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The American Politics thread

Agent Nationaux

International Coach
Fusion, the article said that the maths is wrong if Obama loses any of the states that voted for Kerry and him. Can you confidently say that those states will still back him in 2012.
 

Fusion

Global Moderator
Yes he supported the anti union law, but the same night that the anti union law was defeated....so was the insurance mandate for Obama. It's a wash on that issue, at best. Obama's approval rating in Ohio is pretty bad (lower than his overall mid forties rating).

I don't see him winning Ohio at all.
There's a massive difference between not supporting the individual mandate and not supporting labor though. If you are part of a union, which plays a huge part in Ohio, the resentment towards Romney for attacking your livelihood would be much greater than an unpopular aspect of the health care law. I think the negative for Romney is far greater than for Obama in Ohio. Unless the local economy completely tanks, I just don’t see Obama losing to Mitt in Ohio.
 

Fusion

Global Moderator
Fusion, the article said that the maths is wrong if Obama loses any of the states that voted for Kerry and him. Can you confidently say that those states will still back him in 2012.
He has several paths to victory. He doesn’t have to win all of the same states he won before. From the first article I linked to:

Obama won three states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — that no Democrat had carried at the presidential level in at least two decades, and he scored victories in six other states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio) that George W. Bush had won in 2004. Those nine states will account for 112 electoral votes in 2012 and stand at the center of the fight for the presidency.

If Obama loses every one of them but holds on to the others he won, he will drop to 247 electoral votes and Republicans will win the White House. (The decennial reapportionment of congressional districts after the 2010 Census subtracts six electoral votes from states Obama won in 2008.)

But with the exception of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes, Obama is very much in the game in those states. In several, even Republicans acknowledge that he is favored.
 

Fusion

Global Moderator
Who are you voting for anyway Fusion?
Obama. I loathe the platform and ideology of the Republican party. Obama has his faults of course, but much of the negatives associated with him are due to a mess he inherited and the stonewalling tactics the Republicans have employed in Congress. I have never seen this level of obstructionism practiced in American politics before. This coming election is also essential from the perspective of the Supreme Court. There are expected to be around 2 to 3 vacancies, most of them belonging to the “liberal” bloc. If a Republican wins, the Supreme Court will be firmly placed on the conservative side for the next several decades. IMO, that would be disastrous to the values and shape of this country.

Virginia and NC? Seen his approval ratings in NC lately?
The point is he doesn’t have to win all of those states. His margin of error is far greater than the Republican nominee’s.
 

smalishah84

The Tiger King
Go Osama go. I mean go Obama go. :ph34r:

Hardly delivered on anything that he claimed to. The thing is can he deliver in the next 4 years?
 

smalishah84

The Tiger King
btw Herman Cain's graph was on the rise but his popularity seems to be coming down after several revelations of ***ual harassment. Does Cain sound any good? Would seem cool that 2 black men running for president
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Go Osama go. I mean go Obama go. :ph34r:

Hardly delivered on anything that he claimed to. The thing is can he deliver in the next 4 years?
Really?
Get out of Iraq? Check
Repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell? Check
Work to decrease nuclear weapons? Check
Close the donut hole in medicare? Check.
Expand sCHIP? Check.
Healthcare reform (one that Clinton failed on, Carter failed on, and every president since Theodore Roosevelt failed on): Check.

I would elect him based solely on the bolded items. The healthcare was more Nancy Pelosi (though obviously it needed a democratic white house to pass) but don't ask don't tell was pretty much him getting to the white house and telling the pentagon that they need to find a way to make the transition. Not if there is going to be a transition, but that there will be, and they need to deal with it.

He lied about closing Guantanamo Bay and didn't let the Bush tax cuts for the rich expire.

I think unless you watch Fox News, you can't say that he has 'hardly' kept his promises. You can be dissapointed, as many are, but you can't say he hasn't done a lot of what he said he was going to do.
 
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Fusion

Global Moderator
^ ^ Don't forget about Wall Street Reform as well. He stared down one of the deepest pocketed industry in the United States and still got Congress to pass a substantial reform bill. That will be one of the first things repealed under a Republican President and Congress btw.
 

Cevno

Hall of Fame Member
He is also bat**** insane - so blinded by his idealogy that he automatically rejects anything that doesn't neatly fit into it. And he truly believes it. To me that's a lot more dangerous than someone like a Mitt Romney who'll flip flop on whether the Sun rises in the east if it'll get him elected.
He caters to his base which has grown, tbf and plays the rebel a bit. I know there is a lot of scope of disagreement with him as he is a somewhat different ideology to mainstream, but haven't seen why the media portrays him as a non-serious person and constantly pokes fun at him. Tbf, he has been right on many issues in advance(including wars) from what i have read about him and he is certainly not a lunatic running wild, viewing from outside.

Disagree. I feel that if Romney is the nominee, Obama will lose. EVERYBODY caters to their base during the primary. They'll come back to the center during the general election. Who else are the tea party members gonna vote for? Obama? I don't think so. Basically they need to win Ohio and Florida. Obama is taking an absolute beating in Ohio due to the economic downturn, and to win Florida all the republicans need to do is select Rubio as the VP candidate. Welcome to Romney 2012.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html?_r=1

The only person I listen to about these things is Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right). Deadset, without a doubt, and by far the best and most accurate political predictions on the internet.
Will he take it though? Think, he would want a run at the top job in the not that distant future.
 
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Agent Nationaux

International Coach
Fusion, can you provide a little more detail on the additional banking regulation regarding the wall street reform bill.

Smali is getting confused. He thinks Obama is the president of the world and not just the US. That is why he thinks Obama has done nothing (he is expecting Obama to not only work for US interests but also the rest of the world interests). I'm afraid Smali that's not how things work.
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
TBF the banks have found a way around most of the things in that law already. That's the reason wall street lobbies support it - it's almost toothless, and were to to be repealed nothing much would change...except they are afraid an actual law that stops them from doing what they're doing might be passed.

That's why I didn't list it in his achievements.
 

Adamc

Cricketer Of The Year
O'Reilly is kind of adorable really. The impression I always get from him is that he's actually quite unsure of his own political beliefs and compensates by making sure his voice is the loudest in the room. When he comes up against someone like Jon Stewart who has the ability and profile to cut through his rhetoric it usually makes for an interesting encounter.
 

Magrat Garlick

Global Moderator
Rick Perry. OH. MY. GOD. He had a catastrophic moment in tonight's GOP debate. It's already being called the worst debate moment of all time. I can't think of a worst political moment myself. I can't stand the guy and I actually felt bad for him.

Watch Rick Perry's Campaign End Before Your Eyes
That was picked up here too.

Followed by US-friendly people saying 'oh but look why don't Norwegian TV show Obama when he ****s up' (presumably because none of them have been so truly fail as this...)
 

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