Crystal Ball Gazing

[Salamuddin]

Ok...people, simple question....how do you see the future of each of country in test cricket over the next 4 years .......Do you think they will move up or down the test ladder ?


Ok Here goes:

Bangladesh - Will improve but will continue to stay at the bottom of the test table.
Sri Lanka And New Zealand - Will be competitive at home, but both will struggle to win tests away from home. Sri Lanka I think will be hit bad when Murali goes. An NZ will struggle to bowl teams out without Bond.
Both teams will stay in the lower half of the test table.
West Indies - I think Lara's retirement will hit them hard but they have still got some talent. I think if Lawson can get back the pace he was showing 3 years ago (around 150 km'hr), In Taylor, Edwards, Lawson, Colleymore, Collins backed up up by Banks and Mohamed, I think will have a decent bowling unit. Still have reservations over their batting but I think they will leapfrog NZl and Sri Lanka over time.
South Africa - Don't really see any outstanding talent emerging from South Africa and don't think their domestic cricket is particularly strong. Will be a competitive team but I can't see them achieving anything more than mid table respectability.
I think they need more variety and sharpness in their pool of bowlers especially - I'm just not hugely impressed by an all right arm fast medium attack of Ntini, Nel, Kruger, Steyn, Zondeki etc.
England - England's talent base isn't as strong as Pakistan or India and their development processes are not as good as those of Australia. What they do have though is a group of five very good pace bowlers in Flintoff, Harmison, Hoggard, Jones and Anderson.
How competitive they will be I think will hinge a lot on the fitness of the five above.
India - India have some pretty good upcoming talent but can they mould that into an effective team ? They've also been very mentally fragile unlike Pakistan so that will be another big question mark over them.
Australia - Will stay in the top three due to their professionalism and resilience.
BUt once MCgRath and Warne retire, their bowling will be very vulnerable IMO.
Of all their young bowlers, I think only JOhnson has the ability to be test class.
I don't think any of Tait, Cullen, Dorey, White will be successful at test level.
Batting looks good (althou Gilchrist will be irreplaceable) but it is the bowling that has really differentiated Australia in their time at the top - so once they lose their two great war horses, they will find it difficult to dominate especially as I think Pakistan and England have much better bowling talent.
Pakistan - PProbably ossess the best talent in the world as shown by their domination at u-19 level and possess fast bowling talent that is unmatched by any other nation.
I think Pakistan will defeat Australia next time we play them but the question mark will be can Pakistan stay at the top ? Woolmer has instilled a lot of discipline and purpose but the only qestion mark IMO with Pakistan is whether that willl continue ?



Regards,

Salamuddin Janissar

 

[Salamuddin]

Crystal ball gazing

Ok...people, simple question....how do you see the future of each of country in test cricket over the next 4 years .......Do you think they will move up or down the test ladder ?


Ok Here goes:

Bangladesh - Will improve but will continue to stay at the bottom of the test table.
Sri Lanka And New Zealand - Will be competitive at home, but both will struggle to win tests away from home. Sri Lanka I think will be hit bad when Murali goes. An NZ will struggle to bowl teams out without Bond.
Both teams will stay in the lower half of the test table.
West Indies - I think Lara's retirement will hit them hard but they have still got some talent. I think if Lawson can get back the pace he was showing 3 years ago (around 150 km'hr), In Taylor, Edwards, Lawson, Colleymore, Collins backed up up by Banks and Mohamed, I think will have a decent bowling unit. Still have reservations over their batting but I think they will leapfrog NZl and Sri Lanka over time.
South Africa - Don't really see any outstanding talent emerging from South Africa and don't think their domestic cricket is particularly strong. Will be a competitive team but I can't see them achieving anything more than mid table respectability.
I think they need more variety and sharpness in their pool of bowlers especially - I'm just not hugely impressed by an all right arm fast medium attack of Ntini, Nel, Kruger, Steyn, Zondeki etc.
England - England's talent base isn't as strong as Pakistan or India and their development processes are not as good as those of Australia. What they do have though is a group of five very good pace bowlers in Flintoff, Harmison, Hoggard, Jones and Anderson.
How competitive they will be I think will hinge a lot on the fitness of the five above.
India - India have some pretty good upcoming talent but can they mould that into an effective team ? They've also been very mentally fragile unlike Pakistan so that will be another big question mark over them.
Australia - Will stay in the top three due to their professionalism and resilience.
BUt once MCgRath and Warne retire, their bowling will be very vulnerable IMO.
Of all their young bowlers, I think only JOhnson has the ability to be test class.
I don't think any of Tait, Cullen, Dorey, White will be successful at test level.
Batting looks good (althou Gilchrist will be irreplaceable) but it is the bowling that has really differentiated Australia in their time at the top - so once they lose their two great war horses, they will find it difficult to dominate especially as I think Pakistan and England have much better bowling talent.
Pakistan - Probably Possess the best talent in the world as shown by their domination at u-19 level and possess fast bowling talent that is unmatched by any other nation.
I think Pakistan will defeat Australia next time we play them but the question mark will be can Pakistan stay at the top ? Woolmer has instilled a lot of discipline and purpose but the only qestion mark IMO with Pakistan is whether that willl continue ?

