View Poll Results: Who will win?

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  • England

    8 20.51%
  • Australia

    25 64.10%
  • Draw (crims retain)

    6 15.38%
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Thread: 4th thread - who's going to win?

  1. #1
    Eternal Optimist / Cricket Web Staff Member GIMH's Avatar
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    4th thread - who's going to win?

    Oz's away record makes me far more confident than most of my compatriots seem to be. 4-0 England.

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  2. #2
    Hall of Fame Member Pothas's Avatar
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    Yep, England.

    I do think Australia are a bit overrated by the media in England. So much depends on Harris and Johnson though.

  3. #3
    Eternal Optimist / Cricket Web Staff Member GIMH's Avatar
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    I think England at large still sees Australia as the almighty

    When NZ were putting us to the sword last week I was seeing comments like 'just imagine what Australia will do to us' as though there's this vast gulf between the kiwis and them. Australia are better sure, but not by that much.

    Johnson will do nothing.

    I've changed my mind. 5-0 to England.

  4. #4
    Global Moderator Cabinet96's Avatar
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    Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
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  5. #5
    International Regular The Battlers Prince's Avatar
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    England haven't produced players the likes of Root and Cook for a long time and I can't be certain when they'll play poorly. I really don't think Australia are playing well away from home either bar random games.
    Still not going to back England but maybe Australia 2-1 with Johnson in the side to overshadow slower English pitches
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  6. #6
    International Captain BeeGee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cabinet96 View Post
    Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
    Predicting an England win in Australia is a huge call. Predicting an England win in England isn't.
    I'm fascinated to see how Australia goes in the WI. I think that series is going to be more competitive than many predict.

  7. #7
    Hall of Fame Member morgieb's Avatar
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    I'll take the draw. Still a tad unconvinced about England's bowling....and I think our bowling > New Zealand's. That said England are a good side at home and our batting isn't exactly flash.
    5-0

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  8. #8
    International Captain Adders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cabinet96 View Post
    Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.
    Same. I have taken a bit of confidence out of the NZ series and think we're playing some decent cricket now and like GIMH says there is not a great gulf between NZ and Australia so I certainly have some hope.

    That said I still think Australia will start as favorites and I'm not game enough to call it at this stage.

  9. #9
    Hall of Fame Member morgieb's Avatar
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    Doing a player-by-player analysis:

    Openers:

    Warner > Cook
    Rogers > Lyth

    First one is borderline, but up until recently Cook's form had been iffy....whereas Warner's been killing it at Test level for about 18 months. Question marks over whether Warner can handle English conditions, but Cook's record against Australia (2010/11 notwithstanding) is pretty poor. As for the second one....Lyth is still untested at Test level, whereas Rogers has lots of experience in English conditions and has proven to be very solid in his brief Test career.

    Middle order:

    S Marsh < Ballance
    Smith < Root
    Clarke > Bell
    M Marsh/Watson < Stokes

    I don't know who's gonna bat 3 for us....but if it's Marsh or Watson they aren't likely to be convincing....and Smith's untested at #3 and I'm skeptical as to how well he's suited up there. That said Ballance is no great shakes either....against strong bowling attacks he's been exposed and I expect us to bowl well. Still I'll give the edge to Ballance as he's more likely to play significant innings than Watson if he does get going, and isn't prone to a random shocker as easily as Darsh is. #4 is basically tied....in England I barely favour Root. Should Clarke bat 4 and Smith 3 this decision becomes a lot easier. Clarke is patchy and may only play a couple of significant innings in the series but Bell has been pretty meh for quite some time (2013 Ashes notwithstanding). If Bell wakes up that could easily decide the series. Stokes is the better all-round option than Mitch Marsh or Watson at this stage assuming he bats 6.

    Keeper:

    Haddin > Buttler

    Tight, but Haddin's done a lot more in his career so far so for now I think he's still the better option despite being pretty dire with the bat away from Australia. Buttler is promising but I can't really think of many innings of significance he's played.

    Bowlers:

    Harris > Anderson
    Johnson > Broad
    Hazlewood > Wood
    Lyon > Ali

    Anderson is excellent in English conditions...but Harris has the better ability to get his man out so he narrowly has the edge. Johnson's record in England is poor, but he also has a physchological edge over many of England better batsman. Broad is obviously dangerous but he hasn't bowled very well recently....I'd give this battle to Johnson but Broad waking up and making me eat dirt would not the least bit surprise me. Hazlewood is a perfect 3rd seamer for our attack and I can see him being very dangerous in these conditions....Wood hasn't excited me as much - this is probably the main difference between the two attacks. As for the spinner, I'm a bit skeptical of how well Lyon will bowl given that English wickets are generally less true than Australian ones....and unlike the majority of offies Lyon's not great on slower wickets. That said, Ali's prone to lacking control and a consistent length....to me you still can sorta tell that he hasn't been a true bowling option for most of his career, and I'd probably take Lyon's bowling at this stage over Moeen's. As for the lower-order's batting itself, Moeen is obviously a better batsman than anyone in the Australian tail but you'd expect a lot more resistence in the Australian tail, especially given Broad's recent "showings" with the bat.



    So 8-3 Australia, but a lot of the calls are lineball or basically tied. Another person could easily argue that one person who I've thought was inferior is better. Could be a very crazy series depending on who shows up.

    I'll be interested to see what kind of pitches England throw up. I think the slower the better for England, but on days that it's sunny I'm not sold that they can effectively exploit it in the same way Pakistan did in our tour to the UAE.

  10. #10
    Dan
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    Openers:
    Cook & Lyth vs. Warner & Rogers (Cook = Warner > Rogers > Lyth)

    Middle Order:
    Ballance, Bell & Root vs. Smith, Clarke & Marsh -- Honours Even (Clarke > Root = Smith > Bell > Ballance > Marsh)

    All-Rounder:
    Stokes vs. Watson/Marsh (Stokes > Watson > Marsh)

    Wicketkeeper:
    Buttler vs. Haddin (Buttler's Batting = Haddin's Keeping > Buttler's Keeping > Haddin's Batting)

    #8 Batting:
    Moeen vs. Johnson

    Tail Wagging:
    Broad, Wood & Anderson vs. Harris, Hazlewood & Lyon (Troll runs: Harris > Anderson > Hazlewood > Lyon > Wood > Broad)

    Fast Bowling:
    Anderson, Broad & Wood/Woakes vs. Johnson, Harris & Hazlewood/Starc (Harris > Johnson > Anderson > Broad > Hazlewood > Wood > Starc > Woakes)

    Spin Bowling:
    Moeen vs. Lyon -- Honours Even

    Fielding:
    England vs. Australia

    Captaincy:
    Cook vs. Clarke
    Last edited by Dan; 30-05-2015 at 10:35 PM.
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  11. #11
    International Captain Adders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post

    Captaincy:
    Cook vs. Clarke
    If it ends up being a tight series this could be such an important factor, and lets face it there is just no contest in this department.......................Cookie by a country mile

  12. #12
    Dan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adders View Post
    If it ends up being a tight series this could be such an important factor, and lets face it there is just no contest in this department.......................Cookie by a country mile
    Ashes time: when good posters turn into one-eyed, partisan hacks

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  13. #13
    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pothas View Post
    Yep, England.

    I do think Australia are a bit overrated by the media in England. So much depends on Harris and Johnson though.
    Not as much as England get overrated by the media in England if they win a Test or two.
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  14. #14
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    if you have ever done a player by player analysis, please slap yourself hard

  15. #15
    International Captain Adders's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Ashes time: when good posters turn into one-eyed, partisan hacks
    I resent that Dan...........I've never been a good poster!!

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