Who will win tomorrow?
The last two Ashes series have been weird. In England I thought it was much closer than 3-0 suggested. In short, 3-0 was absolutely the best result England could have achieved. Australia would have won the third Test, and while the first Test was a bit flukey with Agar, it was winnable. 2-2 was the best possible result Australia could have got. I think 3-1 (England) was the appropriate result.
I'm not surprised Australia are winning now, mainly because England have serious problems scoring over 400. I always felt if Australia could do that, they'd win Tests.
There are many Australians on this board who will disagree with this, but I actually think this series has been closer than the result suggests. The problem with England is that they've lost all the key sessions. They had Australia down for about 130 in the Perth Test, and Haddin bailed them out. They had Australia down in the first innings of the first Test, with Stuart Broad bowling beautifully, but then England batted badly. Often it seems England have done some of the work, not all of the work.
Let me inspire lots of hatred and discussion by saying I actually think Australia and England are closer than Australia's 3-0 lead suggests, and I wasn't going to be surprised if England won this Test. According to cue, England had a bad day, and while people are talking about how underrated Nathan Lyon is, honestly, there were some soft dismissals on that third day.
So who's going to win tomorrow?
England are a huge shot if you ask me, and I still don't see players like Steve Smith and George Bailey as being regular Aussie Test players (despite Smith's last Test century). Australia look fragile between Clarke and Haddin if you ask me. People are talking about Monty doing the business, but I disagree. The pitch isn't bad enough for Monty to have a big series. I think Anderson and Broad need to have big games.
I think the key for Australia is Dave Warner. Regrettably neither team figured out you have to be aggressive to score runs on this pitch. If you just sit back and try to accumulate runs slowly, you'll eventually get found out. When players have tried being aggressive, like Haddin, things have improved.
Because England have let their foot off the throat so many times in this series, I'm tempted to pick Australia. It seems like they have the momentum and the pitch isn't that bad, actually. Whatever way it goes, I think tomorrow will be the most interesting day of this Ashes (which is a bit sad, since the winner has already been decided). Tomorrow has potential to be a very close ending, and I find close endings in Tests much better than ODI or 20/20 close endings.
Most of all, I hope for lots of entertaining cricket tomorrow.