England test team: the five bowler theory

[aussie]

4 bowlers ATM since the quality of whoever will be the test keeper to bat @ # 7 this summer is a problem, i.w (Read, Foster & Jones unfortunately).

But if the selectors go for someone like Pothas to bat @ 7 or even @ 6, a 5-bowler combination of Hoggard/Harmison/Flintoff/Jones/Panesar will be the superb to watch.

 

[Richard]

Firstly where are you getting this data from? CricInfo definately says 43.79. Check the link if you don't believe me.

http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/ci/content/player/21585.html

Bangladesh are NOT a Test-class team. Neither were Zimbabwe in 2003. Trescothick's average against Test-class teams is 41.05. CricInfo, FTR, says so (needs manual deduction of Zimbabwe from this figure).

Secondly how can you base an argument on how lucky a player is? I am going to make no pretence in to knowing what the list you mentioned before is going to look like, but is it really that much worse than one for Vaughan or even someone like Hayden would be. I trust you've seen these players in order to make a judgement on Trescothick. I can agree that technically he isn't a great player, particularly his footwork, but averaging 40+ is more than luck.

No, it's not, his average would be much closer to 30 if you take fortune out of the equation (there are a million threads where I've said how to do such a thing and I don't really want to go through it again). I have indeed watched many players, taken close note of how common things like the dropped catch are, and it beggars belief how much more common they are to Trescothick than anyone else.

Vaughan indeed was very fortunate in 2002, but hasn't been remotely remarkably so since. Hayden is probably a bit luckier than some but not anywhere near the Trescothick level.

 

[Richard]

Fair comment, but an average in the late 30s is not even that bad for an English test player.

Given that in the last 5 seasons England has been about as good a place to bat as anywhere in The World I hardly see the logic of that, given that a common standard of late has been 40-50.

 

[ozone]

Bangladesh are NOT a Test-class team. Neither were Zimbabwe in 2003. Trescothick's average against Test-class teams is 41.05.

OK thats fair enough because I didn't know you were removing Bangladesh and Zimbabwe from the average. Although his test average is actually 43.79, it is fair enough to remove these teams from the equation.

 

[ozone]

Given that in the last 5 seasons England has been about as good a place to bat as anywhere in The World I hardly see the logic of that, given that a common standard of late has been 40-50.

Trescothicks average at home in England since the beggining of 2002 excluding games against Bangladesh is 50.06. It is 50.02 excluding games against Zimbabwe (manual calculation required).

Still fail to see you're point about him being particularly lucky though. Really would like to see these lists with his first chance scores on.

 

[Richard]

Try this (if you can get it to load)

 

[ozone]

These figures on there own tell me very little. I have no idea whether this is typical of a test opener. However, even with these statistics, it is obvious that he isn't that bad. To score 7 hundreds without giving a chance shows some class.

 

[Richard]

Compare it to the scorebook scores and you'll see a massive difference.

That is all you need to know.

 

[ozone]

Yes I understand that the average of these figures is a lot lower (around 31, manually calculated, may be wrong), but is the difference between Trescothicks figures that much more than it would be between, say, Thorpes or Inzamams. Also, you previously mentioned that Hayden is luckier than most players. Without trying to start another debate, can your stats tell who is the most unlucky leading test batsman.

 

[Richard]

I can't say I've studied every player as acutely as the Trescothick case.

Of those I've taken a casual interest in, Andrew Flintoff is the least lucky. Those do not number more than 50 or 60, mind.

No batsman with a decent-length career is ever unlucky, I'll tell you that. Every batsman has far more let-offs than saw-offs, even Flintoff. Though bizarrely most of his seem to come in one innings (Antigua 2004, Mumbai 2005\06 - 4 let-offs in each innings).

At a guesstimate I'd say Trescothick has probably had about 40 let-offs in his career. That's a massive number.