Thousand apologies for double post

Regards,

Salamuddin Janissar

 

[silentstriker]

West Indies - I think Lara's retirement will hit them hard but they have still got some talent. I think if Lawson can get back the pace he was showing 3 years ago (around 150 km'hr), In Taylor, Edwards, Lawson, Colleymore, Collins backed up up by Banks and Mohamed, I think will have a decent bowling unit. Still have reservations over their batting but I think they will leapfrog NZl and Sri Lanka over time.

They've got a long way to go to leapfrog anyone.

South Africa - Don't really see any outstanding talent emerging from South Africa and don't think their domestic cricket is particularly strong. Will be a competitive team but I can't see them achieving anything more than mid table respectability.

Huh? Their domestic cricket is stronger than any in the subcontinent. In any case, we have to see what happens with SA. They played the Aussies hard, both home and away, so they can definatly improve.

I think they need more variety and sharpness in their pool of bowlers especially - I'm just not hugely impressed by an all right arm fast medium attack of Ntini, Nel, Kruger, Steyn, Zondeki etc.

Ntini is currently rated as one of the best bowlers in the world by ICC.

England - England's talent base isn't as strong as Pakistan or India and their development processes are not as good as those of Australia. What they do have though is a group of five very good pace bowlers in Flintoff, Harmison, Hoggard, Jones and Anderson.

England easily has the best domestic structure of any team, bar perhaps Australia. I think its ludicrous to say that their talent base isn't as strong. The nineties weren't a good time for the national team, but every team goes through that.

India - India have some pretty good upcoming talent but can they mould that into an effective team ? They've also been very mentally fragile unlike Pakistan so that will be another big question mark over them.

India overseas has always been a bit odd. But "mentally fragile unlike Pakistan"? Come on, Pakistan are notorious for having the most fractured team in world cricket.

Pakistan - Probably Possess the best talent in the world as shown by their domination at u-19 level and possess fast bowling talent that is unmatched by any other nation.

U-19 is a useless marker for future success. Bangladesh has a very strong U-19 side, but that doesn't mean anything at the test level. The test level is many levels removed from U-19.

I think Pakistan will defeat Australia next time we play them but the question mark will be can Pakistan stay at the top ? Woolmer has instilled a lot of discipline and purpose but the only qestion mark IMO with Pakistan is whether that willl continue ?

Inzy and woolmer seems to have made a team out of them, like Imran once did, but I am not sure if it will last. I don't think Pakistan can GET to the top, let alone stay there. You mention injuries to England, but Pakistan are hit just as hard. Shoib has always been, and likely always will be a temporary type of bowler -- someone you can count on to rarely finish a series. England in Pakistan was the very rare exception, not the rule. Asif is good, but he is also injured now. I also have to dispute the best 'talen't in other areas. They really need to work out their opening slot.

The loss of Inzamam will hurt badly, he's 36 already. Can his replacement do a good job with the unification of the team? In addition to that, he's one of the best batsman in the world...so how will that loss affect the team?

 

[FRAZ]

My friend I am afraid you are absolutely wrong .
Australia is numba 1 and will stay there for the next 10 years and please dont quote me if Pakistan wins one odd match against Aussies .

