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A system to determine individual Total / Home / Away rankings for all teams

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
Possibly the most contentious point of discussion while discussing test rankings (especially those of India) tends to be the Home vs. Away performance because ICC rankings don't take that in account, with that in mind I tried making rankings for all three - Total / Home / Away, I liked the numbers and wanted to check if they look alright -

(Main features on which the rankings are determined - exact numbers are complicated.)

1. An away win is 2X as important as a home win, a home loss is 2X more damaging than an away loss, a home draw is a slight loss, an away draw is a slight plus. (1/6X of an away win)
2. Matches from current year and previous year have full weight, weight is halved for each subsequent year for 3 more years (so a total of 4 + current year are taken into account.)
3. Winning against better teams give more points - losing against poorer teams leads to more loss of points. Base team strength is determined from all of the latest past series of all teams against all teams.

Rank
TeamNet PointsHome PointsAway Points
1India11113079
2South Africa10186118
3Australia9612774
4Pakistan6211939
5England628145
6New Zealand537629
7Sri Lanka50949
8Bangladesh34671
9West Indies151514
10Zimbabwe000

Let me know what people think.
 

Magrat Garlick

Global Moderator
This looks quite good. I hope you haven't done the FIFA mistake and divide by matches rather than dividing by the sum of the aged weights.
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
This looks quite good. I hope you haven't done the FIFA mistake and divide by matches rather than dividing by the sum of the aged weights.
No I divided by weighted matches, although I had to think 10 minutes for which way to go. :D
 
Last edited:

Victor Ian

Cricketer Of The Year
I think your table is about right, but I can't help but chime in with my weird observation recently in some other thread. An away win is not 2x and a home win is not .5x. The actual* numbers rather well fit the golden ratio where a home win is .61 and an away win is worth 1.61.

My numbers may have been a messup (probably) which I was happy to not bother checking, however I think you should actually derive your weightings based on the historical record, even if that is a recent historical record because things have changed since Bradman's day.
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
I think your table is about right, but I can't help but chime in with my weird observation recently in some other thread. An away win is not 2x and a home win is not .5x. The actual* numbers rather well fit the golden ratio where a home win is .61 and an away win is worth 1.61.

My numbers may have been a messup (probably) which I was happy to not bother checking, however I think you should actually derive your weightings based on the historical record, even if that is a recent historical record because things have changed since Bradman's day.
Going by my base strength data (All 90 previous series of all teams against all teams) the number of Home - Away wins is actually 125 - 61 which is even worse than 2, I picked 2 because it seemed like the nearest well rounded number to the ratio.
 

Lillian Thomson

Hall of Fame Member
The problem with all these type of rankings is that the person who devises the formula just plays around with it until the teams are in the position everyone would place them in anyway without using an abacus.
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
I think the simplest method is still what I proposed in the other thread. And I dont think you should do the double jeopardy for losses. Take the most recent home and away series for each team and award points like this -

away win - 4
home win - 3
away draw - 2
home draw - 1
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
The problem with all these type of rankings is that the person who devises the formula just plays around with it until the teams are in the position everyone would place them in anyway without using an abacus.
You are right, but it can be done only once if you keep the method consistent. So I plan to continue releasing the rankings after each new series and check if it continues making sense.
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
I think the simplest method is still what I proposed in the other thread. And I dont think you should do the double jeopardy for losses. Take the most recent home and away series for each team and award points like this -

away win - 4
home win - 3
away draw - 2
home draw - 1
Did that already, main problem is that it ignores the quality of opposition (Some nations may play more tests against weaker teams, some may not etc..)
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
To an extent, but usually the number of tests is dictated by commercial interests much more than rankings. So I feel its worth a go. Can you share that sheet then?
 

tobe_ornot2

Banned
Possibly the most contentious point of discussion while discussing test rankings (especially those of India) tends to be the Home vs. Away performance because ICC rankings don't take that in account, with that in mind I tried making rankings for all three - Total / Home / Away, I liked the numbers and wanted to check if they look alright -

(Main features on which the rankings are determined - exact numbers are complicated.)

