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Thread: Who is really to blame for Australia's batting collapses post 2007 in Ashes series?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    Last year Watson DID average 65 and only made 1 hundred.
    When I was giving the 65/50 example numbers, I had more in mind the longer periods of form which are usually discussed for batsmen like a run of at least 2-3 years or 25-30 tests.

    But your numbers illustrate my point further. A top class batsman in top form over 1 year with 7-8 tests would average even 75-80+.

    And this year his average has been markedly lower - 42, with the same conversion rate illustrating my point that he has got out cheaply more often this year than last. Unless, he can start converting starts the 40-45 range is where he will end up ultimately because of the simple fact that in real life he will not get as many starts in poor form as he was when he was in top form.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hit Wicket View Post
    When I was giving the 65/50 example numbers, I had more in mind the longer periods of form which are usually discussed for batsmen like a run of at least 2-3 years or 25-30 tests.

    But your numbers illustrate my point further. A top class batsman in top form over 1 year with 7-8 tests would average even 75-80+.

    And this year his average has been markedly lower - 42, with the same conversion rate illustrating my point that he has got out cheaply more often this year than last. Unless, he can start converting starts the 40-45 range is where he will end up ultimately because of the simple fact that in real life he will not get as many starts in poor form as he was when he was in top form.
    I just totally disagree with your premise that you need to convert more to maintain a high average. Plenty of top players have maintained high averages over their entire careers despite having relatively poor conversion rates. Some players just score differently to others. Also, whose to say if Watson is even in 'good form' at the moment. He might well average 90+ next year. Just because he has been getting starts and getting out doesn't mean he is 'wasting his good form'. Maybe him getting out is due to him not being in very good form. Either case is possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TumTum View Post

    You are assuming Watson is in good form, we haven't even seen him perform badly yet to get a true idea of his form.

    Problem is those 2-3 of the top 7 fail on a consistent basis. You must allow for a few failures from the openers as well, but so far they are doing their job well, you can't expect them to score big knowing how fragile the rest of the line-up is.
    Watson is in good form. He was in bad form when he toured India in 2008. He is going to hit those kind of slumps again in the future, happens to every batsman.

    Problem is the openers are not sufficiently covering up for the out of form players by scoring the big runs, something like Hussey did with his 195 at Brisbane. If the openers had played that kind of innings at Adelaide score would have been 0-0.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    I just totally disagree with your premise that you need to convert more to maintain a high average. Plenty of top players have maintained high averages over their entire careers despite having relatively poor conversion rates. Some players just score differently to others. Also, whose to say if Watson is even in 'good form' at the moment. He might well average 90+ next year. Just because he has been getting starts and getting out doesn't mean he is 'wasting his good form'. Maybe him getting out is due to him not being in very good form. Either case is possible.
    Can you name 5 top order batsmen in this history of cricket who have a 45+ average and a conversion rate of less than 20%?

    Regarding, Watson's form I've replied above. If you really believe Watson is in poor form and will peak at 90+ the discussion is futile.


  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hit Wicket View Post
    When I was giving the 65/50 example numbers, I had more in mind the longer periods of form which are usually discussed for batsmen like a run of at least 2-3 years or 25-30 tests.

    But your numbers illustrate my point further. A top class batsman in top form over 1 year with 7-8 tests would average even 75-80+.

    And this year his average has been markedly lower - 42, with the same conversion rate illustrating my point that he has got out cheaply more often this year than last. Unless, he can start converting starts the 40-45 range is where he will end up ultimately because of the simple fact that in real life he will not get as many starts in poor form as he was when he was in top form.
    Chanderpaul scored 1 hundred in his first 27 tests and averaged 42, and 2 in his first 51 whilst averaging similarly

    It's not ideal but I'm not so sure that it's worse than a player like Cook who converts many of his starts but is prone to long periods where he cant buy a run because his technique stinks

    Watto would be the least of our problems IF Ponting, Katich and Katich werent underperforming

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hit Wicket View Post
    Can you name 5 top order batsmen in this history of cricket who have a 45+ average and a conversion rate of less than 20%?

    Regarding, Watson's form I've replied above. If you really believe Watson is in poor form and will peak at 90+ the discussion is futile.
    It doesn't make sense to use 20%, because Watson's 100/50 ratio simply won't stay at that. He is early in his career as an opener.