 

[Salamuddin]

Huh? Their domestic cricket is stronger than any in the subcontinent. In any case, we have to see what happens with SA. They played the Aussies hard, both home and away, so they can definatly improve.



?

I've seen South Arican Supersport series. The quality of cricket on show looked pretty average to me. I think there is greater intensity and skill on show in Pakistan's domestic comp.

 

[Salamuddin]

England easily has the best domestic structure of any team, bar perhaps Australia. I think its ludicrous to say that their talent base isn't as strong. The nineties weren't a good time for the national team, but every team goes through that.

U-19 is a useless marker for future success. Bangladesh has a very strong U-19 side, but that doesn't mean anything at the test level. The test level is many levels removed from U-19.



?

I don't think u-19 cricket is as irrelevant as people say. Yes, it is no guarantor of success at senior level but explain to me why Australia's u-19 team was competitive against Pakistan whereas England'd u-19 team looked far inferior.
In any case the top performers in the English county system are foreigners
not English. These two things tell me Englan'ds domestic structure is not that strong.
Also England A toured West Indies And India over the last 2 years, and achieved no great success.

 

[chooka_nick]

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant idea for a thread.

Bangladesh will begin their ascent to becoming a middle-class test team which can win the occasional test series. It will happen slowly but surely, and nobody should be suprised when it happens.

Sri Lanka and the West Indies may very well become a new world threat. With biffs and bashes the way to go these days, such ashigh run-rates in test matches and 20Twenty cricket rising, the Lankans will continue to slaughter opposition attacks when batting first, before using their cunning spinners to tie them up at the death. The Windies will finally begin to unearth some new talent as good as what they had back in the eighties and will surge forward, especially in test matches where their fast bowlers reign supreme. (Please Note: This will probably take more than four years )

New Zealand will struggle to win tests away from home. They'll end up unearthing about two, maybe three brilliant players every few years, but will lack the consistancy or, I suppose, the natural talent to get them all the way to the top. Could become a group of cult heroes.

South Africa will retain mid-table respectablity, endlessly choking but always doing enough to get noticed. But who knows, they may suprise me by winning something big.

Ah yes, the English. It's now or never for them, really. When England's injury rows end and you get their best players back - Flinty, Vaughan, Jones et cetera - they will either capitalise or, as has been the case for a number of years, receed back into mediocracy.

Pakistan will eventually be the world champions. At the moment they have a team of twelve players who know their roles, and a captain (Ul Haq) who's enough of a ******* to get them to the top. Ul Haq's Pakistan are as hungry and dedicated as Ranatunga's Sri Lankans; here's hoping they get up in the future.

Nepal will become the new Kenya, as the cream of the minnows rises to the top. Expect (read: pray for) an upset in the world cup which propels one of the small nations into the spotlight, like Kenya in 2003. But this time, let's hope that the ICC handles it better, giving them a longer reign as an ODI member and nurturing their development.

...having re-read this, I suppose that this isnt what my predictions are, more what I'd like to see here's hoping!

 

[Xuhaib]

I've seen South Arican Supersport series. The quality of cricket on show looked pretty average to me. I think there is greater intensity and skill on show in Pakistan's domestic comp.

What domestic cricket you get to watch???, from what i have seen there is absolutley zero intensity. I also get to watch the super Sport series and even though i admit the amount of naturally talented cricketers are not as much as you see in Pakistan but the intensity levels are much much greater.

 

[Matt52]

I agree, great thread.

South Africa...: gradually wane to be a mid table team as Kallis retires and political infighting gets the better of them.

Australia: Still no1, but perhaps not as dominant as before. I hear they have great batting talent coming through but we saw their next best bowlers in NZ last year and it didn't scare anyone. McGrath and Warne will leave a huge hole. Steve Waugh said bowlers win you test matches so unless Aussie have two more of the all time greats lined up to replace these guys then you have to assume that they will not bowl other teams out as easily as before, and thus not win as much.

Pakistan: Same old..same old, continue to produce great talent, fast bowlers, attacking batsmen and should win most games they play on paper but never seem to win them out on the field. 3rd or 4th best for the next few years.

India, Big movers, could dominate the game as it becomes more involved with 20/20 and one dayers......i.e. batting dominated games. I see them and Aus fighting for top spot. Problems with bowling though.

