The American Politics thread

[silentstriker]

Hahahaha, wow. So much for "80% my friend is not 20% my enemy" Ronald Reagan.

Dead serious, though, about what I was telling PEWS on MSN. This party has two options.

1. Fundamental reform towards a genuine, moderate libertarian centre-right party which does the sort of coalition, compromise politics of which their hero was known for, or:
2. Die, so one can take its place.

Looks like a lot of people are taking option 2.

EDIT: On one level it's worrying, though. That's not just ideological purity. That's flat out fanaticism and that **** is dangerous. It's two steps away from wiring bombs in a cave.

I have to disagree. Romney still won 48% of the vote. He lost because of one thing only - demographics. If he had gotten the same number of hispanic votes as George Bush did in 2004, he might have won, or at least come extremely close.

They don't have to moderate on anything, save one: immigration. Many hispanics are socially conservative, and many of them are fiscally so as well. No party in history has shot themselves in the foot as much as Republicans have done with the hispanic vote. They are almost a 'natural' constituency for them.

They'll figure it out and listen to people like Rubio or Jeb Bush. Once that happens, I don't see how they have to change anything else to be competitive again.

[Spark]

I have to disagree. Romney still won 48% of the vote. He lost because of one thing only - demographics. If he had gotten the same number of hispanic votes as George Bush did in 2004, he might have won, or at least come extremely close.

They don't have to moderate on anything, save one: immigration. Many hispanics are socially conservative, and many of them are fiscally so as well. No party in history has shot themselves in the foot as much as Republicans have done with the hispanic vote. They are almost a 'natural' constituency for them.

They'll figure it out and listen to people like Rubio or Jeb Bush. Once that happens, I don't see how they have to change anything else to be competitive again.

Moderation on immigration will take a fundamental shift in attitude in the party base - and it can't be denied that social issues are hurting them too. That gender gap is unsustainable for them, as is the huge margins the Dems rack up in the young vote. Yes, Romney won 48% of the vote, but he lost almost all the swing states, he lost many of them by 5% margins - so it wasn't even close! - and the demographic trends are killing them. And he won 48% in an economy with 7.8% unemployment, against a president whose signature reform outside of the swing states is still mildly unpopular, and who by and large has been a disappointment? And they only won 48%?

It's not just a case of "oh if we fix immigration it'll go away". It won't. It's more systemic than that. A significant portion of this party - to be fair, mostly the non-establishment parts - simply no longer understand the country they live in. Look at how they're approaching the demographic issues that are crippling them: "oh if we put Rubio in it'll be OK" as if a guy speaking Spanish will be enough. Not "hey, all these people who hate us - they're people and Americans with actual issues which we have done a terrible job of acknowledging".

A lot was made of the D+7 "oversampling" on the polls (as it's historically R+2). May I mildly suggest that it's because the GOP has gone so bat**** insane that moderates, even moderate conservatives who will still side with the Republican, no longer wish to identify as Republicans. Look at the moderates: they sided overwhelmingly with Obama.

Long term, it is not feasible to run a political party by denying reality. We saw that last night. The shift I'm talking about is quite simple: get off bull**** mountain.

[Prince EWS]

EDIT: On one level it's worrying, though. That's not just ideological purity. That's flat out fanaticism and that **** is dangerous. It's two steps away from wiring bombs in a cave.

Yep; the bloke isn't even an extremist in terms of his political views. The real worrying thing is how absurdly extreme he is his intended actions, and how unwavering his (extreme or otherwise) ideology is.

That sort of post is as disturbing as it humorous. I would've thought it a parody had I not been formerly a regular reader of that website and known of its legitimacy. I'd love to be able to send them an email suggesting they lost a reader based on that post but in reality they lost me a while back, and I'm sure they'd not care too much anyway; it's not like I can vote - or help them destroy the electoral process - or whatever they're going for these days anyway.

1. Fundamental reform towards a genuine, moderate libertarian centre-right party

Ultimately though that's exactly what Mr. Dondero wants. Barring his views on foreign policy, he's a long, long way from being a social conservative. He's just evidently a bit of a nutter, sadly. I'm beginning to think it's part of the problem; a lot of the people who could help drive the party into actually standing for small government, liberty and conservative economic management seem to be as bat**** insane as people like Santorum, although obviously in other ways...

[Spark]

Yep; the bloke isn't even an extremist in terms of his political views. The real worrying thing is how absurdly extreme he is his intended actions, and how unwavering his (extreme or otherwise) ideology is.

That sort of post is as disturbing as it humorous. I would've thought it a parody had I not been formerly a regular reader of that website and known of its legitimacy. I'd love to be able to send them an email suggesting they lost a reader based on that post but in reality they lost me a while back, and I'm sure they'd not care too much anyway; it's not like I can vote - or help them destroy the electoral process - or whatever they're going for these days anyway.



