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The Ashes won't be close

psxpro

Banned
First of all I'm not an Aussie so there will be no bias here. But I will be supporting Australia in the Ashes. Becasue I just don't like English sports teams.

Theres been a lot of talk about this being a great potential series but I think people are getting carried away. England are definetly Number 2 at the moment, they have proven they are a very good test team. BUT Australia are still so far ahead imo.
For me a its a very good teams vs a Legendary team and Australia will be too good as usual.


What I think the Aussies will do

1: Ponting will score a lot of runs
2: Gilchrist willt ake games away from England
3: Martyn will score plenty
4: Katich will be hard to remove
5: Mgrath will we awesome again
6: Gillespie and kasper will be consistant as usual
7: Warne will Be too good and never let england settle
8: The openers will do the job most of the time, but I can see England getting early wickets at times, more so removing hayden, who isnt looking as good anymore.

Why England will struggle

1: Spinner isn't good enough, Giles won't trouble Australia
2: Their batting is good but against the aussies I think they might struggle
3: Might rely too much on a new player like strauss, even though hes been magnificent, playing Australia in tests is something else.
4: They will probably struggle vs warne


I don't think it will even be that close. England may win a test but probably after its too late. The ones they lose could be big losses.

And I hope it is that way too.
 

Blaze

Banned
I think the only way that this series will be remotly close is if England take the game to the Aussies.

First test at Lords they have to bat first and bat like NZ batted today. The only weakness I saw at all from this Australian team over the last month or so is that when they are put under pressure they tend to struggle. When the aussie bowlers were getting hit for 8-10 runs an over they started bowling all over the show. Even McGrath couldn't keep the ball on a consistant good length.

When you attack them you have a greater chance of success. They key is to show the intent early on and see how the Aussies respond because lets face it Australia don't get put under many pressure situations so they aren't used to it as much.

England should aim to be 150-2 at lunch on the first day IMO.

Still in saying all this I think Aus will win and win comfortably
 

Duncan

U19 Debutant
I want England to win and that's solely because it's getting boring to see Australia win match after match. IMO, they are the only team that has a chance of beating the Aussies. But then again, I don't think it will happen, Australia is in a brutal mood and will pounce on any weak element of England's team.
 

psxpro

Banned
Blaze I agree about the attacking thing. England will have to try to bat the way Astle, Vincent and Vettori batted today. But the real problem vs Aus in doing this is Shane Warne, I don't see how england can counter attack against him.
 

Blaze

Banned
psxpro said:
Blaze I agree about the attacking thing. England will have to try to bat the way Astle, Vincent and Vettori batted today. But the real problem vs Aus in doing this is Shane Warne, I don't see how england can counter attack against him.
Yea but he is not likely to bowl inside the first hour is he so England could be 75-1 or 2 and be feeling confident and that would help them deal with Warne.

Or they could just block Warne out and attack the bowler from the other end.
 

psxpro

Banned
I still Think Aus will be too good though, I've heard too many english people get too excited. Overhyping it as usual.
They aren't in the same class as Aus.
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
psxpro said:
First of all I'm not an Aussie so there will be no bias here. But I will be supporting Australia in the Ashes. Becasue I just don't like English sports teams.
The second part of that negates the first part.
 

telsor

U19 12th Man
The 'attack Aus early' theory runs into a serious problem in the shape of one G. McGrath. There is a good reason he regularly returns figures that are so phenominal in their economy.

One reason the aus attack is so good is that all 4 bowlers are very good at keeping things tight, and they're all very experienced players, so knocking them off their line wont be easy.
 

vvk

School Boy/Girl Cricketer
I believe the only way to beat this current Australian side is with spin, and therefore the only way I see Australia losing at the moment is against an Indian side in India - on a dustbowl, with 3 quality spinners bowling to them.

I think the Australian batting line-up, against an England attack with an out-of-form Harmison and an unproven Simon Jones will regularly post first innings totals in exess of 450-500.

I also feel England will struggle to match the Austrlian batting unless - Peterson is brought in, and Bell is brought in. I don't see the likes of Butcher and Robert Key troubling McGrath and Co.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
psxpro said:
1: Spinner isn't good enough, Giles won't trouble Australia
It all depends - he'll cause all sorts of problems if we have pitches like these, but given that that's unlikely, no, he won't trouble them, because fingerspinners never do on normal English pitches.
But given how many of the Australian batsmen have clear weaknesses against the turning ball, he'll knock them over plenty on a turning pitch.
 

LongHopCassidy

International Captain
Australia won't lose a Test unless England hold them to the fifth day, and have Aus bat last on an uneven wicket. Giles will have a lot of responsibility for England in this series.

England also have a good chance if they deliberately play slowly - that way Australia back themselves to score faster in what time they have left and lose wickets by the bucketload. This tactic worked perfectly during the Sydney Test in 2002-3, when Butcher and Hussain ate up time in their first innings. Teams that have tried to "fight fire with fire" (e.g. South Africa and Pakistan) have been crushed.
 