    Chanderpaul, 48.98, 100/50 ratio 40%.
    Inzaman-ul-Haq, 49.60, 100/50 ratio 54%
    Viv Richards, 50.23, 100/50 ratio 53%
    Boycott, 47.72, 100/50 ratio 52%

    Etc.

    You can compare those batsmen who all average around 50, to others who average around 50 and have better 100/50 ratios

    E.g. Hayden, 50.73, 100/50 ratio of over 100%.

    Hence, different batsmen can still maintain high averages without the same 100/50 ratios.
    Last edited by Ruckus; 08-12-2010 at 12:50 AM.

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    You can't have a conversion rate over 100%. This is why I reckon the 50s stats are wrong, it should be for 50+ scores and not 50-100.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by TumTum View Post
    You can't have a conversion rate over 100%. This is why I reckon the 50s stats are wrong, it should be for 50+ scores and not 50-100.
    Yeah that's true actually. Why are they called conversion rates then, when it is really just a ratio of 50's to 100's?

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    Quote Originally Posted by social View Post
    Chanderpaul scored 1 hundred in his first 27 tests and averaged 42, and 2 in his first 51 whilst averaging similarly

    It's not ideal but I'm not so sure that it's worse than a player like Cook who converts many of his starts but is prone to long periods where he cant buy a run because his technique stinks

    Watto would be the least of our problems IF Ponting, Katich and Katich werent underperforming
    Chanderpaul was a 19 year old when he made his debut and played a lot of those innings at number 5/6 from where it is not that easy to convert into centuries.

    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    It doesn't make sense to use 20%, because Watson's conversion rate simply won't stay at that. He is early in his career as an opener.

    Chanderpaul, 48.98, conversion rate 40%.
    Inzaman-ul-Haq, 49.60, conversion rate 54%
    Viv Richards, 50.23, conversion rate 53%
    Boycott, 47.72, conversion rate 52%

    Etc.

    You can compare those batsmen who all average around 50, to others who average around 50 and have better conversion rates.

    E.g. Hayden, 50.73, conversion rate over 100%.

    Hence, different batsmen can still maintain high averages without the same conversion rates.
    Don't think anyone would be complaining if Watson had a 100/50 ratio of 40%+ as an opener. BTW, comparison to Chanderpaul, Inzamam, and Richards is not fair. They batted at 5/6 for significant portions of their careers.
    Last edited by Hit Wicket; 08-12-2010 at 12:06 AM.

  10. #100
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    Maybe Watson would play more longer innings if the bowling wasn't so crap and he has to bowl quite a lot. I am surprised that your all-rounder averaging 50 with the bat is your biggest problem. And conversion rates look a bit artificial, he did get that string of 90s which if the were a string of 101s we might not be having this debate.

    As for the thread title, I would blame The middle order, mainly Hussey (up until 2 weeks ago) and North, not assisted by Johnson's poor form at 8.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hit Wicket View Post
    Chanderpaul was a 19 year old when he made his debut and played a lot of those innings at number 5/6 from where it is not that easy to convert into centuries.



    Don't think anyone would be complaining if Watson had a 100/50 ratio of 40%+ as an opener. BTW, comparison to Chanderpaul, Inzamam, and Richards is not fair. They batted at 5/6 for significant portions of their careers.
    Use his very own batting partner then, Katich. Converstion 'rate' of 40%, yet still averages over 45.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    Use his very own batting partner then, Katich. Converstion 'rate' of 40%, yet still averages over 45.
    Sure. I don't see as many people complaining about Katich's conversion. In fact as opener he has 8 centuries and 17 half centuries, which is not bad at all.

    BTW, I am not implying that Watson should be made the fall guy or something. Just that he is not utilizing his good form. He will fall down to a 40 average opener once his good form runs out and he does not start playing the big innings.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    Yeah that's true actually. Why are they called conversion rates then, when it is really just a ratio of 50's to 100's?
    Cricket statisticians are poor at maths.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by TumTum View Post
    Cricket statisticians are poor at maths.
    Poo
    Last edited by Ruckus; 08-12-2010 at 12:59 AM. Reason: Edited for retarded maths

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    Quote Originally Posted by DeusEx View Post
    You just divide the 100/50 ratio by 2 to get the true % percentage rate. So Hayden's conversion rate is approx. 52%. So that means 52% of the time when he gets a 50 he will convert it into a hundred.
    You maths is poor as well

    Conversion Rate (%) = 100s / (100s + 50s) * 100

    Hayden's conversion rate is 50.85%
    Last edited by TumTum; 08-12-2010 at 12:58 AM.

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