New Zealand: My team.....I see one or two good batsmen coming through and one or two really good (fast) bowlers but not enough to be competitive against the top nations. We will find no opening batsmen for the next 20 years and resort to putting our bowlers and "extras" out to bat first. Shane Bond will break down next year at which time NZ cricket will resort to the extraordinary measure of turning to cloning scientists and doing all sorts of test trials on human subjects, (Shane Bond and immediate family),in undisclosed locations. NZ cricket will also doctor pitches to the extent that they ARE in fact roads, batsmen will have to wait , NOT for something in their field of vision, but thru traffic to pass by before taking guard. Ambulances, ofcourse, will require a full stop in play. Because of these pitches, NZ Batsmen will be able to bat out draws agianst Nepal, Zimbabwe, and the Faroe Islands that will be met with resounding applause from the 4 people that happened to be passing by the ground at that time. (A slightly dire analysis). Seriously though, I think NZ cricket will improve slightly but basically stay middle of the road.

England: Hard to say...... The county system over there really doesnt seem to give as much opportunity to younger players as in other countries. Perhaps they will return down the test rankings and talk about that glorious year that they won the ashes. Middle of the road. Pietersen could be an great player if he improves and could dominate the England team the way Lara dominates the current West Indies... (NO I am not saying that Pietersen is as good or will be as good as Lara, I dont think he will)

Bangladesh: This is a big call but I think they could be a top 4 side in the next 6 to 19 years. If you have 100 million people who are crazy about the game and talented youngsters like Ashraful then you have got to improve from where they currently are

West Indies. Continue to decline until they are like Zim and no-one wants to play them anymore. Their great players of yesteryear will be talked about as if from another dimension......or something....

Zim: Can't see them Surviving

Sri Lanka: Decline after Murali goes...

 

[Xuhaib]

I agree, great thread.

South Africa...: gradually wane to be a mid table team as Kallis retires and political infighting gets the better of them.

Australia: Still no1, but perhaps not as dominant as before. I hear they have great batting talent coming through but we saw their next best bowlers in NZ last year and it didn't scare anyone. McGrath and Warne will leave a huge hole. Steve Waugh said bowlers win you test matches so unless Aussie have two more of the all time greats lined up to replace these guys then you have to assume that they will not bowl other teams out as easily as before, and thus not win as much.

Pakistan: Same old..same old, continue to produce great talent, fast bowlers, attacking batsmen and should win most games they play on paper but never seem to win them out on the field. 3rd or 4th best for the next few years.

India, Big movers, could dominate the game as it becomes more involved with 20/20 and one dayers......i.e. batting dominated games. I see them and Aus fighting for top spot. Problems with bowling though.

New Zealand: My team.....I see one or two good batsmen coming through and one or two really good (fast) bowlers but not enough to be competitive against the top nations. We will find no opening batsmen for the next 20 years and resort to putting our bowlers and "extras" out to bat first. Shane Bond will break down next year at which time NZ cricket will resort to the extraordinary measure of turning to cloning scientists and doing all sorts of test trials on human subjects, (Shane Bond and immediate family),in undisclosed locations. NZ cricket will also doctor pitches to the extent that they ARE in fact roads, batsmen will have to wait , NOT for something in their field of vision, but thru traffic to pass by before taking guard. Ambulances, ofcourse, will require a full stop in play. Because of these pitches, NZ Batsmen will be able to bat out draws agianst Nepal, Zimbabwe, and the Faroe Islands that will be met with resounding applause from the 4 people that happened to be passing by the ground at that time. (A slightly dire analysis). Seriously though, I think NZ cricket will improve slightly but basically stay middle of the road.

England: Hard to say...... The county system over there really doesnt seem to give as much opportunity to younger players as in other countries. Perhaps they will return down the test rankings and talk about that glorious year that they won the ashes. Middle of the road. Pietersen could be an great player if he improves and could dominate the England team the way Lara dominates the current West Indies... (NO I am not saying that Pietersen is as good or will be as good as Lara, I dont think he will)

Bangladesh: This is a big call but I think they could be a top 4 side in the next 6 to 19 years. If you have 100 million people who are crazy about the game and talented youngsters like Ashraful then you have got to improve from where they currently are

West Indies. Continue to decline until they are like Zim and no-one wants to play them anymore. Their great players of yesteryear will be talked about as if from another dimension......or something....

