*Official* Pakistan in England 2020

[Spark]

probably going to cop some flack for this take because it's pretty out there and pretty stupid (or maybe it's secretly brilliant)

with keepers, who will have many chances come to them almost every test match, you can come as close as you can to isolating a player's fielding impact by way of runs scored by players after a keeper's drop. it's disingenuous to do this with a regular fielder given chances don't come with the same regularity to your average fielder (though if an outfielder is notably bad such that he's giving you a clanger a game you can probably debit his account too)

anyway

what i'm saying is with keepers you sort of can debit them for runs scored by guys dropped off absolute clangers. a drop on a sitter to a keeper is the closest that you'll get to a drop where the only thing that goes wrong is the catch (as opposed to a fielder's positioning or their walking in and so on), and as such, i think it's reasonable to debit a keeper who's regularly clanging them - and that's the important caveat - but it's quite reasonable to put the black mark against their name for the runs scored after a drop.

this is to say, when you have a keeper who's in such dire form with the gloves as buttler is, their contributions are potentially outweighed by the runs scored after a drop and you can measure that.

now obviously this is a ceteris paribus exercise and doesn't account for the butterfly effect but i still think it's a conversation we have to have, especially as the standard of test keeping gets worse at an almost yearly rate

It's not so much the butterfly effect which is a problem -- otherwise you'd never be able to decide on anything because how do you know that not taking a wicket prevented some incredible confluence of circumstances that led to the next batsman scoring a run-a-ball hundred or something like that -- but the psychological effect on the rest of the team, which is quite real. The keeper sets the tone for the entire team, a bad keeper will degrade the overall quality of the whole fielding and bowling effort and make it harder to maintain an high intensity level because the bowler cannot trust that most basic of constants: that the keeper will catch the ball.

 

[Howe_zat]

especially as the standard of test keeping gets worse at an almost yearly rate

Huge myth.

 

[trundler]

It clearly isn't though.

 

[hazsa19]

this argument makes no sense unless you base decisions based on a sample size of one inning.

Thought it was pretty clear that I was basing it on current form. There’s no one out there to bring in as an extra bat who you would argue is much more likely to score runs than Buttler.

Seems more sensible to make a call on current form rather than matches 3 years ago.

 

[theegyptian]

At least this clears everything up with regards to Stokes and whether he can bowl for the rest of the summer. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/cricket/ben-stokes-withdraws-england-squad-22492573?22=

Going back to Christchurch to be with family and isn't available for rest of summer.

 

[SillyCowCorner1]

So Sam Curran comes in for Stokes?

 

[trundler]

Hasn't his dad been ill? Hope all's fine there

 

[vcs]

Hopefully everything is sorted at home and he can come back and play with a clear mind.

Curran would probably be a drop in replacement, I guess.

 

[Howe_zat]

His dad has been unwell for some time now unfortunately.

Stokes has been playing as a batsman in these last two tests (despite getting a bowl anyway) so ought to be replaced with a batsman, most likely Zak Crawley.

Curran might get a gig but it'd be in place of one of the seamers.

 

[hazsa19]

Burns
Sibley
Crawley
Root
Pope
Buttler
Curran
Woakes
Wood
Broad
Leach

Is this the team for the next match?

 

[honestbharani]

Well, all the best to Stokes Sr. and hopefully all is fine with their family. This is now a golden opportunity for Pakistan. I would simply get Crawley for Stokes, Curran for Anderson and Wood for Archer.

 

[honestbharani]

Not sure of Leach for Bess but yeah that won't be the worst idea either.

 

[trundler]

Archer hasn't done anything to get dropped

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Buttler's keeping was not seen as an issue until the last couple of matches, we have had similar things with Bairstow in the past.

Foakes has of course become the greatest keeper in history during his absence, am sure he dropped at least one in the West Indies.

He has always been an average keeper, the worry is that unlike Bairstow who worked hard to improve Buttler hasn't improved at all from his younger days.

 

[SillyCowCorner1]

Archer hasn't done anything to get dropped

He hasn’t done anything yet;but he might do something like stepping out of the bubble again lol

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Horrible news about Stokes, best wishes to his family. Might alter the team we go for dramatically for next week now presuming Stokes was going to be fit to play a full part as a bowler.

 

[cricketsavant]

Sad we won't see STokes for the rest of the summer but glad he gets time with his family. Deserves it. Pakistan must also be slightly more confident now.

 

[Groundking]

We're a batter short and losing our best batter yet people are still wanting to do 5-1-5? I'd go

Burns
Sibley
Crawley
Root
Pope
Lawrence
Buttler
Woakes
Curran
Bess/Leach/Wood
Broad

Bess or Leach is a toss up for me, we're down to 4 man attack so Leach might be the better option as he gives nice control and can keep an end tired up better to give the seam a rest. If the pitch doesn't look like it'll take much spin I'd go with Wood as Root and Lawrence can tweek it.

I wish Stokes the best

 

[Woodster]

Firstly, sad news on Stokes, hope his family are ok.

I’ve taken to digest what was a fantastic run chase yesterday and incredible partnership between Buttler and Woakes under extreme pressure, such a shame there wasn‘t a full house at OT to enjoy another thrilling Test.

I’ve been critical of Buttler lately (not sure he’ll be too concerned with my thoughts) with the gloves and his approach to Test batting, with some justification I think, but yesterday demonstrated how effective he can be when he bats with that intent, flair, aggression and absolute skill. It was a one-day innings and he approached the scenario like it was a one-day game and that’s when he looks so certain of his game and clear in his mind how he’s going to play. He has to find a way to produce that mindset of yesterday and use his innings as a template for how he bats in Test match cricket on a more consistent basis.

He won‘t be able to reproduce that kind of successful innings every Test, obviously, he averages 32 in Tests and First-Class cricket for a very good reason in that he hasn’t quite figured out the longer form of the game yet, but averages 40 in ODI’s. If he bats in this style more frequently he can still yet become the player that can excite and turn games for England on a slightly more regular basis.

The next question is whether he does that as the keeper/batsman or just a batsman as is being mooted in some areas. Will these outstandingly good yet relatively few and far between efforts be enough for a number six batsman ? Does he have it in him to become a more consistent runscorer ? I’d guess not at this stage. But whatever his role, he must be given the freedom and have the licence to produce counter-attacking innings like yesterday, it won’t always come off but I’d much rather see him take calculated risks, he’s an X-factor batsman and he must be allowed to demonstrate that with some freedom.

 

[trundler]

The only problem with the Archer is that he's been billed as this speed demon imported to run through batting lineups and be the English Macko or whatever. So at every point in his career there are going to be a lot naysayers who go nah he's not that good. In reality he's just a 25 year old quick who can hit 150 KPH on occasion, get it to seam and has a sneaky bouncer. Theres a lot to work with there and in no universe does Mark Wood come in ahead of him at home. He hasn't even been bad. He's had a couple of impressive spells in his last 2 or 3 games so let him continue unless they're rotating again. That said it's fun to dish on him because he comes off as a bit twattish and he's English.