the economy rate - they are both important and both are reflected in the average.

I think strike rate and economy rate measure two different thing. Either one can't be too terrible, and a strike rate of 40 would be an all time exceptional rate, if he is going for 6 runs an over, he isn't going to be worth it over someone who strikes at 50 balls but goes at 3. I think average is fine as being the premier stat for a bowler. In Test cricket, you are generally asked to occupy an end, and/or be the strike bowler. Guys like Glenn McGrath did both.

[Trumpers_Ghost]

There are three variables for a bowlers stats: Wickets taken, Runs conceded, balls bowled.

Each of the three main stats is a ratio of two of these variables. Each ratio helps tells its own story and looked at in combination, tell the overall story.

Average - runs/wickets - tells the story of the bowlers effectivness at limiting the oppositions overall score.

Strike Rate - balls/wickets - tells the story of the likelyhood of a bowler taking a wicket.

Economy rate - runs/(balls/6) - tells the story of the likelyhood of a bowler being carted all over the park or not.

For an individual bowler therefore, the average is the best indicator of effectiveness, as limiting an opposition's total is the ONLY objective in the feilding faze of the game.

A bowler with a so-so average and poor economy rate can be very effective if the have a good strike rate, however this relies on the quality of the other bowlers around him who need to have low economy rates and or averages to limit the scoring while Mr so-so Average gets wickets and gets carted.

Therefore Average tells the best story of a bowlers total worth, while strike-rate tells more about how useful a bowler is in a total bowling attack.

cheers

(Gee I hope that drivel makes sense)

[Slifer]

Taking all this into consideration then, the bowler who best combines these 3 criteria should be close to (if not ) the best bowler of all time. the question then is which bowler best combines these 3 traits?

[Trumpers_Ghost]

Originally Posted by Slifer

Taking all this into consideration then, the bowler who best combines these 3 criteria should be close to (if not ) the best bowler of all time. the question then is which bowler best combines these 3 traits?

Because of the nature of the variables used, it actually only takes 2 stats to determine this and not 3 (and they would actually be SR and ER).

If a player has a good ER and good SR, then his average will also be good.

If a player has a good Avg and good SR, ER will most likely be good (unless SR is off the chart good)

A player can have a good Avg and good ER, however SR may still be poor to Avg.

Which brings us back full circle to Average being a combination of ER and SR, and the player with the best average, has the best combination of the 3 elements.

[bagapath]

I always feel a fast bowler should have a SR under 60 and a spinner under 72. in that case, if the fast bowler's ER is around 3 he will take a wicket for every 30 runs conceded and if the spinner maintains an ER of 2.75 then he will take a wicket for every 33 runs given. so good fast bowlers would come under 30 and take a wicket every 10 overs. and good spinners would take a wicket every 12 overs conceding under 33 runs.

the great pacers average under 25 and the great spinners under 28. this is achieved through a combination of superior SR and ER. usually it boils down to the pacers taking about nine overs, SR of 54, for their wickets and the spinners around 66 deliveries, 11 overs, for their strikes.

but when you look at the SR of waqar and shoaib specifically they take only between 7 - 8 overs for their wickets but concede in excess of 3 runs per over resulting in a bowling average on the wrong side of 25 (minus the minnows). only freaks like marshall, donald, hadlee, garner, holding, mcgrath and trueman took less than 8 and a half overs for their wickets while maintaining a tight ER. guess we have to fix that SR of about 54 deliveries for pacers as definition of greatness in combination with an ER of under 3 runs an over.

MD Marshall (WI) 	1978-1991 	81 	151 	17584 	7876 	376 	7/22 	11/89 	20.94 	2.68 	46.7 	22 	4 
J Garner (WI) 	1977-1987 	58 	111 	13169 	5433 	259 	6/56 	9/108 	20.97 	2.47 	50.8 	7 	0 	
FS Trueman (Eng) 	1952-1965 	67 	127 	15178 	6625 	307 	8/31 	12/119 	21.57 	2.61 	49.4 	17 	3 
GD McGrath (Aus) 	1993-2007 	120 	235 	28485 	11930 	549 	8/24 	10/27 	21.73 	2.51 	51.8 	29 	3 
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 	1973-1990 	86 	150 	21918 	9611 	431 	9/52 	15/123 	22.29 	2.63 	50.8 	36 	9 
AA Donald (SA) 	1992-2002 	69 	123 	14906 	7113 	316 	7/84 	12/139 	22.50 	2.86 	47.1 	19 	2 
Imran Khan (Pak) 	1971-1992 	88 	142 	19458 	8258 	362 	8/58 	14/116 	22.81 	2.54 	53.7 	23 	6 
CEH Croft (WI) 	1977-1982 	27 	52 	6165 	2913 	125 	8/29 	9/95 	23.30 	2.83 	49.3 	3 	0 
MA Holding (WI) 	1975-1987 	60 	113 	12680 	5898 	249 	8/92 	14/149 	23.68 	2.79 	50.9 	13 	2 
DK Lillee (Aus) 	1971-1984 	70 	132 	18467 	8493 	355 	7/83 	11/123 	23.92 	2.75 	52.0 	23 	7 
IR Bishop (WI) 	1989-1998 	43 	76 	8407 	3909 	161 	6/40 	8/57 	24.27 	2.78 	52.2 	6 	0
RGD Willis (Eng) 	1971-1984 	90 	165 	17357 	8190 	325 	8/43 	9/92 	25.20 	2.83 	53.4 	16 	0