Zim: Can't see them Surviving

Sri Lanka: Decline after Murali goes...

Go and check when was the last time we lost a test series.

 

[Matt52]

Go and check when was the last time we lost a test series.

Calm down mate.. You are right in the sense that I dont follow Pakistani cricket so I dont know your latest results but ......my point was that Pakistan never seem to do as well as they should. You guys always seem to produce some great talent and should be up there with the likes of Aus on a more consistent basis. If you havent lost a test series for the last while that would be an exception to the up and down nature of Pakistani cricket over its history.

 

[Xuhaib]

Calm down mate.. You are right in the sense that I dont follow Pakistani cricket so I dont know your latest results but ......my point was that Pakistan never seem to do as well as they should. You guys always seem to produce some great talent and should be up there with the likes of Aus on a more consistent basis. If you havent lost a test series for the last while that would be an exception to the up and down nature of Pakistani cricket over its history.

I think there is a myth that we tend to produce the most talented cricketers, sure in the 90's we did produce and it should have been golden period of Pak cricket if not for infighting and politics but generally we are quite bare on the batting front and throughout the history India and Srilanka have produced better and more batsmen then us.

 

[Swervy]

I think you are overplaying how good Pakistan actually are!!!
Australia are still way way ahead of them , and anything but an Aussie win the next time the two countries play against each other will be a major shock.
With regards to England, the fact that they have had the problems they have actually had, and still been able to draw a series in India and pretty much dominate the series bar the last test vs Sri lanka suggests to me they will be ok for the future, and in fact are still best placed to challenge Australia...but a major factor is how and when Vaughan comes back, his captaincy is a big part of the England team.

I think India are probably next best placed after England to challenge Australia, I think the new fast bowlers for India will develop well, they just need to find a quality first change bowler I think.

 

[andyc]

Nothin' like a double thread.

Edit: That's some top quality modding right there

 

[Swervy]

oops I didnt see that other one!!!!

 

[Swervy]

Ok...people, simple question....how do you see the future of each of country in test cricket over the next 4 years .......Do you think they will move up or down the test ladder ?


Ok Here goes:

Bangladesh - Will improve but will continue to stay at the bottom of the test table.
Sri Lanka And New Zealand - Will be competitive at home, but both will struggle to win tests away from home. Sri Lanka I think will be hit bad when Murali goes. An NZ will struggle to bowl teams out without Bond.
Both teams will stay in the lower half of the test table.
West Indies - I think Lara's retirement will hit them hard but they have still got some talent. I think if Lawson can get back the pace he was showing 3 years ago (around 150 km'hr), In Taylor, Edwards, Lawson, Colleymore, Collins backed up up by Banks and Mohamed, I think will have a decent bowling unit. Still have reservations over their batting but I think they will leapfrog NZl and Sri Lanka over time.
South Africa - Don't really see any outstanding talent emerging from South Africa and don't think their domestic cricket is particularly strong. Will be a competitive team but I can't see them achieving anything more than mid table respectability.
I think they need more variety and sharpness in their pool of bowlers especially - I'm just not hugely impressed by an all right arm fast medium attack of Ntini, Nel, Kruger, Steyn, Zondeki etc.
England - England's talent base isn't as strong as Pakistan or India and their development processes are not as good as those of Australia. What they do have though is a group of five very good pace bowlers in Flintoff, Harmison, Hoggard, Jones and Anderson.
How competitive they will be I think will hinge a lot on the fitness of the five above.
India - India have some pretty good upcoming talent but can they mould that into an effective team ? They've also been very mentally fragile unlike Pakistan so that will be another big question mark over them.
Australia - Will stay in the top three due to their professionalism and resilience.
BUt once MCgRath and Warne retire, their bowling will be very vulnerable IMO.
Of all their young bowlers, I think only JOhnson has the ability to be test class.
I don't think any of Tait, Cullen, Dorey, White will be successful at test level.
Batting looks good (althou Gilchrist will be irreplaceable) but it is the bowling that has really differentiated Australia in their time at the top - so once they lose their two great war horses, they will find it difficult to dominate especially as I think Pakistan and England have much better bowling talent.
Pakistan - Probably Possess the best talent in the world as shown by their domination at u-19 level and possess fast bowling talent that is unmatched by any other nation.
I think Pakistan will defeat Australia next time we play them but the question mark will be can Pakistan stay at the top ? Woolmer has instilled a lot of discipline and purpose but the only qestion mark IMO with Pakistan is whether that willl continue ?

