The American Politics thread

[Fusion]

Originally Posted by Fusion

You guys are jumping the gun wayyyyy too early. It will be a close election, but it's still advantage Obama. We all know it's going to come down to select swing states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Each of those States' economies are doing slightly better than the national average; hence Obama is less likely to be impacted by that issue in those States. The polls show that Obama still leads Romney in most of the swing states.

This is going to be a long, nasty, and competitive race. Neither party can feel confident about winning or losing at this stage.

To further support my point that Obama is still a (slight) favorite, NY TImes' FiveThirtyEight forecast has Obama with a 60% chance of winning.

[silentstriker]

The election isn't today though - the economy isn't getting better in the next six months, especially with the obstructionist policies of Congress.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by Fusion

IMO there is a definite shift towards the right world-wide. It may not be as extreme as the right-wing Republican party of the States, but nevertheless there is a rightward trend. Consider:

-France experienced a definite rightward shift in the last decade. Even Sarkozy's UMP is a center-right party.
-The center-right CDU/CSU won in Germany.
-The Torries won the most seats in the 2010 UK general elections.
-The center-right New Democracy party just won the Greece elections.
-Benjamin Neanyahu's right-wing Likud party is in control of Israel.
-The right-wing N-VA won a plurality in Belgium.
-The right-wing People's Party is in control in Spain.
-John Howard was the PM of Australia just 4 years ago.

Those are just a few examples. Again, I'm conceding that "right-wing" in America means something different from right-wing in Europe, Asia, or Australia. However, I think there is no doubt that the right has enjoyed a resurgence in the last decade world-wide.

Not disagreeing with you. Just was making a joke about France and how they do things differently to everyone else.

I still don't see France as right wing. Just nationalist. They often overlap but aren't necessarily the same thing. At its heart France is still a place which will strike at any time

[Fusion]

Originally Posted by silentstriker

The election isn't today though - the economy isn't getting better in the next six months, especially with the obstructionist policies of Congress.

Oh I agree that the economy is not going to turn around before the election. What's important for Obama though is the economy of the swing states doesn't get worse. As I mentioned, most of the swing states are doing better than the nation as a whole, hence the fact that Obama is leading or tied with Romney in those states. As long as the economy doesn't tank in the swing states, Obama is still the slight favorite.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by Fusion

IMO there is a definite shift towards the right world-wide. It may not be as extreme as the right-wing Republican party of the States, but nevertheless there is a rightward trend. Consider:

-France experienced a definite rightward shift in the last decade. Even Sarkozy's UMP is a center-right party.
-The center-right CDU/CSU won in Germany.
-The Torries won the most seats in the 2010 UK general elections.
-The center-right New Democracy party just won the Greece elections.
-Benjamin Neanyahu's right-wing Likud party is in control of Israel.
-The right-wing N-VA won a plurality in Belgium.
-The right-wing People's Party is in control in Spain.
-John Howard was the PM of Australia just 4 years ago.

Those are just a few examples. Again, I'm conceding that "right-wing" in America means something different from right-wing in Europe, Asia, or Australia. However, I think there is no doubt that the right has enjoyed a resurgence in the last decade world-wide.




I should have stated "conflict" rather than wars. I'm referring of course to Iraq, Afghanistan, and the global "war on terror". I would argue that since WW2, this is the most heightened amount of conflict we've experienced and it is a major factor in people turning to the conservative parties of their respective countries.

I think there's a trend away from the governments who wre in power when the GFC (and now GFC 2) hit at its worst.

The Rethugs were i power in the US, got turfed.
Labour was in power in the UK, got turfed.
There is no such thing as a left wing in Israel
CDU-CSU lost ground in the 2008 German elections, having to go into Coalition with the FDP (this is bringing back memories of my advanced High School History, all these acronyms - topped the State ftr )
The Spanish PP won the 2011 elections after losing the 2008 elections, which were held before the worst of the GFC/ any of the Eurozone Crisis.
Belgium is a joke and should really be part of France. They offer nothing.
The Greeks had two cracks at getting a majority government.

I exclude Howard from this phenomenon because the GFC hadn't hit at all outside the US before he was rissoled here in November 2007.

Broadly, I think there's a world wide shift away from incumbents. It's even happening here, where a bloke like Tony Abbott, long regarded as the resident nutter on the side of the Tory filth in this country, looks like becoming PM if the current polling stands. And doing so in a land slide, despite us having 5% unemployment, 2% inflation, 3.5% interest rates and the fastest growth in the developed world.

