Top 100 test bowlers countdown

[James]

It has kept the forum alive and I would strongly suggest you and @James to work together to see if this can be published on the main page. Crappy crapinfo as usual lifting ideas from us and using it for themselves.

Thanks for the suggestion hb

100% open to that if DOG is interested - I'll reach out to him via private message.

 

[Two short legs]

Super effort again, DoG. Robust and elegant methodology, well-researched, well-articulated. Crucially ultimately included bowlers from every era, country and style. The number of significant individual movements up and down between 2018 and 2026 shows how sensitive rankings are to weighting tweaking. And how it is impossible to separate genuine champions from different eras- you could throw a blanket over those ranked between 50th and 100th- 51 bowlers separated by just 50 points (662 up to 712 ie all within %7.5 of each other).

 

[L Trumper]

Great effort @Days of Grace

One question on Imran, when calculating his career longevity points did you exclude the tests he was selected and played just as a batter ? There's stretch of around 2 years I think he didn't bowl.

 

[subshakerz]

Great effort @Days of Grace

One question on Imran, when calculating his career longevity points did you exclude the tests he was selected and played just as a batter ? There's stretch of around 2 years I think he didn't bowl.

Only two tests in 85 in Australia I think and then end career

 

[Days of Grace]

Thanks again for the great feedback and thoughts, everyone. I am always humbled by how much discussion my countdowns generate.

There have been a few queries about Glenn McGrath's adjusted average which I want to address, because I was also somewhat taken aback with his adjusted average.

Here is a decade breakdown of adjusted averages for notable bowlers:

1990s:

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	27.05	26.86	31.89
GD McGrath	22.42	23.77	30.30
CEL Ambrose	20.14	20.19	32.26
SK Warne	25.90	26.43	31.03
AA Donald	21.66	22.17	31.30
Waqar Younis	21.71	22.77	31.22
Wasim Akram	21.45	22.17	31.61

Of the major bowlers from 1990s, McGrath gets the largest increase in average. This is probably due to him playing many matches against the weak batting lineups of England and the West Indies and not having to bowl against his own team. Ambrose's adjusted average is almost identical to his original average due to the fact that he played 4 series against Australia in that decade, who were by far the strongest batting lineup. Muralitharan's average being adjusted down is mainly due to being in a relatively weak bowling attack who conceded more runs per wicket compared to the likes of Australia, West Indies, and Pakistan.


2000s

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	20.88	20.38	32.65
DW Steyn	23.71	22.15	34.54
GD McGrath	20.97	20.56	32.42
SK Warne	25.17	23.89	33.68

This chart explains quite neatly how quality of opposition has a big effect on adjusted averages. Dale Steyn played against the toughest opposition batting lineups and his average is adjusted down by 1.6. McGrath's average on the other hand only has a small decrease, reflecting that even though the pitches were tougher, he still didn't need to bowl to his own teammates.

What is the most interesting is the quite sizable difference in opposition average between McGrath and Warne, even though they were teammates.

2000s matches by opponent

Opposition	McGrath	Warne
Bangladesh	2	2
England	17	18
India	7	6
New Zealand	11	11
Pakistan	6	6
South Africa	9	12
Sri Lanka	2	5
West Indies	10	3
Zimbabwe	0	0

Here we have the answer: Warne played more matches against the toughest batting lineup besides Australia, and McGrath played a lot more matches against one of the weakest lineups.

* The RPW for each opposition for each series is calculated by their RPW record the the 5 years leading up to and include the year in which the series takes place, with more weight given to more recent years. The match RPW (with more weight given to the innings in which a bowling performance occurs) is then added to the opposition RPW (at a ratio of 4:1 in favor of opposition RPW) to produce the final figure which is then divided by 32 (the historical RPW since 1877). This produces the adjustment for each bowling performance in terms of runs conceded.