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Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
telsor said:
The 'attack Aus early' theory runs into a serious problem in the shape of one G. McGrath. There is a good reason he regularly returns figures that are so phenominal in their economy.

One reason the aus attack is so good is that all 4 bowlers are very good at keeping things tight, and they're all very experienced players, so knocking them off their line wont be easy.
Knocking McGrath off his line is virtually impossible and so it's wholly stupid to try, it'll more than likely result in being 50-4 at Lunch.
Knocking Gillespie and Kasprowicz off their line is easier, but it's still not a strategy you'd be wise to try.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
Blaze said:
I think the only way that this series will be remotly close is if England take the game to the Aussies.

First test at Lords they have to bat first and bat like NZ batted today. The only weakness I saw at all from this Australian team over the last month or so is that when they are put under pressure they tend to struggle. When the aussie bowlers were getting hit for 8-10 runs an over they started bowling all over the show. Even McGrath couldn't keep the ball on a consistant good length.

When you attack them you have a greater chance of success. They key is to show the intent early on and see how the Aussies respond because lets face it Australia don't get put under many pressure situations so they aren't used to it as much.

England should aim to be 150-2 at lunch on the first day IMO.

Still in saying all this I think Aus will win and win comfortably
psxpro said:
Blaze I agree about the attacking thing. England will have to try to bat the way Astle, Vincent and Vettori batted today. But the real problem vs Aus in doing this is Shane Warne, I don't see how england can counter attack against him.
Blaze said:
Yea but he is not likely to bowl inside the first hour is he so England could be 75-1 or 2 and be feeling confident and that would help them deal with Warne.

Or they could just block Warne out and attack the bowler from the other end.
If you go for all-out attack, especially if the pitch has something in it for the seamers, you're simply committing cricketing suicide.
McGrath, Gillespie and Kasprowicz are difficult enough on a seamer if you're trying to block them; if you go after them it's close enough to impossible.
What I can see, of course, is the situation where England win the toss, the pitch will clearly offer a bit, but everyone wants to avoid a repeat of The 'Gabba 2002\03, where Hussain made the right decision and got pilloried for it.
I'm pretty sure England will bat first come what may, because if Australia win the toss they'll have the confidence to stick us in, and if the pitch has something in it they will almost beyond question run into trouble, because McGrath, Gillespie and Kasprowicz don't often waste a seaming pitch.
Cricket can be an infuriatingly predictable game.
 

psxpro

Banned
Its better than blocking them or leaving them. its always easier to attack. Its clearly true that in recent years with the exception of dravid most player that have succedded vs aussie have been batsmen who are prepared to take it to them.

btw By not being bias I mean in my analysis, I beleive everything I said, where as if i was talking about my team (NZ) i'd naturally without realising probably talk them up.
 

Richard

Cricket Web Staff Member
psxpro said:
Its better than blocking them or leaving them. its always easier to attack. Its clearly true that in recent years with the exception of dravid most player that have succedded vs aussie have been batsmen who are prepared to take it to them.
Hmm... who exactly has succeeded against them in the last 6 years, then?
And what has been their strike-rates in the relevant innings?
btw By not being bias I mean in my analysis, I beleive everything I said, where as if i was talking about my team (NZ) i'd naturally without realising probably talk them up.
Yet you've admitted that you don't like English teams.
Therefore you are likely to be biased against them.
 

psxpro

Banned
Richard said:
Hmm... who exactly has succeeded against them in the last 6 years, then?
And what has been their strike-rates in the relevant innings?

Yet you've admitted that you don't like English teams.
Therefore you are likely to be biased against them.

Some players who have scored runs against them when they have been aggressive- Sehwag, Oram, Cairns, Vaughn (he may not have had a big strike rate but he was positive).

Even today, when Vincent and astle started attacking they didnt bowl as well.
Attacking doesnt mean swinging your bat at everything, its called being positive and playing more strokes.If you just keep blocking, chances are you will probably get out.
I think england can make the series a lot closer if their batsmen attack more.

I Don't want the england team to win but when im predicting im not being bias at all, I rate this English team as comfortably no 2 but still theres a huge gap between Aussie and them.
 

vvk

School Boy/Girl Cricketer
Butcher's ave. against Aus is inflated because of that one century in a dead-rubber game. I don't see him performing under pressure against the Aussies.
 

FaaipDeOiad

Hall of Fame Member
Richard said:
Hmm... who exactly has succeeded against them in the last 6 years, then?
And what has been their strike-rates in the relevant innings?
Lara, Tendulkar, Sehwag, Vaughan, Oram, Laxman... hell, Jayasuria. Batsman who take the Australian bowlers on are generally more successful than those who try and defend them, because there's nobody to target if you see McGrath or Warne off... Gillespie and Kasprowicz are pretty fair bowlers as well you know.

There have been plenty of batsman who have tried to attack the Australians and failed, but there really haven't been any batsman who have succeeded by trying to block out McGrath and Warne and going after the others. Dravid, Chopra, and most of the New Zealand side have tried it just in the last few months and not done well at all. The batsman who have had success against Australia in that time have been Sehwag, Oram and Marshall.
 

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