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Thread: Cribbage's Standardised Test Averages (UPDATED November 2018 - posts 753-755)

  1. #1
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Cribbage's Standardised Test Averages (UPDATED November 2018 - posts 753-755)

    We have a couple of threads around for standardised averages and I know I've leaked some of this work into other threads at times, but I've made it into a full-blown project over the past couple of months so I thought I'd start a thread for it.

    Introduction

    The average - be it batting or bowling - has long been used as the standard measure for one's performance in Test cricket. As well all know, however, it has several limitations on it and research always needs to be made to check just how reflective an average actually is. Variables such as opposition strength, era run-scoring standards, pitch conditions, player longevity and match situation can skew an average one or another.

    Standardisation of averages is a process that tends to remove or nullify some or all of those variables, to give a truer reflection of one's worth. Of course, no measure is absolutely perfect and you always have to take everything into context, but the goal of standardisation is simply to provide something more accurate than traditional scorebook averages.

    My Method

    What I've attempted to do is standardise averages across time and opposition strength, nullifying those variables to fullest extent possible and providing player averages that largely account for the changing run standards in cricket across decades and the differing standards of opposition teams. Of course there are still several other variables within these averages and I don't proclaim this to be a perfect measure, but I do maintain that it's a better measure than traditional averages.

    What the method essentially does is compare players to the rest of the world in each decade against each opposition, using a base average of 30.02 (the global Test average, however the base average only changes the numbers rather than the rank of the players for comparison purposes). For example, Australia's bowlers averaged 27.75 in the the 1990s, so averaging 35 against against them in the 1990s would be worth be 20 a standardised average of (27.25 / 30.02 * 35 = 31.77). This has been done for every single bowler in Test history, having broken down their records by decade and opposition. I'm working on an identical measure for batsmen, however it's not quite finished. (EDIT: yes it is)

    Possible Improvements Down The Line

    • Separation of statistics into home and away samples (EDIT: done now)
    • More accurate measures of opposition standards by having figures of each year +/- 5 rather than calender decades. (EDIT: done now)


    Both of these will, IMO anyway, significantly increase the accuracy of the opposition standards I'm measuring. As it stands, for example, a match in 1980 counts for more when determining how good a batting lineup was in 1989 than a match in 1990 does, which is an admitted flaw. Instead of grouping everything into calender decades, the measure of a batting lineup in 1989, for example, will be its average from 1984 to 1994. That will obviously require a lot more data collection.
    Last edited by Prince EWS; 23-01-2012 at 07:54 AM.
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    'Stats' is not a synonym for 'Career Test Averages'


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  2. #2
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Bowling

    Qualification: 75 Test wickets
    Current to the conclusion of this match: 2nd Test: India v Australia at Bangalore, Oct 9-13, 2010 | Cricket Scorecard | Cricinfo.com

