The decline of Australia after the 2007 world cup

[Richard]

Test crowds in India always seem to be pretty good whenever I watch...
Not the sort of crowds you get in ODIs, no, but still "small" crowds of 25,000 don't exactly do much damage...
Anyway, whenever you get talking to Indians on Messenger Boards like this, most seem to care every bit as much about Test-cricket as ODIs, if not even more. It's a case of you don't have to go to the matches to follow or treasure the thing.
I can't really see Tendulkar playing in WC2011, even if he did retire from Tests on Monday.
The point about "needless" ODIs was that if you're playing in a ODI without being a prospect for the next World Cup, you're wasting everyone's time. There's no such thing as a needless Test, except those against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh.

 

[SA]

Whereas after WC2003 the losses were smaller: Knight, Caddick, Stewart, Hussain, Srinath, Saeed Anwar, Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, Donald, Rhodes, Kirsten, Tillikeratne, de Silva, Hooper, Campbell, Andy Flower, Guy Whittall. Though there were players who we've lost in the meantime... Bevan, Lehmann, Grant Flower, Jacobs, Klusener, Cairns, and with hindsight it'd have been much better for their teams if they'd retired after the Cup. Although Bevan's being dropped was stupid.

How on earth were the retirements of Andy Flower,Allan Donald,Wasim Akram,Waqar Younis,Saeed Anwar "small losses"?

 

[silentstriker]

How on earth were the retirements of Andy Flower,Allan Donald,Wasim Akram,Waqar Younis,Saeed Anwar "small losses"?

Compared to 2007's retiring class of world class all time greats...they are. Not that the list above doesn't include all time greats but you really cant match the 2007 list.

India alone is going to have a huge batting drain.


But I guess its good that we have our world class pace bowling to fall back on.

 

[silentstriker]

Test crowds in India always seem to be pretty good whenever I watch...
Not the sort of crowds you get in ODIs, no, but still "small" crowds of 25,000 don't exactly do much damage...
Anyway, whenever you get talking to Indians on Messenger Boards like this, most seem to care every bit as much about Test-cricket as ODIs, if not even more. It's a case of you don't have to go to the matches to follow or treasure the thing.
I can't really see Tendulkar playing in WC2011, even if he did retire from Tests on Monday.
The point about "needless" ODIs was that if you're playing in a ODI without being a prospect for the next World Cup, you're wasting everyone's time. There's no such thing as a needless Test, except those against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh.

That's a good point, but people on boards tend to me cricket aficionados. The 'casual fan' doesn't come on boards like this. We are not a good representative sample of the population.

The crowds are OK at test matches, but they are not enough I think to keep it going. I hope we don't see India doing a reverse-Zimbabwe and self-canceling their Test status in twenty years

 

[steds]

How will SL's attack look without Vaas and Murali?

*****.

 

[marc71178]

Who knows, if he limits himself to ODI's...he might make the 2011 cup. He will be 33 when WC starts, so he will be 37 in 2011. Probably, thats too old but its happened before (Lara will be 37 in 2007, for example).

The thing to remember though is the age at debut - just because he's 32-33 doesn't mean he's the equivalent of most 32-33 year olds in the game.

 

[silentstriker]

The thing to remember though is the age at debut - just because he's 32-33 doesn't mean he's the equivalent of most 32-33 year olds in the game.

Yes, this is true. Sixteen years of international cricket does tend to take a toll on your body. But Tendulkar made his debut when I was five years old....I can't really imagine an Indian team without Tendulkar.

Seriously, I will cry the day he retires. I haven't cried since I was about thirteen, not even if a family member dies, but I won't be able to help myself when he retires.

 

[Richard]

How on earth were the retirements of Andy Flower,Allan Donald,Wasim Akram,Waqar Younis,Saeed Anwar "small losses"?

The point was that the number of players retiring was smaller than the number who are likely or near-certain to after WC2007.

 

[Richard]

That's a good point, but people on boards tend to me cricket aficionados. The 'casual fan' doesn't come on boards like this. We are not a good representative sample of the population.

