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South Africa Vs India

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
"Mug" punters jump in on a roll such as the Indian's are on at the moment, forcing the odds down.

There will not be many seasoned and successful gamblers putting cash on India to win the World Cupas the odds do not reflect their true chances. Now if they were to be 10 or 12 to 1, I would be tempted as that is about their chances IMO, and therefore it is a value bet.
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
Originally posted by muralilal
[quote
As you've stated India haven't played the big nations recently, so their high percentage is a bit false surely, and I can't see there's a guarantee that they'll make it to the semi finals!

To be honest, there aren't any guarantees in Onedayer cricket.I would say that India have a very good chance of making it to the semis BUT won't say it's a 100 percent chance, same goes for teams like SA,Pak & SL [/quote]

For reasons I've already gone into - it wouldn't surprise me if they went out at the Group stage, but then again it wouldn't surprise me if they went to the semis. If I had to bet on one or the other, depending on the odds on offer, I'd take odds of 2-1 them not going through, and probably 6-4 them reaching the semis.
 

full_length

U19 Vice-Captain
you know that? I'm saying that it would've been closer than it was had Gough at full fitness played. You can't just declare something like that would have happened it is being too specific.
Nopes. I dont know that. Neither did you know before the match that Blackwell would do well.
Since Gough didn't play, there's no saying that his playing would have made the match very much closer. He's played India 6 times in 2001/2 and taken one wicket in each of five matches and two in one match. I don't see Ganguly or Sehwag worrying about him like they would have about Pollock, Donald or Kallis today.
So if you can say he would have run the match a lot closer by himself, I can just as easily say that Laxman would have scored a 150. I just stopped with a Sachin ton :)

No, because the Australian odds being short more truly indicate their chances of winning than the Indian odds do.

A true gambler would take a horse to win at 6-1 on (a return of 16p for a ? bet) if they perceive the horse is likely to win 99 times out of 100.

At the moment, I see India quoted at about 4 to 1 - meaning if the Tournament were played 10 times, the bookies think India will win it 2 times.

In my view if it were played 10 times, they may win it once, meaning my odds would be 9-1.

Now Australia are about 2-1 meaning they'd win 66 out of every 100. My view would be it's more like 75 or 80 times out of 100, so the 2-1 is generous, so I'd be more likely to take it.

That is why I say gamblers would not touch India - the volume of "mug" punters betting on them drives the price down so that it is not indicative of their chances.

Does that explain my reasoning?
That's an everyday gambler. A true gambler would look for a chance to make the big buck. And for this tournament, India does have the firepower to consistently play well, and win. They've done well in their last few matches against all teams they have played ODIs.
And they are getting better too. You'd want to take odds of 4-1 on India :) the way they are going. And nobody cares about things like "India will win the tournament 2 times if it's played 10 times". That's just mathematics. Things are much more complex than that.

aussie_beater was also on the mark :D

When I said "judgement" I was talking of our judgement of whether India will win after the semifinals. Luck ?! duh!

The percentage is not "false". It just means that things are unpredictable vis a vis the other three teams. It is very much "true" that India has a good win percentage. It is simply "unknown" what India can do against Aus, SA and Pak from statistics. Here's where "judgement" comes in.
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
That's an everyday gambler. A true gambler would look for a chance to make the big buck.
You've got that the wrong way round - the everyday punter goes for the "big buck" - the true (successful, almost professional) gambler looks for the value.
For me 4-1 India is not value.
[/quote]
 

masterblaster

International Captain
Im not sure why, but I think everyone should give credit where credits due, I think the sudden "INDIAN WINNING" has taken every one by surprise especially English supporters.

;) :lol: :lol:

Anyway well done India, Im proud of my country and proud of my team. Well played
 

wahindiawah

Banned
I have my sympathies with english fans, u have to understand their pain.The team that was supposed to be "As good as anyone", has been thrashed and kicked off in the first round!
 

full_length

U19 Vice-Captain
Dear IF ONLY Marc.

