Average 40 plus in series:
That's a bit harsh on Lara. He'd average low 30s. He'll look awkward doing it but I'd go low 30s. I think Kohli and Smith may squeeze out a low 40s series. This is purely based on both doing the same vs RSA attacks that were pretty strong imo.
It ain't harsh on Lara. He has the worst technique of all of the batters here for high rising fast pace deliveries. Had the same issue at times with Donald, Lee, Bond, Shoaib and others, just the high back lift, cramped position, not anticipating the bounce and pace and then taking his eye off the ball at the last moment.
Lara's overall average vs the faster pacemen of his time is low 30s, no reason to think he wouldn't do the same on bouncy pitches vs pace. Fun fact, Lara famously once faced up to Maco and Garner in domestic cricket and made 90 odd. Obviously, tests are a different kettle of fish.
He has those averages against attacks including medium pacers and spinners, not this next level relentless pace one. So reasonable expectation would be his average is going to drop. I argue he has a good chance not making it through the series.
Die is only a maybe. Injured is a high possibility. You think smart, accurate bowlers like Marshall and Roberts with excellent bouncers aren't going to ruthlessly exploit his weakness? He is going to get a bouncer barrage. And unlike Tendulkar who was adaptable and never got owned in a series to any bowler, Lara did have series of repeatedly getting dominated by the same pacers.
Here's a good read to explain Lara's issue with pace:
Don't use Sachin as example because he did no better vs pace than Lara and we've both already discussed this at length. He too has never faced relentless pace by 4 pacemen. Therefore, given all that, he'd fail just as bad as Lara. For evidence see how both did collectively vs Donald, Bond and the WWs.
This is good to know but how does this help his case. If anything, it explains why he had such a handicap later in his career that hurt him against high pace whereas he didn't early on.
The original question asked over the course of a series. Tendulkar is far more adaptable than Lara, can adjust his technique if necessary to still score (think of him in Aus 2003/4) and hasn't been dominated by any bowler in a series so much more inclined to think he will average 30 plus over a series.
Yeah Australia 97, RSA 98 where he was owned by McGrath and Donald respectively maxed at 30s, which is why facing an attack of 3-4 comparable bowlers at a time honed in on his specific weakness means he will average far less.
He also did average 60+ vs McGrath at home and 40+ at home vs Donald and the Ws and at least 3 of the 5 traditional wkts do favor pace. My point? It's not a foregone conclusion he'd do any worse vs the 4 prong than the others in the list. Except for the likes of Waugh, Ponting, Smith and imo Kohli.
Nah the only relevant one of those series is the early 90s one against 2Ws, before his eye problem started in 94 which you pointed out that made him shaky against pace. McGrath wasn't express pacer nor was Donald right towards career end when Lara faced him.
I'll be honest brother, I'm only arguing because I'm bored. Lara would get owned by the 4 prong, without protection in the 80s on a fcked up Sabina pitch I'd fear for his safety. That applies to most of the others fwiw.
Yeah but he a big HTB
Read above....
"I'll be honest brother, I'm only arguing because I'm bored. Lara would get owned by the 4 prong, without protection in the 80s on a fcked up Sabina pitch I'd fear for his safety. That applies to most of the others fwiw."
ik it was very unserious comment. Its only Lara anyway