Dave Wilson investigates if it's possible to assess individual win contributions, with the aid of possibly the greatest ever Test match.
Cricket Web - Features: Win Probability
So after realizing that the first method wasn't fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?
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I love it.
I'd automate it all for you but I don't have FOW data in my database and don't see any easy way to get it in there.
Rejecting 'analysis by checklist' and 'skill absolutism' since Dec '09
Rejecting 'selection deontology' since Mar '15
Moeen is a perfectly fine bowler FFS
Last edited by chasingthedon; 14-05-2013 at 10:31 AM.
batting team win: 102
bowling team win: 31
Clearly the home team is favoured in this situation and we can calculate each team's win probability from the above numbers, and at any stage of the match.
This reminds me of the first chance average theory.
'Win probability added' has been around for sometime already in baseball, is a good descriptive tool (altough not so good from a predictive point of view, but who cares), it's great that somebody started to calculate it in cricket. Then there are also the win shares, but it's a bit more difficult to work on that concept
However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it's not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that'll be for some other time.
Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.
It's the pitch, stupid.
Agreed, there are other things to take into account for draws. One difficulty is, if we want to give credit to an individual for forcing a draw, we need to know at what point they started playing for a draw, or at least at what point a draw becomes a favourable result. Also, that credit would probably only be appropriate at a later stage of the game. Similarly,increasing the probability of a draw is not necessarily always a good thing.
The information is there, but the intangibles are myriad and hugely complicate the issue.
It seems Win Shares is a measure that takes into account everything a player does? I did come up with something along those lines, called Series Points, link here:-
Cricket Web - Features: Series Points - A New Way of Ranking Test Players
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