    Code:
    		Wkts	Avg	St Avg
    
    GA Lohmann	112	10.76	16.97
    SF Barnes	189	16.43	18.63
    WJ O'Reilly	144	22.60	19.65
    JC Laker	193	21.25	19.92
    CTB Turner	101	16.53	20.08
    CEL Ambrose	405	20.99	20.44
    MD Marshall	376	20.95	20.49
    AK Davidson	186	20.53	20.58
    J Garner	259	20.98	20.74
    Mohammad Asif	106	24.37	20.99
    FH Tyson	76	18.57	21.07
    SE Bond		87	22.09	21.31
    GD McGrath	560	21.69	21.42
    Sir RJ Hadlee	431	22.30	21.63
    DW Steyn	211	23.13	21.67
    FS Trueman	307	21.58	21.68
    AA Donald	330	22.25	22.09
    SR Clark	94	23.86	22.10
    M Muralitharan	800	22.73	22.28
    SM Pollock	421	23.12	22.31
    JH Wardle	102	20.39	22.47
    Imran Khan	362	22.81	22.56
    CV Grimmett	216	24.22	22.58
    CEH Croft	125	23.30	22.85
    KR Miller	170	22.98	22.94
    DK Lillee	355	23.92	23.07
    C Blythe	100	18.63	23.18
    R Peel		101	16.98	23.20
    RR Lindwall	228	23.03	23.23
    AV Bedser	236	24.90	23.52
    CA Walsh	519	24.45	23.70
    PM Pollock	116	24.19	23.71
    J Briggs	118	17.75	23.76
    MA Holding	249	23.69	23.78
    NAT Adcock	104	21.11	23.84
    IR Bishop	161	24.28	24.16
    PS de Villiers	85	24.27	24.25
    Waqar Younis	373	23.56	24.27
    Wasim Akram	414	23.62	24.32
    RGD Willis	325	25.20	24.40
    Shoaib Akhtar	178	25.70	24.48
    WA Johnston	160	23.91	24.69
    Fazal Mahmood	139	24.71	24.75
    H Verity	144	24.38	24.85
    SK Warne	702	25.53	24.96
    AME Roberts	202	25.61	24.97
    BA Reid		113	24.64	25.04
    WW Hall		192	26.39	25.11
    DL Underwood	297	25.84	25.20
    GP Swann	113	26.56	25.25
    M Hendrick	87	25.84	25.26
    JN Gillespie	259	26.14	25.37
    BR Taylor	111	26.60	25.39
    TL Goddard	123	26.23	25.40
    JB Statham	252	24.85	25.41
    MW Tate		155	26.16	25.85
    JA Snow		202	26.67	25.90
    H Larwood	78	28.36	26.10
    H Trumble	141	21.79	26.23
    AN Connolly	102	29.23	26.35
    DW Fleming	75	25.89	26.40
    CC Griffith	94	28.54	26.57
    FR Spofforth	94	18.41	26.60
    JR Thomson	200	28.01	26.69
    RJ Sidebottom	79	28.24	26.69
    D Gough		229	28.40	26.84
    GAR Lock	174	25.58	26.85
    DJ Brown	79	28.32	26.88
    MHN Walker	138	27.48	26.89
    ARC Fraser	177	27.32	26.92
    G Dymock	78	27.13	27.13
    NJN Hawke	91	29.42	27.15
    CM Old		143	28.11	27.18
    HJ Tayfield	170	25.91	27.23
    CL Vincent	84	31.32	27.35
    M Ntini		390	28.83	27.43
    IT Botham	383	28.40	27.47
    GD McKenzie	246	29.79	27.51
    RM Hogg		123	28.48	27.51
    R Benaud	248	27.03	27.58
    GOB Allen	81	29.37	27.69
    AR Caddick	234	29.91	27.83
    TM Alderman	170	27.15	27.84
    GR Dilley	138	29.76	27.96
    Iqbal Qasim	171	28.11	27.97
    GG Arnold	115	28.30	28.05
    MG Johnson	166	29.06	28.09
    HH Streak	216	28.14	28.14
    BS Bedi		266	28.71	28.14
    Shakib Al Hasan	75	32.13	28.17
    JM Gregory	85	31.15	28.21
    PR Reiffel	104	26.96	28.22
    DR Tuffey	77	31.75	28.24
    MJ Hoggard	248	30.50	28.26
    GA Faulkner	82	26.59	28.33
    A Kumble	619	29.65	28.48
    M Dillon	131	33.57	28.55
    DJ Nash		93	28.48	28.57
    LR Gibbs	309	29.09	28.63
    BS Chandrasekhar 242	29.75	28.65
    T Richardson	88	25.23	28.67
    Harbhajan Singh	368	31.67	28.81
    RO Collinge	116	29.25	28.87
    A Flintoff	226	32.79	28.88
    M Morkel	92	30.77	28.99
    Mushtaq Mohammad 79	29.23	29.07
    JV Saunders	79	22.73	29.11
    W Voce		98	27.89	29.15
