Here's how I see it at the moment....
Richardson
Vincent
Fleming
Styris
Marshall
McMillan
Oram
Hart
Vettori
Tuffey
Butler
Jones & McIntosh as batting cover, with Wilson & Adams as bowling cover.
Vincent's latter form in the Indian Tests was good and IMO he was subject to some unlucky decisions - even going into the TVS Cup. His current form in the domestic season gives the selectors no reason to drop him.
With Astle's spot open I would initially slot his replacement straight in to no5 - not high enough to have to build the innings, yet still have some batting left to come to build partnerships if they have to try and save the innings.
Marshall gets the nod ahead of Jones as Jones is more of a specialist opener in the same mould as Richardson. He also gets the nod ahead of McIntosh as Marshall has current international form against the same team (even if in ODIs), whereas McIntosh has yet to make his debut. Finally Marshall was originally selected for Test cricket & made 40no in RSA in his Test debut 3 years ago as a 20 yr old, against an attack as good as the Pakistani's.
Oram gets the 'allrounder' position to himself. He claims to be more of a batting allrounder so lets see him given the opportunity do it. He has big scores to his bat, including a ton in a warm up game on the Indian tour. Batting at 7 he has enough batting to follow to show his capabilities.
He needs to play his natural game which IMO is more aggressive than his role lower down the order, as he seems to go into his shell when required to play defensively. He is usually more comfortable against seam bowling and knows he does not need to score runs off Ahktar & Sami - just keep his wicket intact & take the odd single that the different fielding requirements will allow. He needs to use his height v the spinners to break up their length, then he can attack them off their line as they will not get the same levels of assistance as they did on the sub continent.
IMO his development into a genuine allrounder has been hampered to a degree by Cairns' continued on / off selections & reputation as 'the' allrounder in the team. Personally I think Oram has contributed more to the team with the ball, and about on a par with the bat in the last 18 months or so. If he does not make runs this series then he can just be considered for his bowling as the 3rd seamer in the side, and Styris & Astle will cover the 'allrounder' positions. Oram then takes his chances along with the likes of Butler, Wilson, Adams, Cairns etc when Bond returns.
Butler gets the nod to share the new ball based upon his display in the 2nd Test v India. He had real pace in the 1st innings, and more control when he slowed it down for the 2nd when bowling in the high 130s.
Wilson & Adams get the nod as bowling cover because they are the form bowlers at this stage of the season, and both can hold their own with the bat.
Cairns does not get a look because he has no form with the ball & Styris can provide a 5th bowling option as he did in India. Furthermore there are form specialist batsmen available as cover for Astle so his batting (which has not been a factor in Test cricket for some time) is not required. Lastly with most of the established team available Cairn's experience is no longer a consideration, unlike the recent ODI series.
Do not get me wrong I am not anti Cairns, as fully fit & performing with bat & ball he still has a lot to offer world cricket in both forms of the game, let alone NZ cricket. I am just anti his continued selection when he is not 100% or is out of form with the ball, as I do not think he is consistant enough with the bat to continue to hold out specialist batting options such as Marshall & Co anymore. EG Styris is a more consistant batsman & also out performs him with the ball.
The rest pick themselves.
If anyone fails in the first Test I agree that we would be unlikely to see any changes for the 2nd Test unless thru injury. However there could be some changes ahead of the 1st Test for the RSA series.
8D
