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Thread: New feature - Win Probability

  1. #1
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    New feature - Win Probability

    Dave Wilson investigates if it's possible to assess individual win contributions, with the aid of possibly the greatest ever Test match.

    Cricket Web - Features: Win Probability

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    Hall of Fame Member NUFAN's Avatar
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    Interesting.

    So after realizing that the first method wasn't fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?
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    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    I love it.

    I'd automate it all for you but I don't have FOW data in my database and don't see any easy way to get it in there.
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    Rejecting 'analysis by checklist' and 'skill absolutism' since December 2009

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    International Coach uvelocity's Avatar
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    really good. can i ask how you calculate the win probability?
    Quote Originally Posted by sledger View Post
    I just love all kinds of balls.


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    Hall of Fame Member Howe_zat's Avatar
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    I nerdgasmed
    Every 5 years we have an election and have to decide who are the least obnoxious out of all the men. Then one gets in and they age really quickly. Which is always fun to watch.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    I love it.

    I'd automate it all for you but I don't have FOW data in my database and don't see any easy way to get it in there.
    Cheers mate. Spent a while doing that but don't have the nous to query it - there's still some work to do, but if you let me have your email I'll send you what I have. Also I'll let you know the required queries on the database.
    Last edited by chasingthedon; 14-05-2013 at 10:31 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by uvelocity View Post
    really good. can i ask how you calculate the win probability?
    Sure. Say a match situation is 170/3 in the first innings, I search the results for all Tests which had that same situation; say we find that there have been 259 Tests with that situation, and the results of those tests were

    batting team win: 102
    Draw: 126
    bowling team win: 31

    Clearly the home team is favoured in this situation and we can calculate each team's win probability from the above numbers, and at any stage of the match.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NUFAN View Post
    Interesting.

    So after realizing that the first method wasn't fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?
    Actually not yet as I'd need to look at all their Tests and calculatte the win probability at each stage of the match, and it isn't as yet automated. Though Rob (see above) might be able to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Howe_zat View Post
    I nerdgasmed
    Careful now.

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    Spanish_Vicente sledger's Avatar
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    This reminds me of the first chance average theory.

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    School Boy/Girl Captain Гурин's Avatar
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    'Win probability added' has been around for sometime already in baseball, is a good descriptive tool (altough not so good from a predictive point of view, but who cares), it's great that somebody started to calculate it in cricket. Then there are also the win shares, but it's a bit more difficult to work on that concept

    However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it's not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that'll be for some other time.

    Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.
    It's the pitch, stupid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Гурин View Post
    'Win probability added' has been around for sometime already in baseball, is a good descriptive tool (altough not so good from a predictive point of view, but who cares), it's great that somebody started to calculate it in cricket. Then there are also the win shares, but it's a bit more difficult to work on that concept

    However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it's not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that'll be for some other time.

    Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.
    Thanks for reading and commenting, don't think I've had one from Russia before.

    Agreed, there are other things to take into account for draws. One difficulty is, if we want to give credit to an individual for forcing a draw, we need to know at what point they started playing for a draw, or at least at what point a draw becomes a favourable result. Also, that credit would probably only be appropriate at a later stage of the game. Similarly,increasing the probability of a draw is not necessarily always a good thing.

    The information is there, but the intangibles are myriad and hugely complicate the issue.

    It seems Win Shares is a measure that takes into account everything a player does? I did come up with something along those lines, called Series Points, link here:-

    Cricket Web - Features: Series Points - A New Way of Ranking Test Players



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