    SB Doull	98	29.31	29.16
    JM Anderson	188	31.76	29.22
    DG Cork		131	29.82	29.29
    N Kapil Dev	434	29.65	29.33
    CL Cairns	218	29.40	29.34
    B Lee		308	30.71	29.36
    AA Mallett	132	29.85	29.37
    SJ Harmison	226	31.82	29.41
    IWG Johnson	109	29.19	29.45
    WPUJC Vaas	355	29.58	29.48
    CD Collymore	93	32.30	29.52
    CJ McDermott	291	28.63	29.60
    Saqlain Mushtaq	208	29.84	29.70
    JEC Franklin	80	32.65	29.73
    MG Hughes	212	28.38	29.80
    EAS Prasanna	189	30.38	29.90
    RC Motz		100	31.48	29.95
    KCG Benjamin	92	30.27	30.07
    RG Nadkarni	88	29.08	30.26
    JH Kallis	266	31.59	30.28
    A Nel		123	31.86	30.30
    BP Patterson	93	30.90	30.51
    IK Pathan	100	32.26	30.55
    I Sharma	76	37.41	30.61
    Z Khan		254	32.46	30.78
    GE Palmer	78	21.51	30.82
    DR Doshi	114	30.72	30.88
    GF Lawson	180	30.56	30.88
    SCG MacGill	199	29.93	30.97
    MS Panesar	126	34.37	30.99
    SLV Raju	93	30.72	30.99
    AA Mailey	99	33.92	31.01
    J Srinath	236	30.49	31.07
    AW Greig	141	32.21	31.13
    MS Kasprowicz	113	32.88	31.17
    DA Allen	122	30.98	31.20
    B Yardley	126	31.63	31.25
    TE Bailey	132	29.21	31.26
    NA Foster	88	32.85	31.34
    R Illingworth	122	31.20	31.39
    MA Noble	121	25.00	31.39
    MH Mankad	162	32.32	31.52
    S Ramadhin	158	28.98	31.59
    JE Taylor	82	35.65	31.69
    KD Ghavri	109	33.54	31.73
    W Rhodes	127	26.97	31.91
    CS Martin	181	35.03	31.97
    SP Gupte	149	29.55	32.12
    EJ Chatfield	123	32.18	32.20
    FJ Titmus	153	32.23	32.21
    SA Durani	75	35.43	32.45
    Danish Kaneria	261	34.80	32.46
    Tauseef Ahmed	93	31.72	32.47
    Sarfraz Nawaz	177	32.76	32.49
    BL Cairns	130	32.92	32.49
    DL Vettori	325	33.87	32.56
    DJ Bravo	83	39.40	32.83
    PR Adams	134	32.87	32.91
    VA Holder	109	33.28	33.16
    Mushtaq Ahmed	185	32.97	33.17
    Abdul Qadir	236	32.81	33.18
    PH Edmonds	125	34.18	33.26
    PT Collins	106	34.63	33.34
    BM McMillan	75	33.83	33.36
    PAJ DeFreitas	140	33.57	33.37
    JW Gleeson	93	36.20	33.37
    AL Valentine	139	30.32	33.43
    Umar Gul	108	33.69	33.46
    SCJ Broad	97	34.31	33.54
    ST Jayasuriya	98	34.35	33.70
    SL Malinga	101	33.16	33.74
    GS Sobers	235	34.04	33.81
    PL Harris	92	37.11	34.10
    NS Yadav	102	35.10	34.16
    Abdul Razzaq	100	36.94	34.44
    DK Morrison	160	34.68	34.54
    G Giffen	103	27.10	34.56
    BKV Prasad	96	35.00	34.70
    CRD Fernando	89	35.82	34.94
    TBA May		75	34.75	35.04
    JR Reid		85	33.35	35.22
    S Venkataraghavan 156	36.12	35.43
    HJ Howarth	86	36.95	35.51
    JG Bracewell	102	35.81	35.68
    FE Woolley	83	33.46	36.35
    AF Giles	143	40.60	36.41
    DE Malcolm	128	37.09	36.42
    FH Edwards	122	39.43	36.48
    A Cotter	89	28.64	36.54
    Maninder Singh	88	37.36	36.78
    JE Emburey	147	38.41	36.85
    DVP Wright	108	39.11	36.97
    Intikhab Alam	125	35.95	37.05
    M Prabhakar	96	37.30	37.51
    Mohammad Rafique 100	40.76	37.60
    L Klusener	80	37.91	37.63
    CC Lewis	93	37.53	37.67
    PCR Tufnell	121	37.69	37.74
    SR Waugh	92	37.45	38.13
    Mashrafe Mortaza 78	41.53	38.29
    WR Hammond	83	37.81	39.45
    N Boje		100	42.65	39.63
    RJ Shastri	151	40.96	40.94
    WW Armstrong	87	33.60	41.93
    GP Wickramasinghe 85	41.87	42.19
    DBL Powell	85	47.86	42.89
    DN Patel	75	42.05	43.83
    Mohammad Sami	84	50.74	44.91
    CL Hooper	114	49.43	47.28