for spinners we should probably go by what warne, murali, laker and chandra acheived which is a SR of 66 deliveries.

JC Laker (Eng) 	1948-1959 	46 	86 	12027 	4101 	193 	10/53 	19/90 	21.24 	2.04 	62.3 	9 	3 
M Muralitharan (SL) 	1992-2009 	101 	170 	34263 	14267 	589 	9/65 	16/220 	24.22 	2.49 	58.1 	49 	16 
SK Warne (Aus) 	1992-2007 	141 	265 	39676 	17487 	685 	8/71 	12/128 	25.52 	2.64 	57.9 	36 	10 
BS Chandrasekhar (India) 	1964-1979 	58 	97 	15963 	7199 	242 	8/79 	12/104 	29.74 	2.70 	65.9 	16 	2 
Harbhajan Singh (India) 	1998-2009 	67 	122 	18971 	9012 	288 	8/84 	15/217 	31.29 	2.85 	65.8 	22 	5

[Beleg]

Originally Posted by bagapath

I always feel a fast bowler should have a SR under 60 and a spinner under 72. in that case, if the fast bowler's ER is around 3 he will take a wicket for every 30 runs conceded and if the spinner maintains an ER of 2.75 then he will take a wicket for every 33 runs given. so good fast bowlers would come under 30 and take a wicket every 10 overs. and good spinners would take a wicket every 12 overs conceding under 33 runs.

the great pacers average under 25 and the great spinners under 28. this is achieved through a combination of superior SR and ER. usually it boils down to the pacers taking about nine overs, SR of 54, for their wickets and the spinners around 66 deliveries, 11 overs, for their strikes.

but when you look at the SR of waqar and shoaib specifically they take only between 7 - 8 overs for their wickets but concede in excess of 3 runs per over resulting in a bowling average on the wrong side of 25 (minus the minnows). only freaks like marshall, donald, hadlee, garner, holding, mcgrath and trueman took less than 8 and a half overs for their wickets while maintaining a tight ER. guess we have to fix that SR of about 54 deliveries for pacers as definition of greatness in combination with an ER of under 3 runs an over.

MD Marshall (WI) 	1978-1991 	81 	151 	17584 	7876 	376 	7/22 	11/89 	20.94 	2.68 	46.7 	22 	4 
J Garner (WI) 	1977-1987 	58 	111 	13169 	5433 	259 	6/56 	9/108 	20.97 	2.47 	50.8 	7 	0 	
FS Trueman (Eng) 	1952-1965 	67 	127 	15178 	6625 	307 	8/31 	12/119 	21.57 	2.61 	49.4 	17 	3 
GD McGrath (Aus) 	1993-2007 	120 	235 	28485 	11930 	549 	8/24 	10/27 	21.73 	2.51 	51.8 	29 	3 
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 	1973-1990 	86 	150 	21918 	9611 	431 	9/52 	15/123 	22.29 	2.63 	50.8 	36 	9 
AA Donald (SA) 	1992-2002 	69 	123 	14906 	7113 	316 	7/84 	12/139 	22.50 	2.86 	47.1 	19 	2 
Imran Khan (Pak) 	1971-1992 	88 	142 	19458 	8258 	362 	8/58 	14/116 	22.81 	2.54 	53.7 	23 	6 
CEH Croft (WI) 	1977-1982 	27 	52 	6165 	2913 	125 	8/29 	9/95 	23.30 	2.83 	49.3 	3 	0 
MA Holding (WI) 	1975-1987 	60 	113 	12680 	5898 	249 	8/92 	14/149 	23.68 	2.79 	50.9 	13 	2 
DK Lillee (Aus) 	1971-1984 	70 	132 	18467 	8493 	355 	7/83 	11/123 	23.92 	2.75 	52.0 	23 	7 
IR Bishop (WI) 	1989-1998 	43 	76 	8407 	3909 	161 	6/40 	8/57 	24.27 	2.78 	52.2 	6 	0
RGD Willis (Eng) 	1971-1984 	90 	165 	17357 	8190 	325 	8/43 	9/92 	25.20 	2.83 	53.4 	16 	0

for spinners we should probably go by what warne, murali, laker and chandra acheived which is a SR of 66 deliveries.

