So like over a 5-match Series, 10 catches. An average one will take 7 of those while an elite will 9. And on average that costs a team around ~70 runs. An elite no 8 who scores 30 RPI and an average does, let's say 16. That's an advantage of around ~140 runs. That's almost twice as valuable, on the mean.
Very interested in responding to this.
Let's say 10 chances in a 10 test series, Mark / Hooper / Kallis / Sobers / Taylor takes between 9 and 10, the average today is much less, think we all watched cricket the last few months, so let's say the average takes 6.
But two of those missed four goes into hit match winning innings.
In the BGT, I think Khawaja dropped I think 3 or 4? One if those was Jaiswal that led to India winning that test. It doesn't take as many as you think.
Smith dropped 2, one led to India avoiding the follow on and Australia losing the opportunity to win that game.
In the WTC final, SA caught all of there chances, two in particular in the first innings were excellent if not spectacular.
The teams had 2 very much above average no. 8's, neither fired for the match.
It's not always about raw numbers, it's about situations and moments. Again I say, watch the damn game.
I referenced some examples for slip catchers just now, how about lower order batters. Yes, occasionally they do fire when needed. More often than not though, the nature of the position generally dictates that most lower order bats, tend to cash in during drawn / high scoring matches, where the impact is minimal, but they sure do make the average look great. While they meekly fold the vast majority of times difficult or critical conditions.
Sadly not all runs are the same, and most of those 140 difference were in less than heroic conditions. Even Subz has consistently said over the years, that most of Pollock's runs lacked impact.
But this is what happens when you read the sport through spread sheets.
But if you want to play that game. The elite no. 8 is at about 30 rpi as you put it (definitely single digit number of players from history). If a dropped chance cost ~33, isn't that the value of a taken one as well? We're already matching the value of a no. 8, and the no. 8 (the few capable of this in the first place), isn't hitting that total consistently.
I've seen Waugh JR, Hooper, Richardson, Viv, Sobers etc take chances others just aren't. I've seen Smith take chances that the avenge slip is taking as a half volley and they're saying good stop.
Interesting post from an article I previously shared
Stats doesn't cover everything.
But just for a few mins look back at the teams that have won, and how they won, the strengths they shared and the keys to their victories, a stronger trend appears.