ICC Champions Trophy in Sri Lanka

[Neil Pickup]

Don't Rise.

If you look at Marc's "precise" odds, they weren't actually that precise. 67-33 is 2-1 and 56-44 is 5-4.

That's all it is I think - just not rounding to tens.

 

[luckyeddie]

Flame bait!

 

[Anil]

So his assertion that he thought Pakistan would beat India is "reasonable" is it compared to me thinking India will beat Pakistan.

My point was that on current form, India would be favourites to beat Pak. However, there is still some cricket to be played before the WC, so the Pak team has the time and opportunity to get their act together(although it doesn't seem likely looking at the 1st day's performance against Aus). Add to that, the fact that they are the most unpredictable team in the world and I feel there is enough reason not to write them off(which is effectively what you're doing with your 35-65 chance against India). I also looked at the fact that a full-strength Pak team would have Inzi, Youhana, Anwar and other stalwarts and a bowling attack of Waqar, Wasim(will he be there?), Akhtar, Razzaq, Sami, Mehmood.... will be formidable on the hard, bouncy pitches of SA. Another thing, the Pak team, second string, first string or whatever is always charged up while playing India for a variety of reasons which are not relevant here. Taking all this into consideration, I played it safe regarding their chances against India. As the WC approaches, that ratio can possibly change to favour either side.

 

[basil]

quote]
Pak are in turmoil at the moment.

. [/quote]
Yeah, but the World cup is not being played at this moment.A few months back SL were doing poorly and had touched rock bottom, now they are right at the top.
By the WC, all the injured players will return and i think Pak have a very good chance in the WC.A full fledge Pak team have the most potent bowling(in onedayer) and with Misbah shaping well, their batting looks stronger than before.Aus will thrash a depleted Pak team in the recent test series BUT that will have no effect on the WC.
As for odds on matches with India & Aus, i can't say anything with surity, like i won't be surprised if Pak get beaten by India or even a relatively weaker team like England BUT beat Aus in the group matches( just like the last WC).

I do think however that Aus ,Pak and India will qualify for the super Six!

 

[full_length]

Originally posted by OZOZ

Originally posted by full_length

I think India has a pretty good chance of winning the cup. At any rate, I'd back India to beat any of the three other teams widely expected to reach the semis- SA, Aus Pak! Somehow, in recent times we've played better against Aus than anyone else (there are so many players who play their best cricket against Aus), and with SA it's 50-50. We've always beaten Pak in WCs. Crow Crow!

Against Aus,India have won just 3 onedayers and lost 7 in the last 10 onedayers, so that is hardly a good record.Perhaps u had test matches in mind.

No I had ODIs in mind.
You picked ten matches but without thought to the teams that played those. India was pasted in Australia, and deservedly so- they looked like they were playing those matches because they couldnt run away and hide- except for a couple of matches against Pakistan.

In the last six matches, honours are even. Why six? because the first four matches in ten that you quote were played in that series in Australia. It's relevant, ofcourse, if we are trying to figure out which team has been better than the other over the last three years (or whatever). But it doesnt tell us anything about how these teams might compare. After the fourth of the ten matches, India and Australia met in Nairobi with Saurav Ganguly captaining the Indian team, Yuvaraj Singh, and Zaheer Khan making their mark and Indians displaying a newfound confidence (which looked suspiciously like a backlash for some vague insults or happenings of the past), with Sachin defining it at the top of the innings.
After this, came the five match series in India which Aus won 3-2.

Somehow India plays well against this team. I think that Sachin in particular will revolt and ask to open if India plays them

 

[OZOZ]

Originally posted by full_length

Originally posted by OZOZ

Originally posted by full_length

I think India has a pretty good chance of winning the cup. At any rate, I'd back India to beat any of the three other teams widely expected to reach the semis- SA, Aus Pak! Somehow, in recent times we've played better against Aus than anyone else (there are so many players who play their best cricket against Aus), and with SA it's 50-50. We've always beaten Pak in WCs. Crow Crow!

Against Aus,India have won just 3 onedayers and lost 7 in the last 10 onedayers, so that is hardly a good record.Perhaps u had test matches in mind.

No I had ODIs in mind.
You picked ten matches but without thought to the teams that played those. India was pasted in Australia, and deservedly so- they looked like they were playing those matches because they couldnt run away and hide- except for a couple of matches against Pakistan.

In the last six matches, honours are even. Why six? because the first four matches in ten that you quote were played in that series in Australia. It's relevant, ofcourse, if we are trying to figure out which team has been better than the other over the last three years (or whatever). But it doesnt tell us anything about how these teams might compare. After the fourth of the ten matches, India and Australia met in Nairobi with Saurav Ganguly captaining the Indian team, Yuvaraj Singh, and Zaheer Khan making their mark and Indians displaying a newfound confidence (which looked suspiciously like a backlash for some vague insults or happenings of the past), with Sachin defining it at the top of the innings.
After this, came the five match series in India which Aus won 3-2.

Somehow India plays well against this team. I think that Sachin in particular will revolt and ask to open if India plays them

The Kiwis have won 4 and lost just two onedayers to Ozoz in the last 6 onedayers they played togeather!
I think they pose a greter threat to Australia than anyone else!

 

[full_length]

Quite possible that the Kiwis are a threat to Australia. That's mainly because they want to beat Aussies so badly- damn everyone seems to want to!!
I dunno why but I would any day place Australia 80-20 favourites against NZ. Ofcourse if Cairns is back that changes dramatically to 60-40. Each NZ win to me is an upset (not that I am in any way saddened by an Aussie loss )

 

[marc71178]

NZ won't post any threat to OZ as they'll go out in the Group stages!

