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Thread: So who's going to win tomorrow? (4th Test, final day)

  1. #1
    State Vice-Captain Francis's Avatar
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    So who's going to win tomorrow? (4th Test, final day)

    Who will win tomorrow?

    The last two Ashes series have been weird. In England I thought it was much closer than 3-0 suggested. In short, 3-0 was absolutely the best result England could have achieved. Australia would have won the third Test, and while the first Test was a bit flukey with Agar, it was winnable. 2-2 was the best possible result Australia could have got. I think 3-1 (England) was the appropriate result.

    I'm not surprised Australia are winning now, mainly because England have serious problems scoring over 400. I always felt if Australia could do that, they'd win Tests.

    There are many Australians on this board who will disagree with this, but I actually think this series has been closer than the result suggests. The problem with England is that they've lost all the key sessions. They had Australia down for about 130 in the Perth Test, and Haddin bailed them out. They had Australia down in the first innings of the first Test, with Stuart Broad bowling beautifully, but then England batted badly. Often it seems England have done some of the work, not all of the work.

    Let me inspire lots of hatred and discussion by saying I actually think Australia and England are closer than Australia's 3-0 lead suggests, and I wasn't going to be surprised if England won this Test. According to cue, England had a bad day, and while people are talking about how underrated Nathan Lyon is, honestly, there were some soft dismissals on that third day.

    So who's going to win tomorrow?

    England are a huge shot if you ask me, and I still don't see players like Steve Smith and George Bailey as being regular Aussie Test players (despite Smith's last Test century). Australia look fragile between Clarke and Haddin if you ask me. People are talking about Monty doing the business, but I disagree. The pitch isn't bad enough for Monty to have a big series. I think Anderson and Broad need to have big games.

    I think the key for Australia is Dave Warner. Regrettably neither team figured out you have to be aggressive to score runs on this pitch. If you just sit back and try to accumulate runs slowly, you'll eventually get found out. When players have tried being aggressive, like Haddin, things have improved.

    Because England have let their foot off the throat so many times in this series, I'm tempted to pick Australia. It seems like they have the momentum and the pitch isn't that bad, actually. Whatever way it goes, I think tomorrow will be the most interesting day of this Ashes (which is a bit sad, since the winner has already been decided). Tomorrow has potential to be a very close ending, and I find close endings in Tests much better than ODI or 20/20 close endings.

    Most of all, I hope for lots of entertaining cricket tomorrow.

    Winner: Australia.

  2. #2
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    I would be surprised if anyone thought that England will win tomorrow. Trouble is if Australia happen to be 100 for 7 I would still make them favourites based on what has gone before, not just in Australia but even in England last summer. Agar wasn't the only so called tail-ender to make runs and thwart England. Haddin is a good batman but we have turned him into Viv Richards and seem clueless as to how to get him out. The only time I would start to get excited that we may win is if Australia are 60-9 and that isn't going to happen is it?
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  3. #3
    International Coach flibbertyjibber's Avatar
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    Australia to win by 6 wickets.

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    Eternal Optimist / Cricket Web Staff Member GIMH's Avatar
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    Us by 80 runs


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    International 12th Man Tangles's Avatar
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    On a 5th day pitch it might be in the balance but Australia massive favorites unless there's a first session meltdown. If they get Warner early and strangle Rogers and Watson it could get interesting. Would still back Clarke and Rad to get us home though.

  6. #6
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    What we are all saying is the first session is crucial......

  7. #7
    International Coach flibbertyjibber's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burgey View Post
    What we are all saying is the first session is crucial......
    and are England prepared to lose to win?

  8. #8
    Cricket Web Staff Member Burgey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flibbertyjibber View Post
    and are England prepared to lose to win?
    Good from you.

    #intent



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