# Thread: England will not win the Ashes

1. cop out

2. Originally Posted by Richard
If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.
It isn't a two horse race. The possibility of a draw makes it a three horse race. Now **** off.

3. Originally Posted by Richard
If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.

Just saying.
Not really. It's not that simple. What if one of the horses gets a 75 yard head start, or has three broken legs?

4. Originally Posted by Pratters
It isn't a two horse race. The possibility of a draw makes it a three horse race. Now **** off.
To be fair, Goughy didn't say "England will lose the Ashes" - he said they won't win. So it is, in fact, a two-horse race... win=true or win=false.

5. Originally Posted by Richard
If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.

Just saying.
Errm. Not sure it quite works like that.

6. Originally Posted by Richard
If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.

Just saying.
So if I have a 100m race with Usain Bolt, and you predict that I will win, and someone else predicts that Usain ****ing Bolt will win, you think that half the time, I will win?

7. No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.

8. lol

There really isn't.

9. Originally Posted by Richard
No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.
The probability of slipping and falling would be taken into account in the total number of times a runner can run the race. You can't get out of this one. You are WRONG WRONG WRONG.

10. Originally Posted by Richard
No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.
That's not what 50/50 means. That just means that there is a chance that I could win, and that that chance is equal every time. (ie. we're treating each race as an independent event).

11. Originally Posted by Pratters
The probability of slipping and falling would be taken into account in the total number of times a runner can run the race. You can't get out of this one. You are WRONG WRONG WRONG.
Don't worry mate, he certainly would, he always does...

12. Originally Posted by Richard
If one person makes one prediction in a two-horse race and another makes a different one, each has a 50\50 chance of being right.
You obviously can't be saying what we think you're saying, because what we think you're saying just can't be right (see Jameee's Usain Bolt post). So what are you saying?

13. Originally Posted by zaremba
You obviously can't be saying what we think you're saying, because what we think you're saying just can't be right (see Jameee's Usain Bolt post). So what are you saying?
I had a friend from Ghana that thought the exact same. If there are two posibilities then it is a 50/50 shot as only one of two things can happen.

It was wrong then and it is clearly, obviously and blindly wrong still.

Type of logic is flawed to say the least.

14. Originally Posted by Richard
No. I predict that at the commencement of each race, the chance is 50\50. Because there is an equal chance that he will slip and fall in every case as there is in every other.
If Bolt fell then he would get up and still beat you by 10 meters.

15. Originally Posted by Goughy
If Bolt fell then he would get up and still beat you by 10 meters.
Not if he broke his leg.

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