 

[smash84]

Just read through the thread. Amazing work @Days of Grace . i have been away from cricketweb a fair bit but this thread was so refereshing and took me back to the good ole days.

Ankit tagging subz and kyear2 was hilarious.

 

[sayon basak]

@Days of Grace excellent effort, no doubt. Cannot be more impressed at how much time and effort it must have taken. Very good top 100 as well.

Btw, can you provide the top 10/15 all rounders by your methodology? (maybe by multiplying the batting and bowling ratings)

 

[DCH]

Thanks again for the great feedback and thoughts, everyone. I am always humbled by how much discussion my countdowns generate.

There have been a few queries about Glenn McGrath's adjusted average which I want to address, because I was also somewhat taken aback with his adjusted average.

Here is a decade breakdown of adjusted averages for notable bowlers:

1990s:

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	27.05	26.86	31.89
GD McGrath	22.42	23.77	30.30
CEL Ambrose	20.14	20.19	32.26
SK Warne	25.90	26.43	31.03
AA Donald	21.66	22.17	31.30
Waqar Younis	21.71	22.77	31.22
Wasim Akram	21.45	22.17	31.61

Of the major bowlers from 1990s, McGrath gets the largest increase in average. This is probably due to him playing many matches against the weak batting lineups of England and the West Indies and not having to bowl against his own team. Ambrose's adjusted average is almost identical to his original average due to the fact that he played 4 series against Australia in that decade, who were by far the strongest batting lineup. Muralitharan's average being adjusted down is mainly due to being in a relatively weak bowling attack who conceded more runs per wicket compared to the likes of Australia, West Indies, and Pakistan.


2000s

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	20.88	20.38	32.65
DW Steyn	23.71	22.15	34.54
GD McGrath	20.97	20.56	32.42
SK Warne	25.17	23.89	33.68

This chart explains quite neatly how quality of opposition has a big effect on adjusted averages. Dale Steyn played against the toughest opposition batting lineups and his average is adjusted down by 1.6. McGrath's average on the other hand only has a small decrease, reflecting that even though the pitches were tougher, he still didn't need to bowl to his own teammates.

What is the most interesting is the quite sizable difference in opposition average between McGrath and Warne, even though they were teammates.

2000s matches by opponent

Opposition	McGrath	Warne
Bangladesh	2	2
England	17	18
India	7	6
New Zealand	11	11
Pakistan	6	6
South Africa	9	12
Sri Lanka	2	5
West Indies	10	3
Zimbabwe	0	0

Here we have the answer: Warne played more matches against the toughest batting lineup besides Australia, and McGrath played a lot more matches against one of the weakest lineups.

* The RPW for each opposition for each series is calculated by their RPW record the the 5 years leading up to and include the year in which the series takes place, with more weight given to more recent years. The match RPW (with more weight given to the innings in which a bowling performance occurs) is then added to the opposition RPW (at a ratio of 4:1 in favor of opposition RPW) to produce the final figure which is then divided by 32 (the historical RPW since 1877). This produces the adjustment for each bowling performance in terms of runs conceded.

Around 2016 Charles Davis has posted head-to-head figures for all bowlers when they were bowling to batsmen whose career averages were over 45. (Qualification: 40 dismissals of top-ranked batsmen )

Bowler	RC​	W​	Av​
GD McGrath	2198​	88​	25.0​
CEL Ambrose	1239​	49​	25.3​
Wasim Akram	1232​	40​	30.8​
SCJ Broad	3176​	102​	31.1​
JA Snow	1503​	47​	32.0​
DW Steyn	2799​	86​	32.5​
FS Trueman	2286​	70​	32.7​
SM Pollock	2214​	66​	33.5​
AV Bedser	2531​	75​	33.7​
Shoaib Akhtar	1423​	42​	33.9​
PM Siddle	2349​	67​	35.1​
WW Hall	1476​	41​	36.0​
Imran Khan	1544​	42​	36.8​
WJ O'Reilly	1905​	51​	37.4​
RR Lindwall	1573​	42​	37.5​

 

[Victor Ian]

Siddle being in that company is bananas

 

[subshakerz]

Thanks again for the great feedback and thoughts, everyone. I am always humbled by how much discussion my countdowns generate.

