The Ashes won't be close

[Richard]

Vettori's a much better bowler than Giles. You obviously just look at statistics alone. Most people know that like Flintoff, Vettori's very average record doesn't tell the whole story.

No, most people can tell that Vettori and Giles are very, very, very similar bowlers.

 

[sledger]

Everyone seems to be speaking as if I've said otherwise.
That's just the point - Warne will be a threat come what may. So, maybe, the best chance might be to prepare turners and allow us to respond in kind.

hmmm an intresting theory that, that could backfire horribly though and warne could really rip through the england line up, then giles could pull up with a hamstring problem then it really would be curtains.

 

[Richard]

Clarke isn't anything special with the ball, but he is capable of troubling good batsmen on a turning wicket. He's actually quite accurace when be bowls around the wicket to right-handers, generally pitches it on a dime and if it turns it can be problematic. He didn't get his 6 for 9 or his wickets in New Zealand through pure luck. I can certainly see him finishing with 50 or more test wickets, similar to what Lehmann would have managed if he played more tests.

Clarke strikes me as one of those bowlers whose been in the right place at the right time so far - I've seen him bowl plenty and he's pretty poor. He may be a bit more accurate than some, but he's still easy to hammer if you want to.
He certainly got his 6-9 by being in the right place at the right time.

 

[Richard]

hmmm an intresting theory that, that could backfire horribly though and warne could really rip through the england line up, then giles could pull up with a hamstring problem then it really would be curtains.

Never know, we could always bring Croft out of retirement.
Indeed, it's a shame we've never got to try Croft and Giles together on a turner against Australia, because I can't help feeling they'd be knocked-over cheaply plenty.
Giles hasn't missed any Tests with injury so far in his career except The Ashes 2002\03 with the freak-accident broken-wrist, so I don't see that it'd be too much of a risk.
And as I say - I hardly think a turning pitch is going to make Warne significantly more dangerous than he'll be anyway.

 

[sledger]

Never know, we could always bring Croft out of retirement.
Indeed, it's a shame we've never got to try Croft and Giles together on a turner against Australia, because I can't help feeling they'd be knocked-over cheaply plenty.
Giles hasn't missed any Tests with injury so far in his career except The Ashes 2002\03 with the freak-accident broken-wrist, so I don't see that it'd be too much of a risk.
And as I say - I hardly think a turning pitch is going to make Warne significantly more dangerous than he'll be anyway.

a very intresting point that, very intresting indeed, once again i am inclined to agree with you, although i dont think the ECB will take that risk realistically.

 

[Richard]

I expect Harmison.

Anybody who watched the 02/03 Ashes would see Harmison was bowling a lot better towards the end of the series then when he was at the beginning.

The change in action brought him a lot more confidence and out went this 'homesickness' he has suffered from.

With all due respect, I did watch a lot of the Ashes last time around.

Yes, mate, so did I, remember?
The change in action, and being at home, didn't help him much in these innings (knock off the last one).
You can see a very clear demob-happy pattern in Harmison's career - he often turns a dire series into a merely poor one at the last; in The Ashes he took 3 for 300, then 6 for 155; at home to SA, he took 5 for 380 then 4 for 33; at home to WI, he took 5 for 378 then 12 for 124. Even in SA, his best figures were in the final innings.
Another very obvious pattern in Harmison's career is that his first 9 matches brought him 23 wickets at 42.95; his next 7 brought him 44 at 18.31; his next 9 have brought him 26 at 44.65.
Yes, true, you could be forgiven for thinking that his next 7 will bring huge bounties... interesting, hadn't noticed that one before... but I think not, personally.

 

[Richard]

a very intresting point that, very intresting indeed, once again i am inclined to agree with you, although i dont think the ECB will take that risk realistically.

Well, we're taking a risk just playing them. I genuinely believe our best chance would be to play on turners - Australia's seamers are miles better than ours.
But I don't for a minute expect The ECB to work on that philosophy.

 

[sledger]

Well, we're taking a risk just playing them. I genuinely believe our best chance would be to play on turners - Australia's seamers are miles better than ours.
But I don't for a minute expect The ECB to work on that philosophy.

perhaps not, would be rather un-orthodox if they did, not that it would do a great deal of good anyway, australia would probably just win all the same, might make the result closer but i doubt it would really change it.

 

[Richard]

It's the unorthodoxy that makes me almost certain it won't happen... even the turners we got here I was almost certain were simply accidents rather than wonderful planning.