Originally posted by marc71178
Originally posted by full_length
you know that?
Nopes. I dont know that.
Amazing how snipping 2 words out of a sentence can completely change the meaning.
Yes, I've noticed that. AND THIS POST CONTINUES. (mod.s that was only for someone with a particularly severe case of self-serving selective blindness.)
marc, it's also amazing how seeing one part of the story, dogmatically (aah! now I know what a rainy day fan is like :lol: ) can twist a single statement to mean ten different things. Did I hear earlier from someone (else) that the native speakers of English do a better job of comprehension (uh.. you chaps got it wrong there too..)?
Well, for your benefit (GET THOSE GLASSES..) here's the rest of the post:

********************************

Neither did you know before the match that Blackwell would do well.
Since Gough didn't play, there's no saying that his playing would have made the match very much closer. He's played India 6 times in 2001/2 and taken one wicket in each of five matches and two in one match. I don't see Ganguly or Sehwag worrying about him like they would have about Pollock, Donald or Kallis today.
So if you can say he would have run the match a lot closer by himself, I can just as easily say that Laxman would have scored a 150. I just stopped with a Sachin ton :D
*********************************

Tell me if you still don't understand what's meant here. i have some time tonight. I can take you through it word by word.

(hint hint: the idea is that if you can say that IF Gough played all the remaining Indians would have trembled and crumbled in terror, I can say that no, IF Gough had played and IF he had got the 2-19 (that Neil proposed. Ah what foresight.. no wait.. hindsight.. no what IS it? Just yet another hypothetical statement from a rainy day English fan who will come out even when England loses to say that no IF ONLY...) Sachin and Laxman would have got a ton. )
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
The reason I didn't answer anything to the rest of the post was that I agreed with it in the main - the bit I disagreed with was misquoting me.
 

Gotchya

State Vice-Captain
Yesterday's game really had me disoriented. Now, here i was, staring at an imminent SA win and they goof up big time. Should have kept their bad habits in mind. But there is one thing that has come out of this match and the series as a whole for India. On the many occasions before they lacked the instinct to grab an oppurtunity, and when they did they never capitalised. That was a huge disadvantage and short coming, but now things seem to have changed. The biggest reason is the infusion of young blood into the team, who are not burdened with a sense of underachievement or undue pressure. Most importantly every indian player seems to have realised the importance of his position in the team, that in its self is pivotal to any teams success. India have at the moment, young players in exactly the right positions.

The only problem i now see is that India lack a world class strike bowler. That may steal a lot of sting from this side. Batting lineup is very solid, but when it comes to bowling, Ganguly is forced to throw the ball to atleast 7-8 of his team mates, which might work sometimes (Sehwag is an example) but not always. Srinath will have to return if India want to go places now.
 

Top_Cat

Request Your Custom Title Now!
The biggest reason is the infusion of young blood into the team, who are not burdened with a sense of underachievement or undue pressure. Most importantly every indian player seems to have realised the importance of his position in the team, that in its self is pivotal to any teams success. India have at the moment, young players in exactly the right positions.
Bear in mind that this exact same thing was said when Ganguly, Laxman, Dravid and Agarkar came into the side and even as far back as when Tendulkar, Manjrekar and Kambli entered the international arena. There was an initial flush of some success for the individuals but it wasn't maintained by the team.

Not meant as a dig at the current crop (because I think Yuvraj is QUALITY with a capital Q; Kaif I've not seen bat yet) but I reserve judgement until I see them perform consistently. That's what separates a potentially great player from a great one. Yuvraj is an example of a player who is potentially great but needs some solid innings at Test level. Being picked in the Test side at all would be nice! I'm stunned as to why it hasn't happened yet.

As I've said to people on numerous occasions, Indian players will NOT succeed in bouncy or even pitches with mild carry if they keep playing defensive shots at seam bowlers with low hands. It gets them every time. I lost count of how many times Ganguly, Dravid, and co. got out caught behind fending at balls which were just back of a length on their last tour here and same for the previous tours. It was monotonous in its regularity.