There have been a few queries about Glenn McGrath's adjusted average which I want to address, because I was also somewhat taken aback with his adjusted average.

Here is a decade breakdown of adjusted averages for notable bowlers:

1990s:

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	27.05	26.86	31.89
GD McGrath	22.42	23.77	30.30
CEL Ambrose	20.14	20.19	32.26
SK Warne	25.90	26.43	31.03
AA Donald	21.66	22.17	31.30
Waqar Younis	21.71	22.77	31.22
Wasim Akram	21.45	22.17	31.61

Of the major bowlers from 1990s, McGrath gets the largest increase in average. This is probably due to him playing many matches against the weak batting lineups of England and the West Indies and not having to bowl against his own team. Ambrose's adjusted average is almost identical to his original average due to the fact that he played 4 series against Australia in that decade, who were by far the strongest batting lineup. Muralitharan's average being adjusted down is mainly due to being in a relatively weak bowling attack who conceded more runs per wicket compared to the likes of Australia, West Indies, and Pakistan.


2000s

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	20.88	20.38	32.65
DW Steyn	23.71	22.15	34.54
GD McGrath	20.97	20.56	32.42
SK Warne	25.17	23.89	33.68

This chart explains quite neatly how quality of opposition has a big effect on adjusted averages. Dale Steyn played against the toughest opposition batting lineups and his average is adjusted down by 1.6. McGrath's average on the other hand only has a small decrease, reflecting that even though the pitches were tougher, he still didn't need to bowl to his own teammates.

What is the most interesting is the quite sizable difference in opposition average between McGrath and Warne, even though they were teammates.

2000s matches by opponent

Opposition	McGrath	Warne
Bangladesh	2	2
England	17	18
India	7	6
New Zealand	11	11
Pakistan	6	6
South Africa	9	12
Sri Lanka	2	5
West Indies	10	3
Zimbabwe	0	0

Here we have the answer: Warne played more matches against the toughest batting lineup besides Australia, and McGrath played a lot more matches against one of the weakest lineups.

* The RPW for each opposition for each series is calculated by their RPW record the the 5 years leading up to and include the year in which the series takes place, with more weight given to more recent years. The match RPW (with more weight given to the innings in which a bowling performance occurs) is then added to the opposition RPW (at a ratio of 4:1 in favor of opposition RPW) to produce the final figure which is then divided by 32 (the historical RPW since 1877). This produces the adjustment for each bowling performance in terms of runs conceded.

Thanks for sharing. Interesting exercise.

 

[Red_Ink_Squid]

Thanks again for the great feedback and thoughts, everyone. I am always humbled by how much discussion my countdowns generate.

There have been a few queries about Glenn McGrath's adjusted average which I want to address, because I was also somewhat taken aback with his adjusted average.

Here is a decade breakdown of adjusted averages for notable bowlers:

1990s:

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	27.05	26.86	31.89
GD McGrath	22.42	23.77	30.30
CEL Ambrose	20.14	20.19	32.26
SK Warne	25.90	26.43	31.03
AA Donald	21.66	22.17	31.30
Waqar Younis	21.71	22.77	31.22
Wasim Akram	21.45	22.17	31.61

Of the major bowlers from 1990s, McGrath gets the largest increase in average. This is probably due to him playing many matches against the weak batting lineups of England and the West Indies and not having to bowl against his own team. Ambrose's adjusted average is almost identical to his original average due to the fact that he played 4 series against Australia in that decade, who were by far the strongest batting lineup. Muralitharan's average being adjusted down is mainly due to being in a relatively weak bowling attack who conceded more runs per wicket compared to the likes of Australia, West Indies, and Pakistan.


