The American Politics thread - Page 95

Spikey · 19-07-2012, 08:59 PM

goddamnit spark release the tax forms already

silentstriker · 19-07-2012, 09:52 PM

I've been saying for a while that I don't think Obama will win.

In any case: despicable comments by Bachmann, and a fitting response by McCain.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) defends Huma Abedin - YouTube

Fusion · 19-07-2012, 10:14 PM

I simply don't understand the extreme pessimism regarding Obama's chances. I'm not saying he's a lock to win, but he's got a greater than 50% chance IMO. It will all come down to the swing states, and Obama has consistently lead Romney in those polls. Romney's campaign strategy of "focusing on the economy" is just not enough. Also, how in the world does a guy who's been running for President for 8 years not have a proper response ready for predictable attacks on his Bain record and the tax returns issue? Boggles the mind.

And yup, kudos to McCain, Boehner, and all the other Republicans that are condemning the nut job that is Bachman.

Spark · 19-07-2012, 10:16 PM

538 has had him at about 67-68% chance to win for aaaaages. Hardly anything has happened poll-wise for a month.

Spikey · 19-07-2012, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusion

Also, how in the world does a guy who's been running for President for 8 years not have a proper response ready for predictable attacks on his Bain record and the tax returns issue? Boggles the mind.

Tbf it's been 20 odd years and he's still terrible at campaigning

Sanz · 19-07-2012, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusion

I simply don't understand the extreme pessimism regarding Obama's chances. I'm not saying he's a lock to win, but he's got a greater than 50% chance IMO. It will all come down to the swing states, and Obama has consistently lead Romney in those polls. Romney's campaign strategy of "focusing on the economy" is just not enough. Also, how in the world does a guy who's been running for President for 8 years not have a proper response ready for predictable attacks on his Bain record and the tax returns issue? Boggles the mind.

Look at what is happening in the Swing States. Assuming that Obama wins PA, he still needs to win Ohio + Virginia/NV. Don't see him winning VA/NV and he is not winning Florida this time.

Quote:

And yup, kudos to McCain, Boehner, and all the other Republicans that are condemning the nut job that is Bachman.

Too Little too late. It is a meak reaction/protest and deserves no praise from me in fact it is a very hypocritical stand considering that seeds of this sort of rhetoric was sowed by McCain and Republican Party's VP pick back in 2008.

I don't see how this sort of statement is any worse than Palin saying that "Our opponent is someone who sees America imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists".

Spark · 19-07-2012, 10:49 PM

He's 50/50 in Florida. I'll be stunned if he loses PA, it'll take a big movement to shift VA, and Ohio is leaning in his direction.

Sanz · 19-07-2012, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spark

538 has had him at about 67-68% chance to win for aaaaages. Hardly anything has happened poll-wise for a month.

CBS News/New York Times poll: 7/18/12 - CBS News

Spark · 19-07-2012, 11:01 PM

Individual polls are close to meaningless.

Sanz · 19-07-2012, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spark

He's 50/50 in Florida. I'll be stunned if he loses PA, it'll take a big movement to shift VA, and Ohio is leaning in his direction.

It has already shifted in VA, Romney has closed the gap and it is a toss up. Florida is leaning towards Romney, almost every single polls has it in Romney's favor.

Spark · 19-07-2012, 11:09 PM

Almost every? Not really.

Florida Decides Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat
Tight in Florida | weaskamerica.com
Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * June 27, 2012 * Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Sw - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut

Romney has the edge, but it's definitely up in the air.

morgieb · 20-07-2012, 02:40 AM

Besides Obama doesn't need Florida. Even if he lost all of Virginia, Ohio and Florida, he'd still win. Of course Romney is looking competitive in Colorado and Iowa, but yeah.

Spark · 20-07-2012, 05:45 AM

He wouldn't just lose FL, VA, OH though...

morgieb · 20-07-2012, 06:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spark

He wouldn't just lose FL, VA, OH though...

That wasn't my point though.

My point is that the electoral math is pretty stacked against the Republicans, purely due to the way big states vote. California, Illinois and New York are all dyed in the wool blue. Texas is the only decent comparison for the Republicans. There are good reasons why the Democrats won the popular vote in every election since 1988 apart from 2004. Also, with the Democrats winning 95% of the black and around 70% of the Hispanic vote (obviously could change but Romney doesn't really appeal to these groups), he needs 60%+ of the white vote. And I dunno if that can happen unless the economy went under.

Of course it's still possible that Romney can win, but he's the underdog ats.

morgieb · 20-07-2012, 06:17 AM

One thing that does worry me though is history.

The last time someone won re-election despite winning less EV's was 1916. I can't remember the last time it happened in the PV. And I highly doubt that Obama can beat 2008.

I'm still betting on a 2004-esque performance though.

19-07-2012, 08:59 PM	#1411 (permalink)
Spikey Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: All Glory To The Nev Posts: 24,107	goddamnit spark release the tax forms already __________________ Indians can't bowl - Where has the rumour come from as I myself and many indian friends arwe competent fast bowlers ? With the English bid I said: Let us be brief. If you give back the Falkland Islands, which belong to us, you will get my vote. They then became sad and left

20-07-2012, 02:40 AM	#1422 (permalink)
morgieb Cricketer Of The Year Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Paradise City Posts: 8,938	Besides Obama doesn't need Florida. Even if he lost all of Virginia, Ohio and Florida, he'd still win. Of course Romney is looking competitive in Colorado and Iowa, but yeah. __________________ 4-0 RIP Craig Walsh (Craig) 1985-2012 Proudly supporting the #2 cricketer of all time.

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19-07-2012, 10:14 PM	#1413 (permalink)
Fusion Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: United States Posts: 10,783	I simply don't understand the extreme pessimism regarding Obama's chances. I'm not saying he's a lock to win, but he's got a greater than 50% chance IMO. It will all come down to the swing states, and Obama has consistently lead Romney in those polls. Romney's campaign strategy of "focusing on the economy" is just not enough. Also, how in the world does a guy who's been running for President for 8 years not have a proper response ready for predictable attacks on his Bain record and the tax returns issue? Boggles the mind. And yup, kudos to McCain, Boehner, and all the other Republicans that are condemning the nut job that is Bachman.

19-07-2012, 10:49 PM	#1417 (permalink)
Spark Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: A Blood Rainbow Posts: 26,759	He's 50/50 in Florida. I'll be stunned if he loses PA, it'll take a big movement to shift VA, and Ohio is leaning in his direction.

19-07-2012, 11:01 PM	#1419 (permalink)
Spark Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: A Blood Rainbow Posts: 26,759	Individual polls are close to meaningless.

19-07-2012, 11:09 PM	#1421 (permalink)
Spark Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: A Blood Rainbow Posts: 26,759	Almost every? Not really. Florida Decides Poll: Obama, Romney in dead heat Tight in Florida \| weaskamerica.com Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll * June 27, 2012 * Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Sw - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut Romney has the edge, but it's definitely up in the air.

20-07-2012, 05:45 AM	#1423 (permalink)
Spark Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: A Blood Rainbow Posts: 26,759	He wouldn't just lose FL, VA, OH though...

20-07-2012, 06:17 AM	#1425 (permalink)
morgieb Cricketer Of The Year Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Paradise City Posts: 8,938	One thing that does worry me though is history. The last time someone won re-election despite winning less EV's was 1916. I can't remember the last time it happened in the PV. And I highly doubt that Obama can beat 2008. I'm still betting on a 2004-esque performance though.

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