Another thing: Indian players play at the ball far too much on bouncy pitches which is probably a hangover from playing on slow, low wickets. Knowing when to leave the ball is as much a skill as actually playing it. English batsmen foudn this out first-hand when on their last tour here at the WACA, they were fending at everything and I think all bar one of the dismissals in their first innings were to slips and keeper catches. Apparently they were stunned when the Aussies would let the ball go when right on middle stump and watch it sail harmlessly over the top. They learnt a lot from that I'm sure.

These are two glaring technical deficiencies and unless players like Ganguly, Dravid, Laxman et al address it, they'll continue to struggle in bouncy conditions which abound in Australia, the West Indies, South Africa etc.

[Edited on 26/9/2002 by Top_Cat]
 

Gotchya

State Vice-Captain
Wasn't getting carried away (though now my post seems to dripping), but just geeing up things. It was nice to see the players perform. Yes, technically the indian batsmen may be found lacking in those conditions, same as the Sri Lankans do, and to a lesser extent the Pakistanis.

Interesting point you make there, when Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Agarkar were on the scene, Indians looked refreshed then as well. I said that the younger players are not burdened with a sense of under-achievement and pressure to perform. Does the syndrome just pick on them as well? or is it a more fundamental problem ? India has performed badly on tracks that are not bouncy......

What do you think is the reason for this flash in the pan thing ?
 

Top_Cat

Request Your Custom Title Now!
Yes, technically the indian batsmen may be found lacking in those conditions, same as the Sri Lankans do, and to a lesser extent the Pakistanis.
Strangely enough, the Pakistani's have been more undone by spin against Australia...........weird.

Interesting point you make there, when Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Agarkar were on the scene, Indians looked refreshed then as well. I said that the younger players are not burdened with a sense of under-achievement and pressure to perform. Does the syndrome just pick on them as well? or is it a more fundamental problem ? India has performed badly on tracks that are not bouncy......

What do you think is the reason for this flash in the pan thing ?
Technically; heavy bats. It's rare for any of the Aussies to use a bat heavier than 2lbs 8oz (I think Mark Waugh may be the exception here). Plus, the Aussies tend to adjust which bats they use depending ont the conditions. Viv Richards used to do the same.

The Indian players use these absolutely beautiful bats with magnificent curves in the ends of them but they are just far too heavy. Sachin can wield his pretty well (amazing considering he's not tall and uses a 3lbs bat) in any conditions but the heavier bats can cause someone with less strong wrists to angle the bat, hence lots of catches behind in conjunction with the low hands. This can cause a player to close the face of the bat and edge a ball to close-in fielders. So I'd suggest lighter bats. The decrease in power would be marginal and hey, Andrew Symonds uses a toothpick but no-one can say he doesn't hit the ball HARD.

The problem (still in technical terms) is what shots some of the Indian players tend to sweat on. Anything which they can play in the arc between point or gully and mid-off or cover, they will. This is partly due to the heavier bats and partly due to the style of pitch they're used to. Slow and low means that for any balls to be hit square of the wicket, you need straong play in that arc. Mohammed Azharuddin was a master at it and so is Rahul Dravid. Laxman's most powerful shots are in that region, though he can pull pretty well too.

But really the main technical problem is the low hands and playing too much at the line of the ball rather than at the movement off the pitch.

Another facet to the problem may be attitudinal. It requires a different mindset and the ability to switch to a different array of shots when the conditions are different. For example, on bouncy wickets, look to leave the ball a lot, NEVER drive on the up (Indian players do this a lot - slow, low pitches once again) and look to cut rather than drive square off the backfoot.

On slow wickets, you basically put the cut shot away, look to get on the front-foot as much as possible and look for those shots you can rock back onto the back-foot and wait to time it through point or cover because on slow wickets, you must wait for the ball a lot more.

Maybe the Indian players are not willing to compromise their pet shots. Who knows? All I know is what I see and what I see are glaring technical faults in defense especially which are the direct result of playing on slow pitches and them not being able to adjust.

So far, Only guys like Sachin are able to adjust their game to suit the conditions. Also, he has a pretty remarkable eye so that if he goes for a back-foot drive and the ball bounces a little more, he can adjust - the mark of a seriously good player.

