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ICC test team ratings adjusted

Days of Grace

International Captain
Cricinfo has recently released an article about the recent update of the ICC official test team ratings system, as developed by David Kendix.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/...ecame-no-1-and-india-slipped-to-third-1298333

Australia has gone to number 1 whilst India is now at number 3. One of the issues with the official system that was raised in the article is that there is no difference between home and away performances. It is inferred that India are hard done by with the system (although I wonder if there would be any complaints if India earnt a no.1 ranking based on a string of home test wins?).

With this in mind, I have been factoring in my own adjustments to the official system. I have made adjustments for home and away performances. If you play at home, your opponent's rating decreases by 5 points. If you play away, your opponent's rating increases by 5 points.

I have also made sure that each team's rating is based on at least 20 matches or more at the time of the May adjustment (except for new teams, in which case they need to play 10 matches to get an initial rating before they get a full rating after the aforementioned 20 matches).

Finally, I have done away with factoring in series results.

My problem is what rating to give newcomers, such as Afghanistan and Ireland? If I give them an initial rating of 100, then it causes an inflation in the ratings of the established teams. If I give them a rating of 75, then it causes a deflation. I have tried contacting the ICC and asking them what base ratings they give to new teams, but they haven't responded yet. Does anyone have any idea about this?

For the meantime, I have given new teams a base rating of 90 points.

After all my adjustments, Australia is still no.1! Followed by India and New Zealand.

Please check the attached spreadsheet. This is a work in progress so I would appreciate any feedback. Cheers.
 

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Last edited:

TheJediBrah

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It's definitely a factor but the rankings are never going to be completely fair. No 2 teams have the exact same opposition at the exact same time in the exact same conditions during the period determining the rankings. It's always going to be heavily influenced by these other factors.

Bit of a diversion from the point of the thread just felt like saying it, good effort on the adjusted rankings
 

Flem274*

123/5
It's definitely a factor but the rankings are never going to be completely fair. No 2 teams have the exact same opposition at the exact same time in the exact same conditions during the period determining the rankings. It's always going to be heavily influenced by these other factors.

Bit of a diversion from the point of the thread just felt like saying it, good effort on the adjusted rankings
Plus match ups play a part.

The most recent example being Australia couldn't take a trick against India A in Australia but could flog NZ anywhere with Australia A yet NZ wipe the floor with India Anyone unless it's in India.

England were also a lot more competitive with India (home or away) than they are with Australia and New Zealand (home or away).
 

Days of Grace

International Captain
It's definitely a factor but the rankings are never going to be completely fair. No 2 teams have the exact same opposition at the exact same time in the exact same conditions during the period determining the rankings. It's always going to be heavily influenced by these other factors.

Bit of a diversion from the point of the thread just felt like saying it, good effort on the adjusted rankings
Yes, I totally agree. The only fairer way would be to make it a league, where every team plays every other team home and away in the same amount of matches. But that will never happen. Even then, as Flem pointed out, when you meet a certain opponent can be a big factor.
 

Flem274*

123/5
:laugh: if u think NZ are gonna beat India in SL, for example.
going on your posting elsewhere, i appear to live rent free in your head

Even though they're not going to play there outside of a WTC final so everyone short of a shoulder chipped dunce wouldn't have considered it when reading my post, SL is the worst Asian country you could have chosen to make your point. May as well discuss Aus v India in England, which tbh is a more likely scenario.
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
going on your posting elsewhere, i appear to live rent free in your head
:laugh:

Even though they're not going to play there outside of a WTC final so everyone short of a shoulder chipped dunce wouldn't have considered it when reading my post, SL is the worst Asian country you could have chosen to make your point. May as well discuss Aus v India in England, which tbh is a more likely scenario.
:laugh:


...

yet NZ wipe the floor with India Anyone unless it's in India.


:laugh:
 

Spark

Global Moderator
Why don't you just have two ELO-based ratings, one for home and one for away, and the overall rating is just the average of the two
 

Days of Grace

International Captain
Why don't you just have two ELO-based ratings, one for home and one for away, and the overall rating is just the average of the two
Good idea, but teams don't play an equal number of home and away matches over a three or four year period. If a team hardly ever plays away during that period, then their away rating is based on minimal data.

What really frustrates me is the lack of transparency from ICC regarding how they rate new teams. I will have to wait until Afghanistan plays their next match in September to ascertain exactly how they are rated as an opponent.
 

cnerd123

likes this
Good idea, but teams don't play an equal number of home and away matches over a three or four year period. If a team hardly ever plays away during that period, then their away rating is based on minimal data.

What really frustrates me is the lack of transparency from ICC regarding how they rate new teams. I will have to wait until Afghanistan plays their next match in September to ascertain exactly how they are rated as an opponent.
Who in the ICC did you try to contact? Could just be no one's seen the email.
 

Days of Grace

International Captain
Who in the ICC did you try to contact? Could just be no one's seen the email.
I just sent to the general enquries.

I also sent an email to the Association of Cricket Historians and Statisticians. Of course the best person to ask is David Kendix, who developed the system. But I don't know how to contact him.
 

_00_deathscar

International Regular
yet NZ wipe the floor with India Anyone unless it's in India.
Not sure about that, if we're talking tests.

NZ > India in NZ, England and South Africa
India > NZ in the subcontinent and UAE, probably the West Indies as well.

I think India would be better than NZ in Australia too, partly also because even if it's India NZ would be playing, they would **** themselves on the basis of playing in Australia.
 

ParwazHaiJunoon

First Class Debutant
It's definitely a factor but the rankings are never going to be completely fair. No 2 teams have the exact same opposition at the exact same time in the exact same conditions during the period determining the rankings. It's always going to be heavily influenced by these other factors.

Bit of a diversion from the point of the thread just felt like saying it, good effort on the adjusted rankings
If ICC consider rating of opposition players while calculating Team rankings, it would be relatively fair.
But, the real question is, who will develop its complex formula?
 

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