Significance of the 'second innings denial' effect.

[Mr Miyagi]

I don't think there's any new information in here that everyone didn't already know

Hadlee's wpm is lower than potential because he bowled so few 4th innings overs, because the rest of his batsmen weren't great

It goes both ways :P

 

[NotMcKenzie]

In theory, yes.

In practice, no.


I'll put it this way, if the rest of N.Z.'s bowlers weren't so poor, then Hadlee probably wouldn't have taken 15 wickets in one match, because somebody else would likely have pinched some

 

[Mr Miyagi]

In theory, yes.

In practice, no.


I'll put it this way, if the rest of N.Z.'s bowlers weren't so poor, then Hadlee probably wouldn't have taken 15 wickets in one match, because somebody else would likely have pinched some

A rare time that he bowled in the final innings. Thanks M Crowe and J Reid iirc :P

http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/...st-test-new-zealand-tour-of-australia-1985-86

 

[NotMcKenzie]

Hadlee is always going to be an outlier. He has the highest WPM and is the only ATG to have bowled with basically zero support I can think of. Let's look at a couple of the other guys with a high delta (above 1) in WPI- Trueman, Hall and Snow. How were their batting and bowling lineups?

Snow had variously Jeff Jones, David Brown, Bob Willis, Peter Lever, Geoff Arnold, Chris Old and quite a few others for fast bowling competition (I recall seeing Snow bowling a lot with Arnold a lot). Hall would have had Charlie Griffith as his main bowling partner, possibly also Watson and others I don't know; and Truman, Statham mainly, with appearances from Coldwell, Flavell, and Shackleton.



Snow's main competition for wickets in the second innings would have been Underwood and Boringworth, with Titmus around earlier too, and Gifford on occasion.
Hall would have been competing for wickets with Lance Gibbs, who is a former world record holder for wickets taken.
Trueman's spin competition would have been mainly Laker, Lock, Titmus and Allen.
Hadlee would have competed with Bracewell, Headley Howarth, straight-break Boock, and Deepak Patel, who are probably not in the same caliber as many of the others above, but who are probably not exceptionally poor when compared to spin bowlers in the late 70s and the 80s.

 

[NotMcKenzie]

A rare time that he bowled in the 4th innings. Thanks M Crowe and J Reid iirc :P

Australia batted first.

That's the third innings

 

[Mr Miyagi]

Australia batted first.

That's the third innings

edited accordingly.

Still second team innings, so it makes no difference :P

 

[Mr Miyagi]

Snow had variously Jeff Jones, David Brown, Bob Willis, Peter Lever, Geoff Arnold, Chris Old and quite a few others for fast bowling competition (I recall seeing Snow bowling a lot with Arnold a lot). Hall would have had Charlie Griffith as his main bowling partner, possibly also Watson and others I don't know; and Truman, Statham mainly, with appearances from Coldwell, Flavell, and Shackleton.



Snow's main competition for wickets in the second innings would have been Underwood and Boringworth, with Titmus around earlier too, and Gifford on occasion.
Hall would have been competing for wickets with Lance Gibbs, who is a former world record holder for wickets taken.
Trueman's spin competition would have been mainly Laker, Lock, Titmus and Allen.
Hadlee would have competed with Bracewell, Headley Howarth, straight-break Boock, and Deepak Patel, who are probably not in the same caliber as many of the others above, but who are probably not exceptionally poor when compared to spin bowlers in the late 70s and the 80s.

Dipak was a batsman when Hadlee played with him. He became a bowler later. If you think they were bowling instead of Hadlee - go have a look - but they weren't. NZ wasn't bowling at all. They didn't have the runs in the 4th. Hence Hadlee averages 8 overs. It is more in the 3rd, as people give declaration cushion space, 16 overs, but still well below his 29 overs in first and second.

Like I said, McGrath and Warne both average 18% in the 4th. Perfectly matched. Teams tend to bowl their best bowlers. And I think NZ spin is historically so dire, that Hadlee is still our best achiever in India.

But big props for even knowing who Hedley Howarth and Boock are if you're not a kiwi. That's impressive.