I think Oz will beat india because of the conditions being completely different.

 

[Neil Pickup]

It all depends if all this infighting between various factions in Pakistan Cricket stops for the WC. Otherwise, they're not even going to make it out the group stages.

Teams in Rank Order of Current Form IMO
(Can't remember which Group is 1 & 2 but it makes no difference..)

Group 1
South Africa
Sri Lanka
New Zealand
West Indies
Kenya
Bangladesh
Canada

Group 2
Australia
India
England
Pakistan
Zimbabwe
Namibia
Netherlands

So, on what do you base your assertion that NZ won't make the Super Six? I smell another point here..

 

[marc71178]

It was posted as a bit of a wind up to the Kiwi's on here - although suppose they lose to the Windies - would be in trouble the.

 

[full_length]

There can be trouble in lots and lots of ways.
What if Kenya upsets NZ? these things have happened before.
Then going by the form book as Neil has it Windies, NZ and Kenya could well end up at 3 wins each. I dont know how the rules go from there on, but if it's based on NNR...

And on possibilities... the wrong matches are rained out without replay...
Hey, I hope the formbook doesnt work!!

 

[OZOZ]

Originally posted by marc71178
NZ won't post any threat to OZ as they'll go out in the Group stages!


.

Not sure about that but if it happens then it would be great

Though i think they are capable of reaching the super six.Flemming's men shouldn't forget how Ozoz destroyed them in the Champion's trophy

 

[greatindia]

Originally posted by full_length
Yeah be very carefull with the ifs
I think India shouldnt go for an allrounder. This team is soon developing into a great batting side. I wouldn't want to see it ruined by trying out a bits and pieces cricketer (in the mistaken impression that he's a Kapil) ahead of the world cup. Maybe there's some point in doing that after the WC.

Nope we don't have Kapil Dev, nor does England have Bothom or Pak have Imran BUT it doesn't stop them from picking up decent allrounders in their sides (Razzak,Flintoff). I know that not much time is left for the WC , so we can't experiment alot, BUT one should not be mistaken into thinking that strong batting alone can will enable us to become champs!
All i want is an allrounder that is economical in bowling and can get some quick runs while batting, such a player as a 5th bowler can be very usefull.

 

[henochschon]

Originally posted by marc71178
NZ won't post any threat to OZ as they'll go out in the Group stages!

I think Oz will beat india because of the conditions being completely different.

Deam on Buddy, Black Caps will easily make it to the super six, though i can't say the same about the Englsih team:O

 

[marc71178]

Hey, I hope the formbook doesnt work!!

If it did, Cricket would be a very boring sport indeed!

 

[full_length]

Yeah, and I wouldn't be watching it for sure. Form book never holds in Backyard cricket

 

[Anil]

Nope we don't have Kapil Dev, nor does England have Bothom or Pak have Imran BUT it doesn't stop them from picking up decent allrounders in their sides (Razzak,Flintoff). I know that not much time is left for the WC , so we can't experiment alot, BUT one should not be mistaken into thinking that strong batting alone can will enable us to become champs!

The problem is that we don't have even people of the calibre of Razzaq and Flintoff as all-rounders. All we have right now is that sad excuse for an all-rounder, the one and only Ajit Agarkar. Sanjay Bangar, IMO is the best bet to be tried as an all-rounder before and during the WC. If we suddenly unearth a gem in the intervening period, great, just doesn't seem very likely to me. Also, all-rounder or no all-rounder, India's strength is undoubtedly in its batting, and that lineup and its stability should not be tampered with for including a supposed all-rounder.

 

[Neil Pickup]

Who was this Yadav guy who was called up for the Champions Trophy?

 

[greatindia]

[/quote]

The problem is that we don't have even people of the calibre of Razzaq and Flintoff as all-rounders. All we have right now is that sad excuse for an all-rounder, the one and only Ajit Agarkar. Sanjay Bangar, IMO is the best bet to be tried as an all-rounder before and during the WC. If we suddenly unearth a gem in the intervening period, great, just doesn't seem very likely to me. Also, all-rounder or no all-rounder, India's strength is undoubtedly in its batting, and that lineup and its stability should not be tampered with for including a supposed all-rounder. [/quote]

By dropping Mongia and bringing in an allrounder , the batting won't be effected much BUT the bowling will get stronger.Don't just bank on ur batters, if ur bowlers get pasted, then it could be disastrous for India.I personally think that India should go with 5 bowlers(Nath,Khan,Kumble,Bhajji,?) if one of them is an allrounder then thats great.

Agarakar isn't an allrounder, and Bangar is not good enough for onedayers.I am hoping Yadav will solve ur problem .

 

[full_length]

I think Anil.. answered that GI:
Every team has it's strengths and weaknesses. It would be terrific if we *also* had a terrific or even good allrounder to go with our undoubtedly high quality batsmen. As it turns out, we don't. So we should rather make our strength, namely our batting, count for more, rather than try to dilute it by including a sham allrounder, and hope that by some miraculous transformation he'll bowl and bat like we hope.

Luckily, it looks like we are in a position from which our strengths are indeed optimised enough to give us a good chance of beating any team. If the form dips for some of our batsmen, then we could have problems and will have to turn to other alternatives.
Mongia: I always had lots of faith in Badani. I hope he comes in for Mongia. Saurav ofcourse thinks highly of Dinesh and I think that's creditable: he's saying that he's not forgotten the newcomers big innings in the past. Fair enough. Perhaps we'll see a change in that before the cup? Or perhaps Mongia will justify that faith. For me it's win-win