England will not win the Ashes

[Jamee999]

If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.





Just saying.

So if I have a 100m race with Usain Bolt, and you predict that I will win, and someone else predicts that Usain ****ing Bolt will win, you think that half the time, I will win?

 

[Richard]

No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.

 

[Athlai]

lol

There really isn't.

 

[Pratters]

No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.

The probability of slipping and falling would be taken into account in the total number of times a runner can run the race. You can't get out of this one. You are WRONG WRONG WRONG.

 

[Jamee999]

No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.

That's not what 50/50 means. That just means that there is a chance that I could win, and that that chance is equal every time. (ie. we're treating each race as an independent event).

 

[pup11]

The probability of slipping and falling would be taken into account in the total number of times a runner can run the race. You can't get out of this one. You are WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Don't worry mate, he certainly would, he always does...

 

[zaremba]

If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.

You obviously can't be saying what we think you're saying, because what we think you're saying just can't be right (see Jameee's Usain Bolt post). So what are you saying?

 

[Goughy]

You obviously can't be saying what we think you're saying, because what we think you're saying just can't be right (see Jameee's Usain Bolt post). So what are you saying?

I had a friend from Ghana that thought the exact same. If there are two posibilities then it is a 50/50 shot as only one of two things can happen.

It was wrong then and it is clearly, obviously and blindly wrong still.

Type of logic is flawed to say the least.

 

[Goughy]

No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.

If Bolt fell then he would get up and still beat you by 10 meters.

 

[Jamee999]

If Bolt fell then he would get up and still beat you by 10 meters.

Not if he broke his leg.

 

[Pizzorno]

Being honest, I think a one-legged Bolt would still run faster than most of us.

 

[Richard]

OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.

Ergo, someone making a two-way call is really not doing something of tremendous note.

 

[Jamee999]

So if I predicted I was going to win said race, and then did, you wouldn't think anything of it, as it was a two-horse-race?

 

[Jamee999]

Being honest, I think a one-legged Bolt would still run faster than most of us.

I would love to have a 100m race with Bolt me running vs him hopping. I literally have no idea who would win.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Usain Bolt could be crushed by a falling meteor in the middle of the race, and therefore be unable to win. This is exactly as likely to happen as Bolt jogging across the line for a comfortable win.

Richard is right, you guys are all crazy.

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

Usain Bolt could be crushed by a falling meteor in the middle of the race, and therefore be unable to win. This is exactly as likely to happen as Bolt jogging across the line for a comfortable win.

Richard is right, you guys are all crazy.

 

[Athlai]

OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.

Ergo, someone making a two-way call is really not doing something of tremendous note.

Yeah but if I say Bangladesh will win this Test series and you say they will lose it. There are two options but you would be right 99% of the time while I would not be.

Isn't a coin flip, closer to playing roulette and trying to hit 00.

 

[Richard]

I'm not sure what roulette involves TBH, but I've always thought there were more than two possible outcomes? If so, it's not remotely akin to a Test series with a trophy at stake, where there can only be retention or regaining.

 

[Richard]

So if I predicted I was going to win said race, and then did, you wouldn't think anything of it, as it was a two-horse-race?

It'd obviously be a brainless prediction that came to pass only by complete chance (unless you'd gained considerable confidence in Fuller to arrange the falling meteor of which he speaks), but if there's a race between you and Usain Bolt, Andrew Garven or Allan Donald cannot win it.

 

[zaremba]

OK... if there are two possibilities, one being England regaining The Ashes, and the other being Australia retaining them, then if one person predicts one thing and the other predicts the other, one is going to be right and one wrong. It's as simple as that.

But the fact that there are a hundred percentage points to play with does not mean that the odds are always going to be 50:50.