JC Laker (Eng) 	1948-1959 	46 	86 	12027 	4101 	193 	10/53 	19/90 	21.24 	2.04 	62.3 	9 	3 
M Muralitharan (SL) 	1992-2009 	101 	170 	34263 	14267 	589 	9/65 	16/220 	24.22 	2.49 	58.1 	49 	16 
SK Warne (Aus) 	1992-2007 	141 	265 	39676 	17487 	685 	8/71 	12/128 	25.52 	2.64 	57.9 	36 	10 
BS Chandrasekhar (India) 	1964-1979 	58 	97 	15963 	7199 	242 	8/79 	12/104 	29.74 	2.70 	65.9 	16 	2 
Harbhajan Singh (India) 	1998-2009 	67 	122 	18971 	9012 	288 	8/84 	15/217 	31.29 	2.85 	65.8 	22 	5

minus the minnows is laughable.

[Slifer]

Originally Posted by bagapath

I always feel a fast bowler should have a SR under 60 and a spinner under 72. in that case, if the fast bowler's ER is around 3 he will take a wicket for every 30 runs conceded and if the spinner maintains an ER of 2.75 then he will take a wicket for every 33 runs given. so good fast bowlers would come under 30 and take a wicket every 10 overs. and good spinners would take a wicket every 12 overs conceding under 33 runs.

the great pacers average under 25 and the great spinners under 28. this is achieved through a combination of superior SR and ER. usually it boils down to the pacers taking about nine overs, SR of 54, for their wickets and the spinners around 66 deliveries, 11 overs, for their strikes.

but when you look at the SR of waqar and shoaib specifically they take only between 7 - 8 overs for their wickets but concede in excess of 3 runs per over resulting in a bowling average on the wrong side of 25 (minus the minnows). only freaks like marshall, donald, hadlee, garner, holding, mcgrath and trueman took less than 8 and a half overs for their wickets while maintaining a tight ER. guess we have to fix that SR of about 54 deliveries for pacers as definition of greatness in combination with an ER of under 3 runs an over.

MD Marshall (WI) 	1978-1991 	81 	151 	17584 	7876 	376 	7/22 	11/89 	20.94 	2.68 	46.7 	22 	4 
J Garner (WI) 	1977-1987 	58 	111 	13169 	5433 	259 	6/56 	9/108 	20.97 	2.47 	50.8 	7 	0 	
FS Trueman (Eng) 	1952-1965 	67 	127 	15178 	6625 	307 	8/31 	12/119 	21.57 	2.61 	49.4 	17 	3 
GD McGrath (Aus) 	1993-2007 	120 	235 	28485 	11930 	549 	8/24 	10/27 	21.73 	2.51 	51.8 	29 	3 
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 	1973-1990 	86 	150 	21918 	9611 	431 	9/52 	15/123 	22.29 	2.63 	50.8 	36 	9 
AA Donald (SA) 	1992-2002 	69 	123 	14906 	7113 	316 	7/84 	12/139 	22.50 	2.86 	47.1 	19 	2 
Imran Khan (Pak) 	1971-1992 	88 	142 	19458 	8258 	362 	8/58 	14/116 	22.81 	2.54 	53.7 	23 	6 
CEH Croft (WI) 	1977-1982 	27 	52 	6165 	2913 	125 	8/29 	9/95 	23.30 	2.83 	49.3 	3 	0 
MA Holding (WI) 	1975-1987 	60 	113 	12680 	5898 	249 	8/92 	14/149 	23.68 	2.79 	50.9 	13 	2 
DK Lillee (Aus) 	1971-1984 	70 	132 	18467 	8493 	355 	7/83 	11/123 	23.92 	2.75 	52.0 	23 	7 
IR Bishop (WI) 	1989-1998 	43 	76 	8407 	3909 	161 	6/40 	8/57 	24.27 	2.78 	52.2 	6 	0
RGD Willis (Eng) 	1971-1984 	90 	165 	17357 	8190 	325 	8/43 	9/92 	25.20 	2.83 	53.4 	16 	0

for spinners we should probably go by what warne, murali, laker and chandra acheived which is a SR of 66 deliveries.