Ultimately though that's exactly what Mr. Dondero wants. Barring his views on foreign policy, he's a long, long way from being a social conservative. He's just evidently a bit of a nutter, sadly. I'm beginning to think it's part of the problem; a lot of the people who could help drive the party into actually standing for small government, liberty and conservative economic management seem to be as bat**** insane as people like Santorum, although obviously in other ways...

Right, and that's the problem. Their base is no longer in touch with reality. If you're not in touch with reality, how can you win a majority of the population who do live in the real world?

Why the GOP Will Double Down on a Losing Strategy | TIME.com

I mean, the keyword in all that is moderate. The Clinton/Obama axis has turned the Democratic Party from an executive minority from 1970-1990 to a executive majority since. How? By becoming a centre-left party. Ideologues do not win presidential elections. Not a coincidence that Romney's bounce came when he tried to shift to the centre too.

EDIT: In a way, the whole Nate Silver spat is emblematic of all this.

EDIT2: You'd have gotten juicy odds on the Dems gaining Senate seats this time last year, too. Also emblematic.

[grecian]

Florida still not in yet? Surely they've got to sort that cluster-**** up by next time

[silentstriker]

Haha, don't bet on it. If 2000 didn't fix it..

[Spark]

Hearing that it'll take 'til Saturday. I know, I know...

Meanwhile, nine days after being hit by a hurricane and record storm surge, New York and New Jersey are now buried under several feet of snow.

[Spikey]

spark decided to write an article: GOP super PACs: Republican donors spent millions on TV ads and got almost nothing in return. - Slate Magazine

[Spark]

****, this punditry **** is easy as.

[Fusion]

How Obama's data crunchers helped him win

A fascinating read on how the "scientists" helped Obama to better fund raise and maximize ads purchase.

[silentstriker]

Moderation on immigration will take a fundamental shift in attitude in the party base - and it can't be denied that social issues are hurting them too. That gender gap is unsustainable for them, as is the huge margins the Dems rack up in the young vote. Yes, Romney won 48% of the vote, but he lost almost all the swing states, he lost many of them by 5% margins - so it wasn't even close! - and the demographic trends are killing them. And he won 48% in an economy with 7.8% unemployment, against a president whose signature reform outside of the swing states is still mildly unpopular, and who by and large has been a disappointment? And they only won 48%?

It's not just a case of "oh if we fix immigration it'll go away". It won't. It's more systemic than that. A significant portion of this party - to be fair, mostly the non-establishment parts - simply no longer understand the country they live in. Look at how they're approaching the demographic issues that are crippling them: "oh if we put Rubio in it'll be OK" as if a guy speaking Spanish will be enough. Not "hey, all these people who hate us - they're people and Americans with actual issues which we have done a terrible job of acknowledging".

A lot was made of the D+7 "oversampling" on the polls (as it's historically R+2). May I mildly suggest that it's because the GOP has gone so bat**** insane that moderates, even moderate conservatives who will still side with the Republican, no longer wish to identify as Republicans. Look at the moderates: they sided overwhelmingly with Obama.

Long term, it is not feasible to run a political party by denying reality. We saw that last night. The shift I'm talking about is quite simple: get off bull**** mountain.

While immigration might require a 'fundamental' shift in the base - that won't matter. Think about this: George Bush was pro immigration reform, as are: Jeb Bush, Rick Perry and Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio have a decent chance of being on the ticket, and most of the rest are pretty pro-immigration reform too - even Gingrich. The candidates are way to the left of much of the base on this issue - the base simply won't have a real choice but to go along because the leadership knows it's an issue that will permanently kill them. Plus, there are enough other issues that a candidate going to the left on this one issue won't be the death of them.

[Ikki]

Agree with Manan. There is quite a big overstatement re the nation rejecting the Rs/their platform. They were only 2% less then the Ds which is the 6th closest popular vote in American election history. It's also much closer than 4 years ago (7% v 2%) which actually shows a shift towards them, not away from them:

Obama?s Diverse Base of Support - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

[Burgey]

Nah, Spark & Cribb. All republicans are extremists. All of them. That's why they'll be first up against the wall.....

.

[silentstriker]

Iran fired at unarmed US drone, Pentagon says | Fox News

LOL how do you miss a drone twice? FFS. So hilarious. Now that the election is over, I hope something sane happens re: Iran. Though if they keep doing this crap, maybe 'bombs away' is on the cards.

[Jono]

I have to disagree. Romney still won 48% of the vote.

Purely because of the economy. Unlikely they'll get a chance to have a Democratic President heading into an economy in this state with this much unemployment again.