I can tell you now though, that there are very few all-wicket players anymore. Sachin is one; Steve Waugh is another; Gary Kirsten; Inzy and that's about it. So Indian's aren't alone in their ability (of lack of) to play in different conditions than they're used to.

[Edited on 26/9/2002 by Top_Cat]
 

Anil

Hall of Fame Member
The players, whom you mentioned have proved over the years that they are no flash in the pan. The records of Tendulkar and Dravid and to a lesser extent, Ganguly and Laxman, show that. Tendulkar was the only one who really took the fight to the Aussie bowlers in the last series, but since then Dravid has really matured as a batsman and I am confident that he will do well in the next series. As for Ganguly and Laxman, they look like having achieved some consistency based on the results of the last two series and if they carry their form forward, should do better in the next Aus series(BTW when is the next Aus series?)

Even with the arrival of these 4 players, there never was any significant increase in the team performance curve, only some great individual performances(and some success in one dayers). The reasons for this could be:

Lack of team spirit.

Lack of determination and grit, Tendulkar and occasionally Dravid being the honourable exceptions.

Lack of self-belief fuelled by poor record abroad, fatalistic approach to tough match situations etc.

Poor fielding, catching, fitness levels.....

A largely ineffective bowling attack on pitches abroad.

The shadow of match fixing, with prominent players like Azhar, Jadeja involved.

In the past year or so, there has been a growing change in a positive direction and this has coincided with and is in a large measure due to the infusion of some talented youngsters into the team like Sehwag, Yuvraj, Kaif, Harb and Mongia. The changes were:

Welcome unity in the team with Gangs, Wright and other seniors in the team openly supporting and encouraging the youngsters.

New found determination and grit.

Pulling through in couple of tough situations, they are developing a belief that they can indeed win these close encounters and beat any team on their day.

Fielding and fitness levels have improved considerably.

The bowling attack still continues to be toothless and is the biggest source of worry.

The match-fixing dirt-bags have been exhumed and it's a cleaner game.

So, when you look at the present scenario and compare it to 10 years back, you can see that the situations were not really similar.

If all the positives I mentioned are maintained or improved and the weak spots are worked on, this improved team performance will endure for a long time. It's about time that happened in Indian cricket.
 

luckyeddie

Cricket Web Staff Member
Im not sure why, but I think everyone should give credit where credits due, I think the sudden "INDIAN WINNING" has taken every one by surprise especially English supporters
Not me, Masterblaster. A few months ago, yes, but not recently (especially in ODI's).
And regarding who my tenner's gone on for the world cup - 13/2 was too good an opportunity to miss.
 

warrioryohannan

U19 Cricketer
Originally posted by masterblaster
Im not sure why, but I think everyone should give credit where credits due, I think the sudden "INDIAN WINNING" has taken every one by surprise especially English supporters.

;) :lol: :lol:
Yeah man, some of them nearly had an heart attack.

:P:P:lol::saint:
 

marc71178

Eyes not spreadsheets
Originally posted by luckyeddie
Im not sure why, but I think everyone should give credit where credits due, I think the sudden "INDIAN WINNING" has taken every one by surprise especially English supporters
Not me, Masterblaster. A few months ago, yes, but not recently (especially in ODI's).
And regarding who my tenner's gone on for the world cup - 13/2 was too good an opportunity to miss.
If they were at 13-2 now I'd be interested as that is more like their true chances than what's on offer now.
 

Gotchya

State Vice-Captain
The players, whom you mentioned have proved over the years that they are no flash in the pan. The records of Tendulkar and Dravid and to a lesser extent, Ganguly and Laxman, show that.
I wasn't pointing at individual players but the overall upheaval the team experienced for a short time but then deflated again.

Even with the arrival of these 4 players, there never was any significant increase in the team performance curve, only some great individual performances(and some success in one dayers). The reasons for this could be:
Now ur at it.
Lack of team spirit.

Lack of determination and grit, Tendulkar and occasionally Dravid being the honourable exceptions.

Lack of self-belief fuelled by poor record abroad, fatalistic approach to tough match situations etc.
What i would like to ask is, which came first : Poor performances or the Lack of self-belief ?
 

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