JC Laker (Eng) 	1948-1959 	46 	86 	12027 	4101 	193 	10/53 	19/90 	21.24 	2.04 	62.3 	9 	3 
M Muralitharan (SL) 	1992-2009 	101 	170 	34263 	14267 	589 	9/65 	16/220 	24.22 	2.49 	58.1 	49 	16 
SK Warne (Aus) 	1992-2007 	141 	265 	39676 	17487 	685 	8/71 	12/128 	25.52 	2.64 	57.9 	36 	10 
BS Chandrasekhar (India) 	1964-1979 	58 	97 	15963 	7199 	242 	8/79 	12/104 	29.74 	2.70 	65.9 	16 	2 
Harbhajan Singh (India) 	1998-2009 	67 	122 	18971 	9012 	288 	8/84 	15/217 	31.29 	2.85 	65.8 	22 	5

How do Ambrose and Trueman measure up on this list?

[Uppercut]

For me, strike rate is crucial. Bowlers with good averages but high strike rates tend to have trouble forcing a result. I'd completely ignore ER and go by average and strike rate in tests. In ODIs, i'd go by ER and average.

[bagapath]

Originally Posted by Beleg

minus the minnows is laughable.

Originally Posted by Slifer

How do Ambrose and Trueman measure up on this list?

ok. here is the table for fast bowlers against all opposition with the cut off of 100 + wickets, ER<3, SR<57

MD Marshall (WI) 	1978-1991 	81 	151 	17584 	7876 	376 	7/22 	11/89 	20.94 	2.68 	46.7 	22 	4
J Garner (WI) 	1977-1987 	58 	111 	13169 	5433 	259 	6/56 	9/108 	20.97 	2.47 	50.8 	7 	0 
CEL Ambrose (WI) 	1988-2000 	98 	179 	22103 	8501 	405 	8/45 	11/84 	20.99 	2.30 	54.5 	22 	3
FS Trueman (Eng) 	1952-1965 	67 	127 	15178 	6625 	307 	8/31 	12/119 	21.57 	2.61 	49.4 	17 	3
GD McGrath (Aus) 	1993-2007 	123 	241 	29140 	12144 	560 	8/24 	10/27 	21.68 	2.50 	52.0 	29 	3 
AA Donald (SA) 	1992-2002 	72 	129 	15519 	7344 	330 	8/71 	12/139 	22.25 	2.83 	47.0 	20 	3
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ) 	1973-1990 	86 	150 	21918 	9611 	431 	9/52 	15/123 	22.29 	2.63 	50.8 	36 	9
Imran Khan (Pak) 	1971-1992 	88 	142 	19458 	8258 	362 	8/58 	14/116 	22.81 	2.54 	53.7 	23 	6 
CEH Croft (WI) 	1977-1982 	27 	52 	6165 	2913 	125 	8/29 	9/95 	23.30 	2.83 	49.3 	3 	0
Wasim Akram (Pak) 	1985-2002 	104 	181 	22627 	9779 	414 	7/119 	11/110 	23.62 	2.59 	54.6 	25 	5
MA Holding (WI) 	1975-1987 	60 	113 	12680 	5898 	249 	8/92 	14/149 	23.68 	2.79 	50.9 	13 	2
DK Lillee (Aus) 	1971-1984 	70 	132 	18467 	8493 	355 	7/83 	11/123 	23.92 	2.75 	52.0 	23 	7
PM Pollock (SA) 	1961-1970 	28 	52 	6522 	2806 	116 	6/38 	10/87 	24.18 	2.58 	56.2 	9 	1
IR Bishop (WI) 	1989-1998 	43 	76 	8407 	3909 	161 	6/40 	8/57 	24.27 	2.78 	52.2 	6 	0
BA Reid (Aus) 	1985-1992 	27 	42 	6244 	2784 	113 	7/51 	13/148 	24.63 	2.67 	55.2 	5 	2
RGD Willis (Eng) 	1971-1984 	90 	165 	17357 	8190 	325 	8/43 	9/92 	25.20 	2.83 	53.4 	16 	0
AME Roberts (WI) 	1974-1983 	47 	90 	11135 	5174 	202 	7/54 	12/121 	25.61 	2.78 	55.1 	11 	2
JN Gillespie (Aus) 	1996-2006 	71 	137 	14234 	6770 	259 	7/37 	9/80 	26.13 	2.85 	54.9 	8 	0
WW Hall (WI) 	1958-1969 	48 	92 	10421 	5066 	192 	7/69 	11/126 	26.38 	2.91 	54.2 	9 	1
IT Botham (Eng) 	1977-1992 	102 	168 	21815 	10878 	383 	8/34 	13/106 	28.40 	2.99 	56.9 	27 	4

