One for the Statisticians - Batters Feast of Famine

[lug]

Hi - first post here - for a while anyway...

Is this the best place / forum to ask a (very) statistical question? I'm trying to derive a robust means of measuring a batter's decline based on their potential for less consistency after a given event in their career? I don't want to join ACS (Association of Cricket Statisticians) as I'm not a professional Cricket statistician so is there a better free forum or can I ask the question here?

Thanks

 

[Thala_0710]

You can ask anything here

 

[chris.hinton]

Hi - first post here - for a while anyway...

Is this the best place / forum to ask a (very) statistical question? I'm trying to derive a robust means of measuring a batter's decline based on their potential for less consistency after a given event in their career? I don't want to join ACS (Association of Cricket Statisticians) as I'm not a professional Cricket statistician so is there a better free forum or can I ask the question here?

Thanks

Just ask here. I'm sure we will do our very best to answer the question

 

[lug]

I can think of several batters over the years who played on past their best. In their latter years, it seemed to me that they made more very low scores and "bumped up" their averages (and therefore perhaps unjustifiably kept their places) by scoring massively against weaker opponents or on very flat pitches. The question is... How to demonstrate this.

Two problems:
1) Identify the point at which their consistency ended.
2) calculate a robust measure that will show this.


For the measure, I was thinking of the number of inns pre and post watershed that were +- 1sd of their career ave. I was thinking of trying this on those batters with (arbitrarily a 10 year test career and 6000 runs) but don't know how / where to get an inns by inns list for that many players. You can do it player by player on statsguru but I need a dataset of probably 100 batters. Cricsheet can supply it but only for the last 20 years or so but I want to go back further.

As for identifying the watershed, this presumably means subdividing the population into at least 2 samples and calculating the metric above but need to know which formula to use to select the subsamples. One obvious constraint being each subsample must contain consecutive observations i.e. inns.

A few thoughts there! Discuss! Is it statistically sound? Where to get data? Software?

Cheers

 

[Coronis]

I can think of several batters over the years who played on past their best. In their latter years, it seemed to me that they made more very low scores and "bumped up" their averages (and therefore perhaps unjustifiably kept their places) by scoring massively against weaker opponents or on very flat pitches. The question is... How to demonstrate this.

Two problems:
1) Identify the point at which their consistency ended.
2) calculate a robust measure that will show this.


For the measure, I was thinking of the number of inns pre and post watershed that were +- 1sd of their career ave. I was thinking of trying this on those batters with (arbitrarily a 10 year test career and 6000 runs) but don't know how / where to get an inns by inns list for that many players. You can do it player by player on statsguru but I need a dataset of probably 100 batters. Cricsheet can supply it but only for the last 20 years or so but I want to go back further.

As for identifying the watershed, this presumably means subdividing the population into at least 2 samples and calculating the metric above but need to know which formula to use to select the subsamples. One obvious constraint being each subsample must contain consecutive observations i.e. inns.

A few thoughts there! Discuss! Is it statistically sound? Where to get data? Software?

Cheers

fwiw, 75 batsmen have made 6000 runs, and only one played less than 10 years (Mike Hussey) About half of those played purely in the last 20 years.

 

[Qlder]

Howstat has a good record of batting and bowling decline in last 2 years of career

Test Cricket - Batsmen Average Early vs. Late Comparison

Test Cricket - Comparison of batsmens average over career

howstat.com

Test Cricket - Bowlers Average Early vs. Late Comparison

Test Cricket - Comparison of bowlers average over career

howstat.com