2000s

	Original average	Adjusted average	Opposition average
M Muralitharan	20.88	20.38	32.65
DW Steyn	23.71	22.15	34.54
GD McGrath	20.97	20.56	32.42
SK Warne	25.17	23.89	33.68

This chart explains quite neatly how quality of opposition has a big effect on adjusted averages. Dale Steyn played against the toughest opposition batting lineups and his average is adjusted down by 1.6. McGrath's average on the other hand only has a small decrease, reflecting that even though the pitches were tougher, he still didn't need to bowl to his own teammates.

What is the most interesting is the quite sizable difference in opposition average between McGrath and Warne, even though they were teammates.

2000s matches by opponent

Opposition	McGrath	Warne
Bangladesh	2	2
England	17	18
India	7	6
New Zealand	11	11
Pakistan	6	6
South Africa	9	12
Sri Lanka	2	5
West Indies	10	3
Zimbabwe	0	0

Here we have the answer: Warne played more matches against the toughest batting lineup besides Australia, and McGrath played a lot more matches against one of the weakest lineups.

* The RPW for each opposition for each series is calculated by their RPW record the the 5 years leading up to and include the year in which the series takes place, with more weight given to more recent years. The match RPW (with more weight given to the innings in which a bowling performance occurs) is then added to the opposition RPW (at a ratio of 4:1 in favor of opposition RPW) to produce the final figure which is then divided by 32 (the historical RPW since 1877). This produces the adjustment for each bowling performance in terms of runs conceded.

A-ha! So clearly what this shows is that McGrath was so good that teams that had to play against him regularly ended up with their batting averages decimated.

(Genuinely, this is an interesting breakdown, thank you!)

 

[Coronis]

Siddle being in that company is bananas

This Pete is bananas, B A N A N A S.

 

[Burgey]

Apologies. I hope Migara is still with us. Your real no.1.

No.1

Muttiah Muralitharan (Sri Lanka) 964

View attachment 53846

2018 edition: rank 1

Career: 1992-2010, 795 wickets (rank 1)

Overall average / Wickets per innings / Strike-rate (228 inns): 22.21 (22.67) / 3.49 / 55.83 (54.99) (rank 2)
Peak average / Wickets per innings / Strike-rate (2001-2007; 81 inns): 17.20 / 3.96 / 46.96 (rank 2)
Non-home average / Wickets per innings / Strike-rate (94 inns): 26.87 / 3.21 / 63.04 (rank 18)
Top opposition average / Wickets per innings / Strike-rate (113 inns): 23.91 / 3.35 / 59.24 (rank 3)

Is it just me or does that arm look like a >15 degree bend?

 

[ashley bach]

@Migara to answer

 

[NZTailender]

Great stuff DoG

 

[Ali TT]

Is it just me or does that arm look like a >15 degree bend?

Wild first post from the new guy

 

[howitzer]

Is it just me or does that arm look like a >15 degree bend?

When was the last time @TheJediBrah used his trusty protractor?

 

[bagapath]

Apologies if I haven't provided much, if any, commentary. I'm now right in the middle of the university semester so I've only had time at night to post each player. But I'm glad I finished it before test cricket kicks off again. As an aside, Mohammad Abbas has climbed to no.90 and Taijul Islam is not too far away from becoming to first Bangladesh bowler to crack the top 100.