 

[Bolo]

Snow had variously Jeff Jones, David Brown, Bob Willis, Peter Lever, Geoff Arnold, Chris Old and quite a few others for fast bowling competition (I recall seeing Snow bowling a lot with Arnold a lot). Hall would have had Charlie Griffith as his main bowling partner, possibly also Watson and others I don't know; and Truman, Statham mainly, with appearances from Coldwell, Flavell, and Shackleton.



Snow's main competition for wickets in the second innings would have been Underwood and Boringworth, with Titmus around earlier too, and Gifford on occasion.
Hall would have been competing for wickets with Lance Gibbs, who is a former world record holder for wickets taken.
Trueman's spin competition would have been mainly Laker, Lock, Titmus and Allen.
Hadlee would have competed with Bracewell, Headley Howarth, straight-break Boock, and Deepak Patel, who are probably not in the same caliber as many of the others above, but who are probably not exceptionally poor when compared to spin bowlers in the late 70s and the 80s.

All of them competing with top spinners but not that much to speak of in terms of quicks. This approach probably isn't too useful.

 

[Mr Miyagi]

All of them competing with top spinners but not that much to speak of in terms of quicks. This approach probably isn't too useful.

Bolo, you have been the absolute pleasure of a gentleman in this thread. And I appreciate it. Your manners and your candour, and even fair criticism of me for hashtags have all been beyond reproach. But discussing spinners is relevant, because I want to show this is true for all [leading] bowlers. It very very much won't be true for Joe Root and Kane Williamson part time spinners (and intuitively - we all know why), but it is true for very very good spinners like Murali and Warne, as it is true for McGrath, Streak, Hadlee, Marshall, et al.

So please let NotMcKenzie continue.

 

[Bolo]

Bolo, you have been the absolute pleasure of a gentleman in this thread. And I appreciate it. Your manners and your candour, and even fair criticism of me for hashtags have all been beyond reproach. But discussing spinners is relevant, because I want to show this is true for all [leading] bowlers. It very very much won't be true for Joe Root and Kane Williamson part time spinners (and intuitively - we all know why), but it is true for very very good spinners like Murali and Warne, as it is true for McGrath, Streak, Hadlee, Marshall, et al.

So please let NotMcKenzie continue.

I put forward a hypothesis on three players. He provided info that led me to reject my hypothesis- a simpler answer was provided, being that the spinners will take a high percentage of 2nd innings wickets. You, or he can feel free to run with whatever arguments you want. For myself, I'm happy my question has been adequately addressed and don't want more time devoted to it on my account.

 

[Borges]

McGrath with almost identical average and SR to Hadlee had the stronger bowling support and took less wickets per match (because he bowled less).

It would seem more likely that it would push someone like Hadlee down from 5 to 4.5, because that's exactly what McGrath ended up with

McGrath would probably have ended up with poorer figures overall if he didn't have another great, Warne, bowling along with him.

	tests	overs	runs	wickets	average	strike rate	wickets per match
With Warne	104	4105	10435	488	21.38	50.4	4.69
Without Warne	20	770	1751	75	23.35	61.6	3.75

 

[NotMcKenzie]

All of them competing with top spinners but not that much to speak of in terms of quicks. This approach probably isn't too useful.

Trueman played 35 (of 67) matches with Statham (70 matches), who took 252 wickets at 24.84, so he would have had handy competition for half of his career.

Hall (48) and Griffith (28) played 23 matches together, Griffith took 98 wickets at 28.54 compared to Hall's 192 at 26.38; again, handy competition for half a career.

John Snow is the only one who I think lacks a real stand-out fast bowling partner, but some may have been more effective in home conditions, and competition from the spinners may have made up for it.

It is certainly difficult, though, to find competition overlapping most of a very-good/great bowler's career from another such level bowler; I do suspect, though, that poorer bowlers may pick up enough here-and-there to provide some competition.

 

[Starfighter]

edited accordingly.

Still second team innings, so it makes no difference :P

Ironic considering you were so insistent on splitting the two. Changing your tune.

 

[Mr Miyagi]

McGrath would probably have ended up with poorer figures overall if he didn't have another great, Warne, bowling along with him.

	tests	overs	runs	wickets	average	strike rate	wickets per match
With Warne	104	4105	10435	488	21.38	50.4	4.69
Without Warne	20	770	1751	75	23.35	61.6	3.75

This is what we really should be discussing by now, along with bowling more overs in the 4th Borges. This is really where I want to ultimately go. And have done for quite some time now.