The crowds are OK at test matches, but they are not enough I think to keep it going. I hope we don't see India doing a reverse-Zimbabwe and self-canceling their Test status in twenty years

That would only happen if the players no longer wanted to play it.
As long as the eyeballs stay on the ODIs and thereby bring-in the money, it will be possible to lay-on Tests.
I doubt the game will lose any Test-playing nation just because they don't want to play.

 

[Richard]

Yes, this is true. Sixteen years of international cricket does tend to take a toll on your body. But Tendulkar made his debut when I was five years old....I can't really imagine an Indian team without Tendulkar.

Seriously, I will cry the day he retires. I haven't cried since I was about thirteen, not even if a family member dies, but I won't be able to help myself when he retires.

It does indeed seem a strange prospect - I have no memory of Indian cricket pre-Tendulkar.

 

[adharcric]

Yes, this is true. Sixteen years of international cricket does tend to take a toll on your body. But Tendulkar made his debut when I was five years old....I can't really imagine an Indian team without Tendulkar.

Seriously, I will cry the day he retires. I haven't cried since I was about thirteen, not even if a family member dies, but I won't be able to help myself when he retires.

So will I. But I'll have tears of joy first if Sachin gets a world cup in 2007.

 

[silentstriker]

That would only happen if the players no longer wanted to play it.
As long as the eyeballs stay on the ODIs and thereby bring-in the money, it will be possible to lay-on Tests.
I doubt the game will lose any Test-playing nation just because they don't want to play.

But will the board want to keep scheduling them if they don't bring in any money? When they can schedule 15 ODI's in the same time as a five test series? Or maybe all tests series will be just two tests, not even three that they have now.


EDIT: I am not saying that this is a likely scenario, but I do think its a possibility.

 

[Richard]

That is only something we will know when we find-out.
I don't, though, think it's that likely, for the simple reason that there is still a huge feeling for the need to maintain the history and tradition of the game in India - that's apparent even without experiencing casual-fan attitudes.

 

[kvemuri]

So will I. But I'll have tears of joy first if Sachin gets a world cup in 2007.

That would be an awesome way to end a great career. I hope he does, he has done a lot for Indian cricket, carrying the burden and expectations of not only an entire team but an entire nation (especially in the 90s) is not at all an easy task, more than the game the expectations can take toll physically and mentally. That he has survived all that and much more is a testament to his grit and determination, winning a WC would fill that one gaping hole in his legacy.

 

[iamdavid]

I agree with India and Pakistan figuring more prominently after 2007...I've liked the look of the underage sides from both countries in recent years and the way Greg Chappell has handled things since he was appointed is a good sign...he seems more interested in the long-term fortunes of the team.

Australia obviously wont be the team they were but they will still be right up there, McGrath, Warne and Gilchrist are the sorts of players who appear once in a generation and no amount of talent scouting, youth development or analytical coaching will find succesors for them in the short term.
There is still talent aplenty floating about though, There are several young keepers around who could adequately fill Gilchrist's boots although noboddy's gonna have quite the same impact, Brad Haddin's batting has improved drastically over the past couple of season and he should slot in nicely....And long term I think the pace attack looks pretty sound, several young blokes at state level or close to it who are promising plenty and will hopefully be ready to make the step up in a couple of years.
Warne will be hardest to replace, I dont reckon Cameron White has what it takes to be the sole spinner at test level...he'll bowl well on the subcontinent and if his batting continues to improve he could push for a place on that strength but he would only present a shadow of the threat Warne did in Australian conditions.
Beau Casson is really talented he always looks capable of taking wickets but he sends down too many bad balls at the moment to be seriously considered, he would be ideal if he could tighten things up.