		Career points	Overall points	Peak points	Non-home points	Top opposition points	Total points
1​	M Muralitharan	130​	485​	129​	105​	114​	964​
2​	SF Barnes	55​	494​	121​	125​	106​	901​
3​	Sir RJ Hadlee	90​	462​	124​	119​	99​	894​
4​	Imran Khan	93​	444​	136​	100​	110​	882​
5​	DW Steyn	86​	454​	112​	108​	115​	875​
6​	MD Marshall	74​	456​	114​	109​	110​	863​
7​	GD McGrath	96​	428​	104​	112​	104​	845​
8​	CEL Ambrose	75​	436​	111​	111​	104​	836​
9​	SK Warne	113​	407​	101​	106​	106​	832​
10​	DK Lillee	72​	435​	104​	104​	109​	824​
11​	K Rabada	63​	443​	103​	98​	116​	823​
12​	JJ Bumrah	44​	450​	104​	113​	108​	820​
13​	AA Donald	62​	439​	105​	106​	107​	820​
14​	WJ O'Reilly	53​	431​	105​	117​	111​	816​
15​	J Garner	54​	438​	98​	113​	106​	810​
16​	Waqar Younis	76​	415​	121​	96​	99​	807​
17​	PJ Cummins	70​	427​	104​	98​	105​	804​
18​	CV Grimmett	53​	438​	103​	113​	96​	804​
19​	R Ashwin	91​	425​	101​	84​	93​	795​
20​	Wasim Akram	88​	402​	107​	99​	95​	791​
21​	AK Davidson	47​	429​	106​	100​	108​	790​
22​	FS Trueman	67​	420​	100​	93​	105​	785​
23​	CA Walsh	99​	392​	94​	96​	104​	784​
24​	JM Anderson	128​	382​	98​	86​	89​	783​
25​	AV Bedser	50​	426​	109​	86​	107​	778​
26​	JC Laker	50​	425​	111​	81​	106​	773​
27​	A Kumble	112​	385​	96​	82​	93​	769​
28​	SM Pollock	79​	403​	100​	94​	92​	768​
29​	Shoaib Akhtar	46​	406​	110​	102​	92​	756​
30​	HMRKB Herath	95​	389​	97​	77​	98​	755​
31​	RR Lindwall	61​	391​	102​	96​	104​	753​
32​	MA Holding	58​	405​	101​	102​	86​	752​
33​	VD Philander	48​	412​	97​	84​	107​	748​
34​	JA Snow	51​	385​	93​	114​	104​	748​
35​	IR Bishop	42​	390​	105​	103​	100​	739​
36​	GA Lohmann	39​	388​	96​	123​	92​	739​
37​	JR Hazlewood	61​	392​	97​	89​	99​	737​
38​	Mohammad Asif	26​	404​	103​	117​	81​	731​
39​	SCJ Broad	105​	365​	90​	81​	88​	730​
40​	MA Starc	85​	377​	93​	89​	84​	728​
41​	MG Johnson	55​	391​	94​	86​	94​	720​
42​	DL Underwood	73​	367​	107​	87​	85​	719​
43​	HJ Tayfield	48​	380​	99​	94​	99​	719​
44​	IT Botham	80​	370​	94​	87​	87​	719​
45​	ARC Fraser	43​	388​	89​	99​	99​	718​
46​	RA Jadeja	71​	380​	98​	67​	102​	718​
47​	Fazal Mahmood	42​	382​	101​	86​	106​	717​
48​	BS Chandrasekhar	65​	375​	93​	88​	94​	716​
49​	RGD Willis	69​	380​	88​	84​	91​	713​
50​	M Jansen	22​	393​	96​	91​	110​	712​
51​	D Gough	49​	383​	88​	98​	92​	710​
52​	KR Miller	45​	381​	91​	92​	99​	709​
53​	AME Roberts	46​	388​	92​	101​	81​	708​
54​	Saeed Ajmal	34​	386​	89​	100​	100​	708​
55​	PM Pollock	37​	375​	90​	106​	100​	708​
56​	LR Gibbs	80​	352​	100​	87​	88​	707​
57​	WW Hall	50​	384​	95​	93​	85​	707​
58​	WA Johnston	39​	382​	99​	87​	100​	706​
59​	N Wagner	60​	366​	93​	87​	100​	706​