I couldn't give two hoots about wpm bar the second innings effect.

Further, look at Wasim without Waqar, or Vettorri without Bond :P

Lets talk about pack bowling and bowling more second innings overs already!

 

[Mr Miyagi]

Ironic considering you were so insistent on splitting the two. Changing your tune.

Unfortunately for you, I have not ever wavered on first team innings from second team innings. Now if you want to try and face save as this thread is not going in the direction you thought it would. Be my guest. I have all the previous posts to quote. From this and the original thread.

So you can either stay on topic, or try to attack me with ad hominem. I do not mind either way. I'm logically right. And I can produce all the supporting facts.

You can either be like JediBrah with "I knew this all the time" or you can be like Bolo, and say "I learnt something". I don't mind either way.

Or if you want to keep on denying second innings effect (3rd and 4th inings), be my guest :P (yes its your own thread topic silly :P) - I really don't mind.

So you can waste both our times with silly off topic stuff, or we can actually discuss what is happening.

 

[TheJediBrah]

It goes both ways :P

Not in the end it doesn't.

Say you walk 10 steps forward, then walk 50 steps backward. You've "gone both ways", but what way have you actually gone? You've gone backwards.

You're focusing so hard on the 10 steps forward, and thinking that it means you must be 10 steps ahead of where you were, because you're ignoring the 50 steps back.

 

[Mr Miyagi]

Not in the end it doesn't.

Yes it does.

Say you walk 10 steps forward, then walk 50 steps backward. You've "gone both ways", but what way have you actually gone? You've gone backwards.

You're focusing so hard on the 10 steps forward, and thinking that it means you must be 10 steps ahead of where you were, because you're ignoring the 50 steps back.

Show me that Hadlee/Murali/Warne/Streak/Marshall went 50 steps backwards. :P

All you seem to care about is explaining why McGrath is lower than Hadlee. I know the answer here.

What you don't seem to care about is why Streak is lower than Broad and Anderson. :P Not why Hadlee is lower than Murali. Etc etc.

The world is not Australia. Not everyone played for a superstar team.

 

[Starfighter]

Trueman played 35 (of 67) matches with Statham (70 matches), who took 252 wickets at 24.84, so he would have had handy competition for half of his career.

Hall (48) and Griffith (28) played 23 matches together, Griffith took 98 wickets at 28.54 compared to Hall's 192 at 26.38; again, handy competition for half a career.

John Snow is the only one who I think lacks a real stand-out fast bowling partner, but some may have been more effective in home conditions, and competition from the spinners may have made up for it.

It is certainly difficult, though, to find competition overlapping most of a very-good/great bowler's career from another such level bowler; I do suspect, though, that poorer bowlers may pick up enough here-and-there to provide some competition.

Hadlee competition: 37.05
Trueman competition: 26.6
Snow competition: 31.02
Hall competition: 30.54

 

[TheJediBrah]

Yes it does.



Show me that Hadlee/Murali/Warne/Streak/Marshall went 50 steps backwards. :P

Streak, Warne and Murali are not relevant comparisons. We've been over this. Marshall is a good one though, and his stats line up with McGrath's in indicating that being in a stronger team = lower wpm. What more information do you need to prove that they've gone 50 steps back?

 

[Mr Miyagi]

Streak, Warne and Murali are not relevant comparisons. We've been over this. Marshall is a good one though, and his stats line up with McGrath's in indicating that being in a stronger team = lower wpm. What more information do you need to prove that they've gone 50 steps back?

No - we have not. You think its not because you don't quite get it yet.

It is all pro rata'd and these spinners will bowl more in the first team innings.

But the rest of the thread is quickly getting upto speed.

If all you care about is McGrath, don't bother replying to me. McGrath bowls 18% of his overs in the 4th innings. Deal with it.

You want to tell me McGrath's team and Marshall's team are the two best teams of all time. I will agree subject to Bradman's teams.

You want to compare Warne to Murali or McGrath to Hadlee - lets do it properly.