Spinners with 100 + wickets, ER<3, SR<70

JH Wardle (Eng) 	1948-1957 	28 	52 	6597 	2080 	102 	7/36 	12/89 	20.39 	1.89 	64.6 	5 	1 
JC Laker (Eng) 	1948-1959 	46 	86 	12027 	4101 	193 	10/53 	19/90 	21.24 	2.04 	62.3 	9 	3 
M Muralitharan (SL) 	1992-2009 	126 	218 	41696 	16924 	765 	9/51 	16/220 	22.12 	2.43 	54.5 	66 	22 
WA Johnston (Aus) 	1947-1955 	40 	75 	11048 	3826 	160 	6/44 	9/183 	23.91 	2.07 	69.0 	7 	0 
SK Warne (Aus) 	1992-2007 	144 	271 	40519 	17924 	702 	8/71 	12/128 	25.53 	2.65 	57.7 	37 	10
A Kumble (India) 	1990-2008 	132 	236 	40850 	18355 	619 	10/74 	14/149 	29.65 	2.69 	65.9 	35 	8 
BS Chandrasekhar (India) 	1964-1979 	58 	97 	15963 	7199 	242 	8/79 	12/104 	29.74 	2.70 	65.9 	16 	2 
Saqlain Mushtaq (Pak) 	1995-2004 	49 	86 	14070 	6206 	208 	8/164 	10/155 	29.83 	2.64 	67.6 	13 	3 
Harbhajan Singh (India) 	1998-2009 	76 	140 	21135 	9938 	323 	8/84 	15/217 	30.76 	2.82 	65.4 	23 	5 
AW Greig (Eng) 	1972-1977 	58 	93 	9802 	4541 	141 	8/86 	13/156 	32.20 	2.77 	69.5 	6 	2 
PR Adams (SA) 	1995-2004 	45 	76 	8850 	4405 	134 	7/128 	10/106 	32.87 	2.98 	66.0 	4 	1
Mushtaq Ahmed (Pak) 	1990-2003 	52 	89 	12532 	6100 	185 	7/56 	10/106 	32.97 	2.92 	67.7 	10 	3

What is the right combination of SR and ER for each type of bowler to categorize him as a great?

[Slifer]

IMO I always thought of great fast bowlers like this:

Average: 25 runs or less
SR: Under 60
WPM: 4
ECON: Under 4 and over

There are also other factors i use in judging greatness of fast bowlers like how they did against the best of their time, how they perform worldwide (esp in the Subcontinent). His ability to take ten fors and 5 fors i pay attention to but not so much. There must also be a cut off in terms of number of tests played or wickets taken to judge a bowler on greatness (i usually use 25-30 tests or 100 wkts as a minimum). Last but not least i try to take into consideration the time/era in which that bowler played and the make up of the team he played for and the so-called X factor. That being said these are the fast bowlers i consider to be great:

WI: Ambrose, Marshall, Garner, Holding, Walsh, Hall, Roberts
Eng: Trueman, Willis, Statham, Bedser
Aust: Lillee, Mcgrath, Lindwall, Davidson, Johnston
NZl: Hadlee
Pak: Imran, Wasim, Waqar
RSA: Donald, S Pollock, P Pollock

There are a mountain of players who are on the cusp whom im not quite sure where they fit in in the grand scheme of things like: Gillespie, B Reid, C Croft, Bishop, Shoaib, K Miller, Snow etc etc etc. Thats my 2 cents for now

[Beleg]

i'll go with silfer, if i have to.

[silentstriker]

Originally Posted by Uppercut

For me, strike rate is crucial. Bowlers with good averages but high strike rates tend to have trouble forcing a result. I'd completely ignore ER and go by average and strike rate in tests. In ODIs, i'd go by ER and average.

If you go by average, you're not ignoring the ER.

[Uppercut]

Originally Posted by silentstriker

If you go by average, you're not ignoring the ER.

Haha, i'd say I'm ignoring it, but still taking it into account.

[bagapath]

Originally Posted by Slifer

IMO I always thought of great fast bowlers like this:

Average: 25 runs or less
SR: Under 60
WPM: 4
ECON: Under 4 and over

the ER should be lower than what you have written. 4 RPO translates to 360 runs per day in test cricket (@ 90 overs/day). great bowlers would not like to see their opposition score more than 270 per day (90 runs per session) which will be about 3 RPO.

also according to your calculation a SR of 60 balls and an ER of 4 runs means each wicket will cost 40 runs to the bowler which is way above the 25 run mark you have set.

that is why I say 3 RPO is the correct cut off in test cricket.