1. An away win is 2X as important as a home win, a home loss is 2X more damaging than an away loss, a home draw is a slight loss, an away draw is a slight plus. (1/6X of an away win)
2. Matches from current year and previous year have full weight, weight is halved for each subsequent year for 3 more years (so a total of 4 + current year are taken into account.)
3. Winning against better teams give more points - losing against poorer teams leads to more loss of points. Base team strength is determined from all of the latest past series of all teams against all teams.

Rank
TeamNet PointsHome PointsAway Points
1India11113079
2South Africa10186118
3Australia9612774
4Pakistan6211939
5England628145
6New Zealand537629
7Sri Lanka50949
8Bangladesh34671
9West Indies151514
10Zimbabwe000

Let me know what people think.
You have to give more info on what numbers you used and how you used them. If you are looking at the last 5 years then what are regarded as "weak teams" and what is a "strong team"? The Indian away points are pretty high but they have not beaten what I would consider a strong side in that time period (Aus, SA and Eng). England for example have beaten SA and Ind, again strong sides.

Ultimately, the best way to see how well a team is doing is how many test series has a side won away and how many at home. I am sure you would see a strong difference in home and away form for most sides.
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
You have to give more info on what numbers you used and how you used them. If you are looking at the last 5 years then what are regarded as "weak teams" and what is a "strong team"? The Indian away points are pretty high but they have not beaten what I would consider a strong side in that time period (Aus, SA and Eng). England for example have beaten SA and Ind, again strong sides.

Ultimately, the best way to see how well a team is doing is how many test series has a side won away and how many at home. I am sure you would see a strong difference in home and away form for most sides.
Time period is current year + past 4 years (so a maximum of 5 years). Here are England's away results in that period -

Drew 0-0 to NZ in a 3 match series. Drew 1 - 1 with Bangladesh in a 2 match series. Drew 1-1 with WI in a 3 match series.

Lost 5-0 to Australia , 4-0 to India(5 matches) ,2-0 to Pakistan(3 matches.)

Won 2-1 against SA.

SA is basically their only good results.
 

tobe_ornot2

Banned
Time period is current year + past 4 years (so a maximum of 5 years). Here are England's away results in that period -

Drew 0-0 to NZ in a 3 match series. Drew 1 - 1 with Bangladesh in a 2 match series. Drew 1-1 with WI in a 3 match series.

Lost 5-0 to Australia , 4-0 to India(5 matches) ,2-0 to Pakistan(3 matches.)

Won 2-1 against SA.

SA is basically their only good results.
Are you completely discounting the year 2012, because they beat India 2-1. They have also beaten SAa s you say. That is more impressive then India losing again and again to Aus, Eng and SA away.

Also, could you answer how you came to the points that you did? And what period of time is included in your assessment?

Just tell me how many points an away test win is and then what a home test win would be.
 

srbhkshk

International Vice-Captain
Are you completely discounting the year 2012, because they beat India 2-1. They have also beaten SAa s you say. That is more impressive then India losing again and again to Aus, Eng and SA away.

Also, could you answer how you came to the points that you did? And what period of time is included in your assessment?

Just tell me how many points an away test win is and then what a home test win would be.
I am discounting the year 2012 because I'm keeping a (4 + current) year window, even If I include 2012 it will barely make any difference because past performances are weighed lesser than latest ones.

An away test win gives you 6 * opponent team strength * weight for how old the win was

A home test win gives you 3 * opponent team strength * weight for how old the win was

An away test draw gives you 1 * opponent team strength * weight for how old the draw was


[Weight by years is 4 for current or (-1) year and then halved for each subsequent year]
[Team strengths are based on the 90 last series played by each team against each team, currently South Africa has the top team strength]
 

honestbharani

Whatever it takes!!!
Are you completely discounting the year 2012, because they beat India 2-1. They have also beaten SAa s you say. That is more impressive then India losing again and again to Aus, Eng and SA away.

Also, could you answer how you came to the points that you did? And what period of time is included in your assessment?

Just tell me how many points an away test win is and then what a home test win would be.

You seem a little obsessed with dissing any ranking system that tells India are doing well. :p
 

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