Thousand apologies for double post

Regards,

Salamuddin Janissar

I think you are overplaying how good Pakistan actually are!!!
Australia are still way way ahead of them , and anything but an Aussie win the next time the two countries play against each other will be a major shock.
With regards to England, the fact that they have had the problems they have actually had, and still been able to draw a series in India and pretty much dominate the series bar the last test vs Sri lanka suggests to me they will be ok for the future, and in fact are still best placed to challenge Australia...but a major factor is how and when Vaughan comes back, his captaincy is a big part of the England team.

I think India are probably next best placed after England to challenge Australia, I think the new fast bowlers for India will develop well, they just need to find a quality first change bowler I think.

 

[marc71178]

I don't think u-19 cricket is as irrelevant as people say. Yes, it is no guarantor of success at senior level but explain to me why Australia's u-19 team was competitive against Pakistan whereas England'd u-19 team looked far inferior.

Explain to us how so few U19 players make it in FC Cricket, let alone Tests?

 

[Sir Redman]

IMO, the biggest obstacle to NZ becoming stronger in the future is our board. Over the last few years the number of full test series we have played has been steadily decreasing to the point where we are only playing 2 tests in the next 18 months or so. Our board are continually making excuses for this lack of action, with comments like "the weather is unpredictable" and "the World Cup is our focus for the moment, this is just a blip", which are doing absolutely nothing to rectify the situation. There is no way that we are going to produce our next Hadlee or Crowe unless we actually start playing test cricket again. One-day cricket and 20/20 are not going to do anything to develop our game to the point where we can start winning consistently away from home. I'm actually hoping that we fail in the upcoming 20/20 World Cup because I know that if we succeed our board will go into overkill on 20/20 and we'll see even less test cricket.

Our domestic game is actually a lot stronger now than it has been for a while; if you look at the number of hundreds batsmen are scoring each year there has been a big increase in the last 5 seasons or so, while slowly but reasonably steadily the number of dibbly-dobbly medium pacers taking stacks of wickets are dwindling (go away, Tama Canning). We have some extremely talented players coming through, the likes of Ross Taylor, Jesse Ryder and Peter Fulton are well capable of rising to the top level if given the chance. I'm actually looking forward to when the old guard of Fleming, Astle and Styris retire so we can get a good look at these guys.

The other big obstacle to our development is John Bracewell. While he is in charge and screwing around with batting lineups we might never see the best of some of our up-and-coming players. Hopefully Bracewell gets sacked after the 2007 WC and we can get someone like John Wright in who actually knows something about the makeup of a cricket team.

 

[Autobahn]

Couple of points:

A lot of pakistan's possible future sucess will rely on Khan managing to do an inzy and really keep the team together, if he can do it then they will be a very good side but there's a lot of work to do.

Aus are really gonna struggle when McGrath and Warne retire, batting isn't a problem at all but Lee can't be expected to carry the bowling.

India's sucess will rely heavy on the pacemen really performing well, for that will slove the problem they have often had winning overseas.

Plus U-19 sucess is a very vauge indication, the youngsters still need to molded into the test players they might be.

 

[Autobahn]

Our domestic game is actually a lot stronger now than it has been for a while; if you look at the number of hundreds batsmen are scoring each year there has been a big increase in the last 5 seasons or so, while slowly but reasonably steadily the number of dibbly-dobbly medium pacers taking stacks of wickets are dwindling (go away, Tama Canning). We have some extremely talented players coming through, the likes of Ross Taylor, Jesse Ryder and Peter Fulton are well capable of rising to the top level if given the chance. I'm actually looking forward to when the old guard of Fleming, Astle and Styris retire so we can get a good look at these guys.

Doesn't Ryder bowl some dibbly-dobblers?