  3. #3
    Request Your Custom Title Now! benchmark00's Avatar
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    I'm tipping Sinclair comes out looking like the greatest batsman of all time.
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  4. #4
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by benchmark00 View Post
    I'm tipping Sinclair comes out looking like the greatest batsman of all time.
    Reckon his average might go up a bit - played Australia a lot (not that he scored any runs against them, but the runs he did score will be worth a fraction more ) and scored a gut-full against a good South African lineup. Can't see it topping 35 though.


  5. #5
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prince EWS View Post
    Reckon his average might go up a bit - played Australia a lot (not that he scored any runs against them, but the runs he did score will be worth a fraction more ) and scored a gut-full against a good South African lineup. Can't see it topping 35 though.
    28.59. Actually went down. Suppose that's what you get when you make your debut in 2001.

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    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Wow Bond's low. Most under-rated bowler of all-time?
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    He took 87 wickets, everyone knows how good he was when fit and how great he could've been if he stayed fit. But injuries had their say and I'd say he's rated pretty fairly imo.

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    Global Moderator Spark's Avatar
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    Yeah I say he's rated fairly. Fantastic bowler who never came within a light-year of his potential output.
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    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Jeez. O'Reilly averaging < 20 looks amazing.

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    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend morgieb's Avatar
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    Asif's average looks scary. Imagine what it'd be like if he didn't fix.

  11. #11
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    I think the most interesting thing is just how much Lohmann, Barnes etc dominated their eras. People talk about the poor standard of pitches and the low scores in those days, but with a standardised average around 56% of the base average, that almost puts Lohmann in the "twice as good as his average contemporary" category. They were awesome, awesome cricketers to have in the side.

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    Request Your Custom Title Now! Howe_zat's Avatar
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    Just goes to show, when people moan about the lack of quality fast bowling in the modern era they just aren't looking hard enough. Asif, Bond, Steyn and Clark all high on the list.

    Ambrose, wow. Being so high above other "great" quicks of the 90s - Wasim, Waqar, Donald, Walsh - shows just how good he really was.

    Great stuff.

    I'm willing to bet George Headley comes out on top of the batsmen. Batted basically on his own against far better teams and still averaged 60.
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  13. #13
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howe_zat View Post
    I'm willing to bet George Headley comes out on top of the batsmen. Batted basically on his own against far better teams and still averaged 60.
    Still confident Bradman will come out on top.

  14. #14
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Very interesting to see how far the averages of Chris Martin, Dwayne Bravo and Jerome Taylor have come down.

  15. #15
    Global Moderator Prince EWS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howe_zat View Post
    Just goes to show, when people moan about the lack of quality fast bowling in the modern era they just aren't looking hard enough. Asif, Bond, Steyn and Clark all high on the list.
    To be fair, they could argue that the very reason they're so high up the list is because everyone else is just so bad, as what it measures, in a nutshell, is performances relative to one's contemporaries.

    I wouldn't make that argument - I think it's crap personally - but it could be made.

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