60​	JR Thomson	56​	377​	94​	78​	100​	705​
61​	NM Lyon	97​	347​	85​	91​	84​	703​
62​	N Kapil Dev	88​	346​	92​	83​	95​	703​
63​	RJ Harris	27​	397​	93​	104​	80​	701​
64​	CJ McDermott	63​	370​	97​	83​	85​	698​
65​	MW Tate	46​	373​	92​	91​	94​	697​
66​	M Morkel	65​	368​	85​	89​	89​	696​
67​	TA Boult	63​	373​	86​	86​	89​	696​
68​	H Trumble	52​	362​	93​	86​	100​	693​
69​	TM Alderman	45​	368​	92​	99​	88​	692​
70​	CEH Croft	28​	383​	90​	80​	112​	692​
71​	CTB Turner	33​	376​	97​	75​	112​	692​
72​	Harbhajan Singh	88​	348​	90​	71​	93​	691​
73​	GD McKenzie	53​	365​	92​	91​	88​	689​
74​	M Ntini	71​	364​	93​	72​	90​	689​
75​	AR Caddick	52​	366​	88​	91​	86​	683​
76​	SR Clark	20​	385​	91​	90​	94​	680​
77​	CL Cairns	63​	355​	86​	89​	85​	678​
78​	FH Tyson	23​	360​	94​	101​	100​	678​
79​	HH Streak	55​	356​	96​	84​	87​	677​
80​	JN Gillespie	54​	362​	84​	87​	89​	677​
81​	GP Swann	42​	374​	82​	95​	84​	677​
82​	MJ Hoggard	48​	357​	82​	91​	99​	676​
83​	MG Hughes	47​	361​	86​	83​	98​	675​
84​	JB Statham	64​	356​	90​	84​	81​	674​
85​	C Blythe	35​	380​	94​	79​	84​	673​
86​	BS Bedi	63​	356​	92​	80​	82​	673​
87​	R Benaud	58​	352​	92​	92​	78​	672​
88​	Yasir Shah	48​	370​	88​	95​	72​	672​
89​	KAJ Roach	73​	356​	89​	69​	84​	672​
90​	Mohammad Abbas	36​	359​	87​	97​	91​	671​
91​	J Briggs	52​	356​	91​	82​	89​	670​
92​	TG Southee	83​	336​	96​	79​	74​	669​
93​	MJ Henry	42​	356​	98​	81​	91​	668​
94​	NAT Adcock	36​	363​	91​	81​	96​	667​
95​	BA Reid	32​	396​	95​	60​	82​	665​
96​	BR Taylor	34​	364​	91​	105​	69​	664​
97​	H Verity	38​	363​	90​	86​	87​	663​
98​	R Peel	43​	348​	87​	85​	100​	663​
99​	SCG MacGill	48​	355​	86​	80​	93​	663​
100​	GF Lawson	44​	358​	82​	82​	96​	662​

amazing work. thanks for your efforts DOG

 

[Burgey]

DoGgo, awesome stuff as always. One of the great contributors.

 

[ankitj]

So from those just looking at overall quality without career points the top 20 would look like..

Barnes 846
Muralitharan 834
Hadlee 804
Imran 789
Steyn 789
Marshall 789
Bumrah 776
O’Reilly 763
Ambrose 761
Rabada 760
Donald 758
Garner 754
Lillee 752
Grimmett 751
McGrath 749
Davidson 743
Cummins 734
Waqar 731
Bedser 728
Laker 723

Davidson, Bedser and Laker jump into the 20, whilst Warne, Ashwin and Wasim would drop out, Warne dropping a whole 12 spots.

As expected, Murali and Barnes do a swap. Imran, Steyn and Marshall all squeeze together. Bumrah, O’Reilly and Rabada come into the 10 for McGrath, Warne and Lillee.

Donald's numbers are quite impressive. Few days back I said that his record maybe slightly light compared to other ATGs. I'm again forced to reconsider my view on that.