Put simply, people are ungrateful ****s here.

[Spikey]

There's a shift away from incumbents, but there's always growth towards extremist right and left groups during times like these.

[Jono]

Yeah basically if you're sensible, measured and willing to compromise no one wants any part of you

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by Spikey

There's a shift away from incumbents, but there's always growth towards extremist right groups during times like these.

Indeed

[Flem274*]

Originally Posted by Burgey

I think there's a trend away from the governments who wre in power when the GFC (and now GFC 2) hit at its worst.

The Rethugs were i power in the US, got turfed.
Labour was in power in the UK, got turfed.
There is no such thing as a left wing in Israel
CDU-CSU lost ground in the 2008 German elections, having to go into Coalition with the FDP (this is bringing back memories of my advanced High School History, all these acronyms - topped the State ftr )
The Spanish PP won the 2011 elections after losing the 2008 elections, which were held before the worst of the GFC/ any of the Eurozone Crisis.
Belgium is a joke and should really be part of France. They offer nothing.
The Greeks had two cracks at getting a majority government.

I exclude Howard from this phenomenon because the GFC hadn't hit at all outside the US before he was rissoled here in November 2007.

Broadly, I think there's a world wide shift away from incumbents. It's even happening here, where a bloke like Tony Abbott, long regarded as the resident nutter on the side of the Tory filth in this country, looks like becoming PM if the current polling stands. And doing so in a land slide, despite us having 5% unemployment, 2% inflation, 3.5% interest rates and the fastest growth in the developed world.

Put simply, people are ungrateful ****s here.

At the risk of exposing my lack of knowledge of Aussie politics, I'm not sure the GFC has been the root cause of the move to Abbott. Australia is doing very well, WA in particular. Plenty of in demand resources to export and an educated population. Water is a problem in some states I guess.

I think the problem is Gillard can't seem to keep people like Rudd in their place and she's being a "nice" PM, rather than the snarky bastard that she could be. She looks weak, and people don't like that.

[Burgey]

Originally Posted by Flem274*

At the risk of exposing my lack of knowledge of Aussie politics, I'm not sure the GFC has been the root cause of the move to Abbott. Australia is doing very well, WA in particular. Plenty of in demand resources to export and an educated population. Water is a problem in some states I guess.

I think the problem is Gillard can't seem to keep people like Rudd in their place and she's being a "nice" PM, rather than the snarky bastard that she could be. She looks weak, and people don't like that.

You should have been more risk averse.

[Spark]

i've seen gillard merrily eviscerate reporters who stepped out of line. didn't help her

[Spikey]

I mean, any chance Gillard had of being seen as nice went on the window when she you know became PM


Now Kevin Rudd, there's a dickhead seen as nice.

[Jono]

Originally Posted by Flem274*

At the risk of exposing my lack of knowledge of Aussie politics, I'm not sure the GFC has been the root cause of the move to Abbott. Australia is doing very well, WA in particular. Plenty of in demand resources to export and an educated population. Water is a problem in some states I guess.

Australians genuinely think we're struggling. Living costs my God someone think of the living costs.

[howardj]

Originally Posted by Burgey

I think there's a trend away from the governments who wre in power when the GFC (and now GFC 2) hit at its worst.

The Rethugs were i power in the US, got turfed.
Labour was in power in the UK, got turfed.
There is no such thing as a left wing in Israel
CDU-CSU lost ground in the 2008 German elections, having to go into Coalition with the FDP (this is bringing back memories of my advanced High School History, all these acronyms - topped the State ftr )
The Spanish PP won the 2011 elections after losing the 2008 elections, which were held before the worst of the GFC/ any of the Eurozone Crisis.
Belgium is a joke and should really be part of France. They offer nothing.
The Greeks had two cracks at getting a majority government.

I exclude Howard from this phenomenon because the GFC hadn't hit at all outside the US before he was rissoled here in November 2007.

Broadly, I think there's a world wide shift away from incumbents. It's even happening here, where a bloke like Tony Abbott, long regarded as the resident nutter on the side of the Tory filth in this country, looks like becoming PM if the current polling stands. And doing so in a land slide, despite us having 5% unemployment, 2% inflation, 3.5% interest rates and the fastest growth in the developed world.

Put simply, people are ungrateful ****s here.

Yeah, the Australian people are so ungrateful to a Government that was so good it replaced its own PM in the 1st term, and then became only the 2nd Government in history to lose its majority in its 1st term.

Ungrateful sods.

[Burgey]

Yada yada.

Abbott will be gone by the end of this session of parliament.