 

[aussie]

Especially against a team like Australia with so many players weak against the turning ball, Giles will cause all sorts of problems on a turning pitch.

yes the aussies are weak againts the turning ball but they still manage to win series recently where the ball turns. Guys like Langer & Gilchrist have clear weaknesses againts spin especially Langer who only has one century in about 18 test in the sub-continent, while Gilchrist's weakness againts spin is covered up by his agressive nature which has brought him some success. Going back to the point i agree Giles could cause the Australians problems if conditions suit him during the ashes series but not that much

 

[Langeveldt]

you are English..cant escape that fact though...call yourself Langeveldt,go live out there,..even go adopt a saffie accent and slip a few Rand in your pocket, it dont matter..YOU ARE ENGLISH..bad luck mate ..why you would choose to support SA is beyond me

(only joshin' witchu )

Lets just say when I needed a role model on the cricket field, I couldn't find one in England.
The rest is history, how thats backfired though.. SA is tops for flying, and thats what I'll be there for.. I wish I was as passionate as I used to be about the cricket

I love England anyway.. Being English is something I see as an immense privelage, but its just not somewhere I'd like to be all the time.. I certainly won't go bad mouthing the place, unless its in the typical English manner expected of us

 

[Scallywag]

Well, we're taking a risk just playing them. I genuinely believe our best chance would be to play on turners - Australia's seamers are miles better than ours.
But I don't for a minute expect The ECB to work on that philosophy.

Australian spinners are miles better than yours too, maybe ECB looked at that.

 

[luckyeddie]

Australian spinners are miles better than yours too, maybe ECB looked at that.

Well, Shane is - miles better. Brad's a plonker (still better though).

So are the Australian seamers (better, that is, not necessarily plonkers); Australian batters too - so I doubt there's any type of pitch which gives England the edge.

I suggest that England's best chance is on a dry turner - but they'd need to get very lucky with the toss of the coin.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Well, we're taking a risk just playing them. I genuinely believe our best chance would be to play on turners - Australia's seamers are miles better than ours.
But I don't for a minute expect The ECB to work on that philosophy.

I don't see how. If Kumble, Harbhajan and Murali couldn't beat Australia on raging turners last year I can't see how Giles will, especially considering Warne will dominate and Australia can always call up Macgill. Who of quality do England have to back up Giles?

I think as far as pitches go the best thing England can do is prepare green seamers. Australia have some good players of seam bowling, but also some who might be a little suspect or at least unproven like Clarke. At leas then England's bowling strength will be catered to, and it should nullify Warne somewhat. I think Australia will win whatever the pitches are like, but I would predict a whitewash if the matches were played in India or Sri Lanka, whereas if they were played in the West Indies in 1984 I think England would have a better shot.

 

[chaminda_00]

Well england strength is the balance of their side, so they may as well produce pitches that offer some assitant to pace but is good to bat on once u get in. I think if they produce pitches that turn then there going to get smashed if they lose the toss, Warne or MacGill on a day five turner, goodbye england.

 

[chaminda_00]

I don't see how. If Kumble, Harbhajan and Murali couldn't beat Australia on raging turners last year I can't see how Giles will, especially considering Warne will dominate and Australia can always call up Macgill. Who of quality do England have to back up Giles?

I think as far as pitches go the best thing England can do is prepare green seamers. Australia have some good players of seam bowling, but also some who might be a little suspect or at least unproven like Clarke. At leas then England's bowling strength will be catered to, and it should nullify Warne somewhat. I think Australia will win whatever the pitches are like, but I would predict a whitewash if the matches were played in India or Sri Lanka, whereas if they were played in the West Indies in 1984 I think England would have a better shot.

For me their batting line is better then their pace attack, well more consistent. If they produce seaming tracks then McGarth and co will run through them. A balanced pitch that offer asstaince to pace and is good to bat on after u get in is the way to go.

 

[marc71178]

Well, Shane is - miles better. Brad's a plonker (still better though).

Hogg's not better!

Look at his record last season!

 

[telsor]

Interesting idea.

If I'm reading it right, the suggestion is not that England will win if they produce a turner, but that they're more likely to win on that sort of pitch than a 'standard' pitch. ( say 40% chance rather than a 30% chance ).

There is definately merit to the argument, although I think that an obvious turner would just make the Aussies play a second spinner which would swing the balance back to Aus.

Who is England's second spinner?

Of course, it's not certain who Aus will bring along, but both the most likely candidates ( MacGill and Cullen ) have had sensational first class seasons and you'd expect either to be a genuine threat, particularly on a turner.

 

[Deja moo]

I don't see how. If Kumble, Harbhajan and Murali couldn't beat Australia on raging turners last year I can't see how Giles will, especially considering Warne will dominate and Australia can always call up Macgill. Who of quality do England have to back up Giles?
.

Erm...they werent raging turners. Bangalore didnt offer much to the spinners, Nagpur was a green top. Chennai was typically true to nature and the only "raging turner" on offer was at Mumbai.

 

[chaminda_00]

Hogg's not better!

Look at his record last season!

Yeah but Hogg is nothing special in FC matches, he can't even get a game for WA in the Pura Milk Cup. For test seclections in terms of spin bowling Hauritz is in front of him and his know about 7th best spin bowler in Australia. Australia spin bowling ranks IMO:
1. Warne
2. MacGill
3. Cullen
4. White
5. Kerjza
6. Dorthey
7. Haurtiz
8. Hogg
9. Casson
10. Bailey