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Thread: The American Politics thread

  1. #2941
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Main reason being fundraising and support of the establishment. Obama was an exception in 2008 because of the extreme nature of the situation - democrats were feeling hopeless after losing in 2004, and even the frontrunner (Clinton) had never really run a national campaign before.

    This time, I think, if Clinton runs, she's almost a shoo-in. If Clinton (or another democrat) wins, he'll serve a full term in the senate, and run for President in his second term (2024) with some sort of a record. If the Republicans win, he'll run at the end of his first term (in 2020). It takes time to build up a fundraising and support base.

    I think the Democratic candidate that's a little 'under the radar' is Andrew Cuomo. But he's very close to the Clinton family, so if Hillary Clinton runs, he may not run out of deference.
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  2. #2942
    International Captain LongHopCassidy's Avatar
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    Cuomo has been pointedly avoiding media attention, which imo is prudent and adds to his image of "dodge the spotlight, get the job done". Highly electable even in lieu of Clinton support.

    That said, if Hillary runs and wins (which is impossible not to countenance at the moment, given that she'd siphon off even more white voters to Obama's coalition), Cuomo would be the obvious VP.

    Booker v. Christie in a gubernatorial matchup would be amazing viewing, mind. Although Cory is gambling on the fact Lautenberg will gladly vacate his seat, which is a heavy presumption in the Senate unless there's a dead hooker involved. Would be a very ugly primary if not.
    Last edited by LongHopCassidy; 02-04-2013 at 06:18 AM.
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  3. #2943
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongHopCassidy View Post

    Booker v. Christie in a gubernatorial matchup would be amazing viewing, mind. Although Cory is gambling on the fact Lautenberg will gladly vacate his seat, which is a heavy presumption in the Senate unless there's a dead hooker involved. Would be a very ugly primary if not.

    Lautenberg has already said he won't seek re-election.

    Plus, it makes zero sense for a rising star like him to go up against the most popular Republican in the country. He can't beat someone with approval ratings that high, not after Sandy when he's at the top of his game, and even if he did, it would be a very long, knockout fight which would see both of their stocks fall. And at that point he'd have to serve at least a term, maybe longer, to kind of recover from that. Not to mention that he'd have the expectations to follow a governor who was so popular - it's a lose-lose situation for him.

    Even if Lautenberg didn't retire, I think Booker is smart enough not to challenge Christie right now.
    Last edited by silentstriker; 02-04-2013 at 08:03 AM.

  4. #2944
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Mark Kirk becomes second GOP senator to back gay marriage


    In the meantime, only seven democrats left who are still holding out against showing support for gay marriage.


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    Quote Originally Posted by LongHopCassidy View Post
    Cuomo has been pointedly avoiding media attention, which imo is prudent and adds to his image of "dodge the spotlight, get the job done". Highly electable even in lieu of Clinton support.

    That said, if Hillary runs and wins (which is impossible not to countenance at the moment, given that she'd siphon off even more white voters to Obama's coalition), Cuomo would be the obvious VP.

    Booker v. Christie in a gubernatorial matchup would be amazing viewing, mind. Although Cory is gambling on the fact Lautenberg will gladly vacate his seat, which is a heavy presumption in the Senate unless there's a dead hooker involved. Would be a very ugly primary if not.
    No he wouldn't - they're from the same state, and constitutionally that is frowned upon.

    Also, Lautenberg is retiring, so Booker doesn't need to worry about a primary challenge.
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    TL; DW - Obama's to blame for everything

    Interesting tack by Obama's opposition to claim he's too bellicose.
    Last edited by Top_Cat; 04-04-2013 at 05:18 AM.
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  7. #2947
    International Debutant ganeshran's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Actually if you look at the policies from Nixon until now, you will in fact see that the Republican party has moved steadily to the right while the center has not changed. If you look at some of things signed by Nixon and Reagan - they are way to the left of the current mainstream of the Republican party. Secondly, the leadership has generally supported a candidate that wasn't too far to the right compared to his running mate, but the republican base often does not see eye to eye with the leadership and forces the candidates to go further and further to the right.
    You are talking about the economic stand, I am talking about their stand on social issues like immigration, racial sensitivity, homosexuality, abortion (partially) where the society continues to move towards the left while the republican party has pretty much stood still, alienating a significant number of voters.
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  8. #2948
    International Debutant ganeshran's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Main reason being fundraising and support of the establishment. Obama was an exception in 2008 because of the extreme nature of the situation - democrats were feeling hopeless after losing in 2004, and even the frontrunner (Clinton) had never really run a national campaign before.

    This time, I think, if Clinton runs, she's almost a shoo-in. If Clinton (or another democrat) wins, he'll serve a full term in the senate, and run for President in his second term (2024) with some sort of a record. If the Republicans win, he'll run at the end of his first term (in 2020). It takes time to build up a fundraising and support base.

    I think the Democratic candidate that's a little 'under the radar' is Andrew Cuomo. But he's very close to the Clinton family, so if Hillary Clinton runs, he may not run out of deference.
    She will be pushing 70 by 2016, way too old to run for a presidency IMO. And didnt she also leave the secretary of state's post because of health issues?

  9. #2949
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Nah, 70 is not too old. I don't think she left because of health issues but its possible that health issues keep her from running.

  10. #2950
    International Captain LongHopCassidy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ganeshran View Post
    She will be pushing 70 by 2016, way too old to run for a presidency IMO. And didnt she also leave the secretary of state's post because of health issues?
    It's a ****ing hard, long, debilitating, jetlagtastic job. Only one worse I would wager was Geithner's Treasury gig. Not surprised either of them wanted to gtfo.

  11. #2951
    Hall of Fame Member Goughy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    Nah, 70 is not too old. I don't think she left because of health issues but its possible that health issues keep her from running.
    I believe her to be healthy enough to run but unfortunately, if she decides to, the health issues will provide further ammunition for her detractors.
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  12. #2952
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    Well if the opponent is Christie, I don't they'll go down that route...

    But it won't be Christie - it's a long way for him to win the primary.

  13. #2953
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Uppercut's Avatar
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    Obviously Clinton's national profile negates it to an extent but people really don't generally respond well to older women.
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  14. #2954
    The Wheel is Forever silentstriker's Avatar
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    IN a very preliminary poll - she beats out every single Republican candidate nationally.

  15. #2955
    Cricket Web: All-Time Legend Samuel_Vimes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silentstriker View Post
    IN a very preliminary poll - she beats out every single Republican candidate nationally.
    Yeah, but well known pollies do that. GWB would probably beat out every single Repub candidate.
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