Days of Grace
International Captain
Hello everyone,
After the great response to the top 100 test batsmen countdown, I’m pleased to present my updated ranking of the top 100 test bowlers of all-time.
A brief explanation of the methodology:
The goal of the system is to measure multi-dimensional career greatness, not just raw averages.
All players receive a rating, where 1000 represents the gold standard of Test bowling excellence and scores below 1000 reflect proportional distance from that benchmark.
All innings bowling performances by each bowler (i.e. runs conceded and balls bowled) are adjusted by:
Strength of opposition using the batting averages of test teams based on the 5 years up to and including the year in which the bowling performance occurred, with greater weight placed on more recent years.
Match conditions with more weight placed on the actual innings in which the bowling performance occurred.
Rating Structure:
Each bowler’s career rating is composed of five criteria:
1. Career Volume – 12.5%
Total wickets 50%
Years active 50%
2. Overall Career Record – 50%
3. Peak Performance – 12.5% (A bowler’s best performance over a period of at least 5 years and at least 40 innings)
4. Non-Home Record – 12.5%
5. Record vs Top Opposition – 12.5% (Top opposition is represented by the top ranked teams in each era based on my own test team ratings from 1877).
Top opposition are calculated as followed:
1877-1939: Top two teams (Australia and England)
1946-1992: Top 3 teams
1993-present day (South Africa entered the ratings again from 1993): Top 4 teams
Within each of the criteria 2-5:
Adjusted bowling Average: weighting of 6
Wickets per Innings: weighting of 3
Adjusted strike Rate: weighting of 1
* Wickets per innings is left unadjusted, as team context effects are indirectly captured by the other two metrics and additional correction would add complexity without necessarily improving accuracy.
Qualification: 25 career wickets.
Bowlers with less than 80 innings across their overall career and less than 40 innings in either peak performance, non-home record or record vs top opposition lose points.
Benchmarks:
Benchmarks are based on the historical average of top-10 performers in each category, refined using my own “eye test” and intuition.
Key benchmarks:
Career wickets: 600
Career length: 25 years
Overall Career, Non-home, and Top opposition
Average: 20
Wickets per innings: 3
Strike rate: 45
Peak (Minimum 5 years, 40 innings)
Average: 17.5
Runs per innings: 3.5
Strike rate: 40
These benchmarks represent the gold standard of sustained Test bowling excellence. In other words, if a bowler has the exactly the same values as the benchmarks (and if they have bowled in 80 innings or more), then their final rating will be 1000.
I welcome thoughtful discussion and critique and of course hot takes and banter. The aim of this project is not to declare absolute truth (no statistical analysis can hope to do that), but to offer a framework for comparing the greatest Test bowlers in history across eras.
I hope you enjoy the rankings. This is a perfect time to do this thread since there is no test cricket until May 27.
After the great response to the top 100 test batsmen countdown, I’m pleased to present my updated ranking of the top 100 test bowlers of all-time.
A brief explanation of the methodology:
The goal of the system is to measure multi-dimensional career greatness, not just raw averages.
All players receive a rating, where 1000 represents the gold standard of Test bowling excellence and scores below 1000 reflect proportional distance from that benchmark.
All innings bowling performances by each bowler (i.e. runs conceded and balls bowled) are adjusted by:
Strength of opposition using the batting averages of test teams based on the 5 years up to and including the year in which the bowling performance occurred, with greater weight placed on more recent years.
Match conditions with more weight placed on the actual innings in which the bowling performance occurred.
Rating Structure:
Each bowler’s career rating is composed of five criteria:
1. Career Volume – 12.5%
Total wickets 50%
Years active 50%
2. Overall Career Record – 50%
3. Peak Performance – 12.5% (A bowler’s best performance over a period of at least 5 years and at least 40 innings)
4. Non-Home Record – 12.5%
5. Record vs Top Opposition – 12.5% (Top opposition is represented by the top ranked teams in each era based on my own test team ratings from 1877).
Top opposition are calculated as followed:
1877-1939: Top two teams (Australia and England)
1946-1992: Top 3 teams
1993-present day (South Africa entered the ratings again from 1993): Top 4 teams
Within each of the criteria 2-5:
Adjusted bowling Average: weighting of 6
Wickets per Innings: weighting of 3
Adjusted strike Rate: weighting of 1
* Wickets per innings is left unadjusted, as team context effects are indirectly captured by the other two metrics and additional correction would add complexity without necessarily improving accuracy.
Qualification: 25 career wickets.
Bowlers with less than 80 innings across their overall career and less than 40 innings in either peak performance, non-home record or record vs top opposition lose points.
Benchmarks:
Benchmarks are based on the historical average of top-10 performers in each category, refined using my own “eye test” and intuition.
Key benchmarks:
Career wickets: 600
Career length: 25 years
Overall Career, Non-home, and Top opposition
Average: 20
Wickets per innings: 3
Strike rate: 45
Peak (Minimum 5 years, 40 innings)
Average: 17.5
Runs per innings: 3.5
Strike rate: 40
These benchmarks represent the gold standard of sustained Test bowling excellence. In other words, if a bowler has the exactly the same values as the benchmarks (and if they have bowled in 80 innings or more), then their final rating will be 1000.
I welcome thoughtful discussion and critique and of course hot takes and banter. The aim of this project is not to declare absolute truth (no statistical analysis can hope to do that), but to offer a framework for comparing the greatest Test bowlers in history across eras.
I hope you enjoy the rankings. This is a perfect time to do this thread since there is no test cricket until May 27.
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