 

[BlackCap_Fan]

The basic fact of the matter is we will (or should) lose plenty of good players from ODIs after WC2007...
Gilchrist, McGrath, Martyn, Hayden if he makes it back to the squad, Gillespie if he makes it back to the squad, Ganguly if he makes it back to the squad, Dravid, Tendulkar, Astle, Fleming, Harris (there really is genuine hope that he might make it back to the squad), Bond, Inzamam-Ul-Haq, Mohammad Yousuf, Shoaib Akhtar, Gibbs, Pollock, Jayasuriya, Murali, Atapattu, Vaas, Lara, Chanderpaul and Dillon if he gets back into the squad.
Whereas after WC2003 the losses were smaller: Knight, Caddick, Stewart, Hussain, Srinath, Saeed Anwar, Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, Donald, Rhodes, Kirsten, Tillikeratne, de Silva, Hooper, Campbell, Andy Flower, Guy Whittall. Though there were players who we've lost in the meantime... Bevan, Lehmann, Grant Flower, Jacobs, Klusener, Cairns, and with hindsight it'd have been much better for their teams if they'd retired after the Cup. Although Bevan's being dropped was stupid.
But yeah... WC2007 should be a watershed, and obviously there'll always be World Cups in the future where loads of good players retire simualtaneously. Or certainly there should be.

What's this about Astle and Fleming retiring? I also doubt about Bond retiring, but we'll see how his back goes.

And I'm say I doubt we'll even see Harris at the world cup.

 

[Richard]

He needs to get back in pretty soon if so, indeed... and that'll require Franklin, Martin, Mills, Mason, Patel, Butler, Adams, Oram and Tuffey (all I'd guess are currently ahead of him in the pecking-order) to get belted pretty soon...
Can you really see any of Astle, Fleming or Bond making WC2011? Bond will be 35, Fleming 37 and Astle 40.
If they don't retire from ODIs immidiately after WC2007 it'll be IMO irresponsible and not a little selfish and short-sighted.

 

[Richard]

I agree with India and Pakistan figuring more prominently after 2007...I've liked the look of the underage sides from both countries in recent years and the way Greg Chappell has handled things since he was appointed is a good sign...he seems more interested in the long-term fortunes of the team.

Australia obviously wont be the team they were but they will still be right up there, McGrath, Warne and Gilchrist are the sorts of players who appear once in a generation and no amount of talent scouting, youth development or analytical coaching will find succesors for them in the short term.
There is still talent aplenty floating about though, There are several young keepers around who could adequately fill Gilchrist's boots although noboddy's gonna have quite the same impact, Brad Haddin's batting has improved drastically over the past couple of season and he should slot in nicely....And long term I think the pace attack looks pretty sound, several young blokes at state level or close to it who are promising plenty and will hopefully be ready to make the step up in a couple of years.
Warne will be hardest to replace, I dont reckon Cameron White has what it takes to be the sole spinner at test level...he'll bowl well on the subcontinent and if his batting continues to improve he could push for a place on that strength but he would only present a shadow of the threat Warne did in Australian conditions.
Beau Casson is really talented he always looks capable of taking wickets but he sends down too many bad balls at the moment to be seriously considered, he would be ideal if he could tighten things up.

Nice to see you again, Mr. Hoitink... another brief visit?

 

[BlackCap_Fan]

He needs to get back in pretty soon if so, indeed... and that'll require Franklin, Martin, Mills, Mason, Patel, Butler, Adams, Oram and Tuffey (all I'd guess are currently ahead of him in the pecking-order) to get belted pretty soon...
Can you really see any of Astle, Fleming or Bond making WC2011? Bond will be 35, Fleming 37 and Astle 40.
If they don't retire from ODIs immidiately after WC2007 it'll be IMO irresponsible and not a little selfish and short-sighted.

You're right. I didn't realise Bond and Astle were so old. Maybe, and that's a big maybe, Fleming could stay to 2011, but I doubt it.

Bond won't be around 'till 35, that's for sure.

 

[Richard]

Astle never seems like an "old" player. He could be a young 50-year-old. Bond, too, has played so little (and started relatively late) that it's easy to forget how old he is.
I'd like to think Fleming could make 2011, but in all honesty I think it's much less likely than more and I reckon he'd do best to give his successor as long as possible in the job before the Cup.